The War in the Ukraine

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Relying on mercenaries too much is always a bad idea. Let alone using mercenaries in what is basically your own territory.

1. Wei and later Jin settling Xiongnu and other barbarians in Chinese territory, hiring them as cavalry and giving them steel swords and armor, because they needed to win the War of the Three Kingdoms. What could go wrong?

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2. Romans hiring German foederati to defend their frontiers, drilling them like Roman legions, what could go wrong?

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3. Tang Empire hiring Turkish generals and giving them command right next to the capital of Changan, what could go wrong?

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4. Qing raised regional armies to fight the Taiping rebellion, what could go wrong?

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5. ROC also failed to control regional armies, what could go wrong?

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
On the other hand if you were Russian MoD and you know just as everyone in this thread does that having a powerful PMC in your country is a bad idea long term, sooner or later you will have to make a move to disperse/absorbed Wagner. This sort of thing has happened many times in Chinese history and it's always quite a risky thing, sometimes it works sometimes the person in question refuses to give up his private army and an uprising is kicked off.

Thus MoD might calculate that doing this after the war is even more dangerous than now. AFU counteroffensive is on something of a pause at the moment. Wagner is not manning any front line position and is still in the process of recovering from Bakhmut. Prigozhin's dooming in the face of solid defence of Russian Army is making him unpopular, so why not now?

They gave Prigozhin a pretty good opportunity. If he fades from history now he'll be forever remembered as hero who took Bakhmut. Shoigu was doing that thing making all contractors sign up with army. Prigozhin could have played along and just slowly let Wagner be absorbed back into the army and then fade from limelight. It's unfortunate that Prigozhin decided to resist, yet it doesn't seem like he thought this thing the whole way through and his coup is so far shaping out to be a farce. Now at best he's looking at some serious jail time if not the death penalty.

One wonders how Kadyrov is feeling on this day looking at all this.

There's a big difference between Kadyrov and Akhmat over Wagner. Akhmat is part of the regular Russian military structure, and technically Kadyrov enjoys the rank of Colonel General. The Russians operate similar elite ethnic formations since the Tsarist times. So the Chechen formations, the Ossetian formations and even the Siberian formations are all part of the formal Russian military. It's unusual compared to other military but yet at the same time, traditional and part of their military culture. Akhmat and Kadyrov, are not mercenaries. I heard there's even a recent disagreement beween the Chechens and Wagner.

The Chechens, Ossetians and the Siberians are now engaged in Zaporzhyia. At one time, there were even ethnic Hungarian formations within the Soviet Union. Now that ethnic formation is inherited into Ukraine as the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, ironically fighting the Chechens and Ossetians in Pyatikahty.

There are voluntary formations, not mercenaries, that have signed with their contracts with the MoD, and at least two of these units are in Zaporzhyia front while others are in Kupyansk and in the Krasnyliman direction.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Well, Wagner is not exactly like a lot of those instances. Like I said, they are Russians for the most part, and they are paid salaries, it is not like they are being "paid" with promise to loot the enemy after the battle is over. As for the Warlords, comparing them with someone like Kadyrov is more apt than something like Wagner which is an offshoot of the GRU.
There might be dissent within the Russian military with regards to the overall strategy in the conflict and this might be shown in outburts like these. But IMHO Putin gave these people way too much latitude. This sort of ruffian behaviour should not be accepted in regular military operations. Either you respect the military chain of command or you are kicked out. And Wagner has no right to harass regular Russian military treating them as second class citizens.
Shoigu had the right idea in wanting to directly control the payment mechanism to these mercenary formations. There should be no space for divided loyalties either.
 
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