The War in the Ukraine

Overbom said:

Such a public message means that this is now a life or death battle. Just a reminder that for a person facing potential death, there might be no moral bottom line, no family, no country, no values, no anything. Said person will do everything he can to win the battle in order to not die.

Russia is now at a potential historic turning point

Click to expand...

When Wu Sangui opened the fateful gate of Shanhai Guan to the Manchu, he had his reasons. As an imperial general, the rebellion from Li Zicheng seemed the most urgent. And allowing the Manchu in to 'help' didn't seem so bad.

Yet opening the gate sealed China's fate. The new dynasty led to the stagnation of the empire and the century of humiliation.

The Russian nmilitary can only concentrate on one fight. It is either Ukraine or Wagner. It can't be both. If they fight against Wagner, the Ukranians will exploit it and punch through their defensive lines. If they stay at their positions, Wagner has a free ride to Moscow.

Who is going to stop a battle hardened military force armed with tanks and APC's? Police and national guard like troops?

99PLAAFBalloons said:

Things feel like they’ve gone too far for this to be a psyop now. Accusing Prigozhin of high treason isn’t reversible and is gutting Wagner, a figurehead and respected element of the conflict, worth it to goad a few more Ukrainians into the meat grinder or draw out a few fifth columnists? I’m pretty sceptical of this

Click to expand...

A psyop implies that it’s mostly taking place the the realm of the mind, this is actually happening however, and will draw resources away from the war in ukraine.

Reports from many sources suggests RU security units aren't fighting againts Wagner. No wonder those two generals looked so worried.

99PLAAFBalloons said:

Things feel like they’ve gone too far for this to be a psyop now. Accusing Prigozhin of high treason isn’t reversible and is gutting Wagner, a figurehead and respected element of the conflict, worth it to goad a few more Ukrainians into the meat grinder or draw out a few fifth columnists? I’m pretty sceptical of this

Click to expand...

People always tend to think about conspiracies. For me, I usually prefer to go with the straightforward answer, that this whole thing is a coup/mutiny/etc.

As for the people who say this is just a Putin-Wagner internal plan to fool the Ukrainians, I think they are just coping

Broccoli said:

Prigozhin said that Russian military has suffered massive casulaties what are being hidden.

Maybe RU military isn't that interested fighting against Wagner?

Click to expand...

In an interview he gave on June 6, Prigozhin stated he believes that the number of dead Russian citizens is under 50,000 people.

FairAndUnbiased said:

When Wu Sangui opened the fateful gate of Shanhai Guan to the Manchu, he had his reasons. As an imperial general, the rebellion from Li Zicheng seemed the most urgent. And allowing the Manchu in to 'help' didn't seem so bad.

Yet opening the gate sealed China's fate. The new dynasty led to the stagnation of the empire and the century of humiliation.

Click to expand...

Being a leader/politician/commander means that you must have the ability to gasp people's hearts.

Putin (head of the fish, that's where the responsibility falls) deciding to rein in Wagner while Russia is still in active war means that he has no idea what "people's hearts" even mean.

CrazyHorse said:

A psyop implies that it’s mostly taking place the the realm of the mind, this is actually happening however, and will draw resources away from the war in ukraine.

Click to expand...

Chances are it may not be significantly impactful. Mainly because the Russians are not on the offensive but sitting on the defensive.

—————————

Wagner leaving Voronezh. Already 10km north of the city. 40-50 Equipment recorded includes tanks, MLRS, and Grad systems.

99PLAAFBalloons said:

Things feel like they’ve gone too far for this to be a psyop now. Accusing Prigozhin of high treason isn’t reversible and is gutting Wagner, a figurehead and respected element of the conflict, worth it to goad a few more Ukrainians into the meat grinder or draw out a few fifth columnists? I’m pretty sceptical of this

Click to expand...

Two weeks later Putin and Prigozhin shake hand on TV saying it's all "Just a prank"....

Seriously depends on how loyal the Wagner troops are to Prigozhin this could end in blood bath. Usually mercs only fight for money and will split the moment their life is on the line, however those Wagner guys maybe different from regular mercenaries....

The effect of this internal conflict will likely give Ukraine time to re-arm and re-assess where they want to attack. I find it unlikely that Russia will be able to undergo any major offensive actions as a result of Prigozhin's actions.

I also find it highly unlikely that Prigozhin can win against the Russian State. His days are likely numbered.