The War in the Ukraine

enroger said:

I agree Wagner needs to be dissolved, but there is a time and place for everything and this is the absolute worst time for it.

Best move is to never let Wagner form in the first place or at least limit it's size.

Second best move is to try to dissolve Wagner after the war, give Prigozhin some big fat prize to keep him happy or whatever.

Move on them now? In the middle of the war, in the middle of Ukr counteroffensive?

Click to expand...

At the risk of politics, this is much worse since Prigozhin openly went against the war, which is an attack towards Putin himself:

LawLeadsToPeace said:

I found this article to be a pretty good summary of the recent events that unfolded based on the tweets posted here in this thread:

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Russia accuses mercenary boss of armed mutiny after he vows to punish top brass
By Andrew Osborn and Kevin Liffey
June 23, 20234:29 PM PDTUpdated 23 min ago
…
But on Friday he for the first time dismissed Putin's core justifications for invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year.

"The war was needed ... so that Shoigu could become a marshal ... so that he could get a second 'Hero' [of Russia] medal," Prigozhin said in a video clip. "The war wasn't needed to demilitarise or denazify Ukraine."
…

Click to expand...

Prigozhin and Wagner needs to go. Otherwise, the entire command structure of the Russian front is going to crumple as Rostov is a key logistics and C2 hub.

Back to the boring stuff.

I suppose it's Shoigu making due his promise to hit Ukrainian decision making centers

Missile hits Kharkhiv. Something big is burning.


Missile hits the Solomensky district of Kiev.


Sound of explosion in Kirovograd.


New explosions in Dneproprovosk.


In Kiev, a SAM misses again and hits a residential building.

Oh the other hand, if Prigozhin wants to prove his point about Russian losses, he might actually just post accurate loss tallies from within the HQ itself. We might actually get some accurate figure for both Russia losses and what non-inflated Ukranian loss figures look like.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

At the risk of politics, this is much worse since Prigozhin openly went against the war, which is an attack towards Putin himself:

Prigozhin and Wagner needs to go. Otherwise, the entire command structure of the Russian front is going to crumple as Rostov is a key logistics and C2 hub.

Click to expand...

Yikes... that big mouth of his made the situation very much irretrievable, no talking it out now....

enroger said:

I agree Wagner needs to be dissolved, but there is a time and place for everything and this is the absolute worst time for it.

Best move is to never let Wagner form in the first place or at least limit it's size.

Second best move is to try to dissolve Wagner after the war, give Prigozhin some big fat prize to keep him happy or whatever.

Move on them now? In the middle of the war, in the middle of Ukr counteroffensive?

Click to expand...

This is less about Wagner and about a sizeable portion of the Russian military overall being dissatisfied with Shoigu.

Tbh the very existence of such an element, without Shoigu being able to control it, points to the need to replace Shoigu and others under him.

If the troops want a purge of the military, then that is Putin's best recourse. Let as many heads roll as need to roll in order to widen the SMO into a real war. Assume emergency powers and use it to beat the civilian government into submission. Absorb Wagner and other dissatisfied into a new wartime Russian armed forces structure. I guess, that is giving Prigozhin exactly what he wants, legitimacy as a real Russian top brass and potential to be promoted later.

Otherwise, Putin would need to suppress this rebellion using armed force and entrust everything to Shoigu. Who at this point must be considered flaky at best. That seems to me a higher risk option both short, medium and long term.

There is a speech from Putin in 15 mins. Do any of you have that (with english subtitles) ?

nimitz123 said:

There is a speech from Putin in 15 mins. Do any of you have that (with english subtitles) ?

Click to expand...

There isn’t going to be any live translation until some time after he finishes.

Biscuits said:

This is less about Wagner and about a sizeable portion of the Russian military overall being dissatisfied with Shoigu.

Tbh the very existence of such an element, without Shoigu being able to control it, points to the need to replace Shoigu and others under him.

If the troops want a purge of the military, then that is Putin's best recourse. Let as many heads roll as need to roll in order to widen the SMO into a real war. Assume emergency powers and use it to beat the civilian government into submission. Absorb Wagner and other dissatisfied into a new wartime Russian armed forces structure. I guess, that is giving Prigozhin exactly what he wants, legitimacy as a real Russian top brass and potential to be promoted later.

Otherwise, Putin would need to suppress this rebellion using armed force and entrust everything to Shoigu. Who at this point must be considered flaky at best. That seems to me a higher risk option both short, medium and long term.

Click to expand...

Prigozhin is just a business man. There's no way he'd be accepted by the military overall.

Biscuits said:

This is less about Wagner and about a sizeable portion of the Russian military overall being dissatisfied with Shoigu.

Tbh the very existence of such an element, without Shoigu being able to control it, points to the need to replace Shoigu and others under him.

If the troops want a purge of the military, then that is Putin's best recourse. Let as many heads roll as need to roll in order to widen the SMO into a real war. Assume emergency powers and use it to beat the civilian government into submission. Absorb Wagner and other dissatisfied into a new wartime Russian armed forces structure. I guess, that is giving Prigozhin exactly what he wants, legitimacy as a real Russian top brass and potential to be promoted later.

Otherwise, Putin would need to suppress this rebellion using armed force and entrust everything to Shoigu. Who at this point must be considered flaky at best. That seems to me a higher risk option both short, medium and long term.

Click to expand...

Before all this maybe Prigozhin could have been absorbed into the power structure, hell give him Shoigu's seat he earned it. But now, no way, either he die or Putin get couped.

Shoigu is the defense minister. He is a civilian. The idea he is in overall command of operations in Ukraine is far fetched.
He basically takes care that the troops get the equipment, and supplies, etc that they need. He acts as the interface between the government and the military. Overall command of the operation has been done by Gerasimov.

I think the Russian Army has done decently given the operational limitations imposed on them by the Russian government, with the exception of operations around Kharkiv. And I do not mean the withdrawal last summer, I mean the trouble they had controlling the area when the war started out. The withdrawal I consider to have been a failure at the government level rather than the army, Putin, and the defense minister, and army command should have ensured that there were enough troops to adequately man the line at all times. Instead of just waiting for contracts to expire and then facing a rout in Kharkiv. They should have issued a stop loss order.