The War in the Ukraine

Broccoli said:

Reports from many sources suggests RU security units aren't fighting againts Wagner. No wonder those two generals looked so worried.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672500870947254273

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Transcript of this twitterthread:

1/ Russia's security forces are reported to be in disarray following the attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group. It seems to have been perfectly timed for a moment – Friday night – when many personnel were too drunk to respond quickly, while others are refusing to fight Wagner.

2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports what its sources are saying is the situation within various security organisations. At the FSB and Ministry of Internal Affairs, "Everyone is up and running, urgently reporting in. Now all the offices are like one big after-party."

3/ "80 per cent of the staff smell of booze. Some of them can barely stand on their feet. Can't arm 'em, can't send 'em anywhere. Friday night's the perfect time to start something like this. Everybody's standing around, waiting for something. No introductions."

4/ "A couple of hours more and the conflicts among themselves will start when [the alcohol] starts to wear off."

5/ Unwillingness to fight Wagner appears to be a common theme. "There is real panic in Rostov, especially among the police. There is more than a 40 percent shortfall in personnel among those called up in connection with Operation Fortress" (to defend security installations).

6/ Wagner forces were able to cross the border from Ukraine without opposition, despite orders not to let them through. "Both the border service of the FSB and the Interior Ministry received instructions to stop the Wagner PMC. No one is complying, as it is not realistic."

7/ Most ominously for the Kremlin, elements of the security forces appear to be actively siding with Wagner or refusing to act against it.

8/ "The defence ministry has lost control over a number of units and formations of the South Eastern Military District, it will not be possible to organise defence by the Rosgvardia [Russian National Guard] and the FSB. Local leaders are extremely careful in their statements".

9/ "Attempts to counter Prigozhin are only going through the FSB and the National Guard. The Ministry of Defence has simply withdrawn, junior officers either refuse to follow orders or directly support Wagner."

10/ And Shoigu and the [MOD leadership] team just hid and completely lost touch with reality. The fear is obviously serious." Wagner is reported to be directly taking control of some South Eastern Military District units.

11/ "A number of units of the Ministry of Defence that participated in the war are beginning to come under the command of Wagner. Entire corps. Shoigu and Gerasimov's people are being removed."

12/ General Gerasimov himself has not been seen in public since the mutiny began. According to Wagner channels, he was in Rostov when it fell to Wagner forces.

13/ He is said to have "escaped from the Rostov [military] headquarters along with people loyal to him” and “is holed up in a civilian apartment with his friends in Rostov.” /end

tankphobia said:

So what will happen to Wagners overseas operations? If Russia declare Wagner as treasonous does that mean they are will not longer be allowed to be resupplied via Russia?

I note that this is off topic, can this be moved to the Russian military thread?

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Nothing unless they go support it. Anyone who wants to disassociated themselves are being asked to. I doubt anyone stationed hundreds of miles away is going rebel against who exactly. The foreign embassy?

Do we have a good outside source for the developments regarding Wagner? The usual Russian sources cannot be trusted anymore since they will either just repeat pro govt talking points or they will just keep their mouth shut because if any one dares say anything pro Wagner they could be labeled as being pro criminals/terrorists since that is how Prigozhen and some of Wagner are being labeled as now.

In any case what happened is a sign of the extent of corruption that is present in Moscow. What started as a mere disagreament over what military strategy Russia should follow gradualy escalated first during the battle of Bakhmut and then in Moscow till it reached this point.

Now Prigozhen will either be jailed or killed, some Wagner troops have already died and more will either be jailed or killed while the majority of the rest of Wagner will try to stay out of it.
Wagner is largely finished now, they already suffered massive casulaties in Bakhmut and now their moral has hit rock bottom since the Russian military targeted them.

I don't think Russia will go back to recruiting more prisoners as soldiers, that experiment has reached it's failure of an end.

The excitement in western media over how this is going to destabilize Russia and win the war for the Ukraine is baffling to me. If indeed Prigozhin is the "hardliner option", and the other side is the Kremlin, who also want to continue the war in the Ukraine, I don't see how either option is good for the Ukrainians.

There is no peace faction in play here, and the line soldiers on both sides don't seem to be too eager to fight each other, so a massive civil war isn't going to happen, either. One side is probably going to get a quick and relatively bloodless win over the other and come out stronger than before.

Tootensky said:

The excitement in western media over how this is going to destabilize Russia and win the war for the Ukraine is baffling to me. If indeed Prigozhin is the "hardliner option", and the other side is the Kremlin, who also want to continue the war in the Ukraine, I don't see how either option is good for the Ukrainians.

There is no peace faction in play here, and the line soldiers on both sides don't seem to be too eager to fight each other, so a massive civil war isn't going to happen, either. One side is probably going to get a quick and relatively bloodless win over the other and come out stronger than before.

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Wagner group's leader said the war is based on a lie to promote a guy to Marshal. That basically means he intends peace?

sequ said:

1/ Russia's security forces are reported to be in disarray following the attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group. It seems to have been perfectly timed for a moment – Friday night – when many personnel were too drunk to respond quickly, while others are refusing to fight Wagner.

