The War in the Ukraine

This recent escalation is a direct result of Russian failure and p*ssyfooting in Ukraine.
After more than a year of the Russian military "advancing" backwards losing one territory that they previously controled in one "5D chess move" after another, the frustration that certain armed Russian factions (not just Wagner) was boiling up till it reached this point.

Some of the delusional pro Russia people were always saying that what was happening with Wagner was just theatrics to fool rthe Ukrainians, some of them kept on saying that till the very last moment when Putin gave his speech.

Regarding the role that Kadyrov played in Ukraine, nowadays the Akhmat force in Ukraine is mostly just a tiktok force, they are far much less important than Wagner.

If you are that much incapable of winning a war then just don't start it to begin with.

Rostov citizens are starting to confront Wagner after Putin's speech.


The reason why the vast majority of Russian Telegrams and Russian politicians support "the government" is because the government is basically Putin. A man who has the nation's implicit trust, whether you like him or not.

I'm not a Kremlinologist (even though most Kremlinologist tend to be full of bullshit) but it's quite obvious that Prigozhin has consistenly overplayed his hand.

In my opinion, the only reason his antics were tolerated, were due to the incredible tolerance of Putin who still saw Wagner as an effective and useful force despite the occasional embarrassment and headaches that Prigozhin created. But there is absolutely no tolerance for armed rebellion of any kind. My interpretation is that the last 36 hours was Putin basically getting informed, and formulating a response. "Defecting" Russian soldiers are not defecting. They're simply confused soldiers who don't want to shoot fellow brother-in-arms without a direct order. A direct order that was not given by Putin.


The only thing this has demonstrated to me, is that Putin's grip on the country is iron-clad. And there is nobody in the military who is even remotely thinking of coup-ing Putin. He is completely in control. Without a doubt.

How well Wagner is eradicated is probably going to come down to how well the MoD handles it, but I don't see any world where Wagner comes into Moscow and takes Putin hostage.

Temstar said:

Full statement from Kadyrov:


Of all the possible people that might support a rebellion Kadyrov is probably top of the list. If Prigozhin can't even get Kadyrov to side with him or sit out then he's done.

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Ever since the end of the Chechen conflict, Kadyrov would always try to impress Putin with his loyalty to gain more influence, he has always been a loyal soldier of Putin, Kadyrov is the last person on earth I would expect to go against Putin.

HighGround said:

Rostov citizens are starting to confront Wagner after Putin's speech.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672525243942830083

The reason why the vast majority of Russian Telegrams and Russian politicians support "the government" is because the government is basically Putin. A man who has the nation's implicit trust, whether you like him or not.

I'm not a Kremlinologist (even though most Kremlinologist tend to be full of bullshit) but it's quite obvious that Prigozhin has consistenly overplayed his hand.

In my opinion, the only reason his antics were tolerated, were due to the incredible tolerance of Putin who still saw Wagner as an effective and useful force despite the occasional embarrassment and headaches that Prigozhin created. But there is absolutely no tolerance for armed rebellion of any kind. My interpretation is that the last 36 hours was Putin basically getting informed, and formulating a response. "Defecting" Russian soldiers are not defecting. They're simply confused soldiers who don't want to shoot fellow brother-in-arms without a direct order. A direct order that was not given by Putin.


The only thing this has demonstrated to me, is that Putin's grip on the country is iron-clad. And there is nobody in the military who is even thinking of coup-ing Putin. He is completely in control. Without a doubt.

How well Wagner is eradicated is probably going to come down to how well the MoD handles it, but I don't see any world where Wagner comes into Moscow and takes Putin hostage.

Click to expand...

...What is Medvedev doing?

Putin better hope he is on his side. Because if that is not the case, the balance of forces might actually favor Prigozhin right now...!

If we strip back all the spin and propaganda to look at the root reason for Prigozhin’s supposed rebellion, it’s what? That Russia isn’t fighting Ukraine hard enough and that Wagner soldiers are dying needlessly, sometimes to Russian regular forces deliberate attacks.

Even if both of the above are true, does that leave open armed rebellion as the only and best response? To accept that is to accept that Prigozhin cares more about the dog soldiers under his command than his own wealth, position, power and even life. And what does this mutiny do to the men on the line in Ukraine? If he cares so much about the lives of the men, why would be basically be signing all their death warrants by doing this now, while Ukraine is on the offensive and still have significant reserves left to commit?

Given how much the west has vilified and sanctioned Wagner and Prigozhin personally, can even their MSM summon up the mental gymnastics needed to now praise and support him? Because without powerful outside support, what can 25k men really do in a country the size of Russia?

Even if Russian SMO losses are as high as Prigozhin is claiming, that still leaves all the conscripts, police, Rovosguard, secret services and the entire Russian Air Force at the disposal of Putin and the military leadership. If the situation is dire enough, Putin can also invoke CIS and SCO counter terrorism clauses and ask for foreign troops directly to prop him up. Not that Putin would need it, since he enjoys real and widespread grassroots support from the people of Russia.

All of that is to say Wagner has no hope in hell of pulling this off, because even if the entire Russian military sided with him or stands aside, Putin can still summon enough men with guns to put Wagner down many times over.

You do not become the leader of Wagner in a country like Russia by being a stupid bleeding heart emotional mess. I have heard of a lot of bad things said about Prigozhin, and I have never heard him mocked as stupid or a bleeding heart. Quite the opposite actually.

Right now, there is a lot of smoke and no real fire. A few downed helicopters and blown up trucks is nothing in the grand scheme of things, and basically almost inevitable due to itchy trigger fingers on both sides.

In fact, there is too much smoke, because if things are even remotely as bad as social media is making it out to be, we shouldn’t be seeing anything at all. Putin would have pulled the plug on all civilian comms already.

The best parallel is the actual coup attempt on Turkey. Make a checklist of key things that happened in Turkey and didn’t and isn’t happening now in Russia and see just how monumentally far from a coup this cosplay is.

I have my theories on why Prigozhin is doing this and what the end game is supposed to be, but not sure if that is within the rules here.

Temstar said:

Full statement from Kadyrov:


Of all the possible people that might support a rebellion Kadyrov is probably top of the list. If Prigozhin can't even get Kadyrov to side with him or sit out then he's done.

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It should not be a surprize. It all started a week ago when Putin refer to Zelensky religion repeatedly in front of Arab audience. they may be using Wagner to create situation for wider purge. Is this Wagner a German name.

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Once again, he recalled that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky was "a man with Jewish blood" in his veins.

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What a shitshow!

The russians weren't hard enough against the ukranians and now they have to fight hard against others russians.

The west is enjoying this and certainly will encourage division in Russia. China must stay alert. If Russia falls, the west will make them vassals and demand obedience to its rules and China could lose an important ally and be the next.

So apparently not a warplane but an AN-26 transport plane was shot down. Amusing how the Prigozhin says his not a traitor while committing treasonous acts.


Another helicopter reportedly shot down in Voronezh

What are the chances Prigozhin stepping down his action btw knowing the odds aren't in favour of him currently?

FriedButter said:

Another helicopter reportedly shot down in Voronezh

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672537500131229697

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Too much smoke for a helicopter.