2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports what its sources are saying is the situation within various security organisations. At the FSB and Ministry of Internal Affairs, "Everyone is up and running, urgently reporting in. Now all the offices are like one big after-party."

3/ "80 per cent of the staff smell of booze. Some of them can barely stand on their feet. Can't arm 'em, can't send 'em anywhere. Friday night's the perfect time to start something like this. Everybody's standing around, waiting for something. No introductions."

4/ "A couple of hours more and the conflicts among themselves will start when [the alcohol] starts to wear off."

5/ Unwillingness to fight Wagner appears to be a common theme. "There is real panic in Rostov, especially among the police. There is more than a 40 percent shortfall in personnel among those called up in connection with Operation Fortress" (to defend security installations).

6/ Wagner forces were able to cross the border from Ukraine without opposition, despite orders not to let them through. "Both the border service of the FSB and the Interior Ministry received instructions to stop the Wagner PMC. No one is complying, as it is not realistic."

7/ Most ominously for the Kremlin, elements of the security forces appear to be actively siding with Wagner or refusing to act against it.

8/ "The defence ministry has lost control over a number of units and formations of the South Eastern Military District, it will not be possible to organise defence by the Rosgvardia [Russian National Guard] and the FSB. Local leaders are extremely careful in their statements".

9/ "Attempts to counter Prigozhin are only going through the FSB and the National Guard. The Ministry of Defence has simply withdrawn, junior officers either refuse to follow orders or directly support Wagner."

10/ And Shoigu and the [MOD leadership] team just hid and completely lost touch with reality. The fear is obviously serious." Wagner is reported to be directly taking control of some South Eastern Military District units.

11/ "A number of units of the Ministry of Defence that participated in the war are beginning to come under the command of Wagner. Entire corps. Shoigu and Gerasimov's people are being removed."

12/ General Gerasimov himself has not been seen in public since the mutiny began. According to Wagner channels, he was in Rostov when it fell to Wagner forces.

13/ He is said to have "escaped from the Rostov [military] headquarters along with people loyal to him” and “is holed up in a civilian apartment with his friends in Rostov.” /end

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Source ?

Temstar said:

Prigozhin's position is not peace, Prigozhin's position is best summed up as "why are we calling this a SMO instead of declaring this as a proper war, mobilize a million men and march until we're at the Polish border?"

This is why people joke that the more time passes the more he's becoming like Igor Girkin.

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TK3600 said:

Wagner group's leader said the war is based on a lie to promote a guy to Marshal. That basically means he intends peace?

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Surely, both of you can't be right?

Stierlitz said:

Source ?

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It's in the reaction I quoted from @Broccoli

sequ said:

1/ Russia's security forces are reported to be in disarray following the attempted mutiny by the Wagner Group. It seems to have been perfectly timed for a moment – Friday night – when many personnel were too drunk to respond quickly, while others are refusing to fight Wagner.

2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports what its sources are saying is the situation within various security organisations. At the FSB and Ministry of Internal Affairs, "Everyone is up and running, urgently reporting in. Now all the offices are like one big after-party."

3/ "80 per cent of the staff smell of booze. Some of them can barely stand on their feet. Can't arm 'em, can't send 'em anywhere. Friday night's the perfect time to start something like this. Everybody's standing around, waiting for something. No introductions."

4/ "A couple of hours more and the conflicts among themselves will start when [the alcohol] starts to wear off."

5/ Unwillingness to fight Wagner appears to be a common theme. "There is real panic in Rostov, especially among the police. There is more than a 40 percent shortfall in personnel among those called up in connection with Operation Fortress" (to defend security installations).

6/ Wagner forces were able to cross the border from Ukraine without opposition, despite orders not to let them through. "Both the border service of the FSB and the Interior Ministry received instructions to stop the Wagner PMC. No one is complying, as it is not realistic."

7/ Most ominously for the Kremlin, elements of the security forces appear to be actively siding with Wagner or refusing to act against it.

8/ "The defence ministry has lost control over a number of units and formations of the South Eastern Military District, it will not be possible to organise defence by the Rosgvardia [Russian National Guard] and the FSB. Local leaders are extremely careful in their statements".

9/ "Attempts to counter Prigozhin are only going through the FSB and the National Guard. The Ministry of Defence has simply withdrawn, junior officers either refuse to follow orders or directly support Wagner."

10/ And Shoigu and the [MOD leadership] team just hid and completely lost touch with reality. The fear is obviously serious." Wagner is reported to be directly taking control of some South Eastern Military District units.

11/ "A number of units of the Ministry of Defence that participated in the war are beginning to come under the command of Wagner. Entire corps. Shoigu and Gerasimov's people are being removed."

12/ General Gerasimov himself has not been seen in public since the mutiny began. According to Wagner channels, he was in Rostov when it fell to Wagner forces.

13/ He is said to have "escaped from the Rostov [military] headquarters along with people loyal to him” and “is holed up in a civilian apartment with his friends in Rostov.” /end

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A lot of these statements sound like speculation, especially one about Gerasimov. Prigozhin was earlier saying that him and Shoigu ran away. There was also information that FSB ordered to let Wagner pass through borders because they would be unable to stop them.

Russian National Guard (trucks) is reportedly at Rostov.