The War in the Ukraine

Memepons said:

Best not to over think events as they unfold, that just leads to conspiracies blooming. As it stands, Wagner is moving into Rostov if they haven't already seizing the city. It's a long running public dispute with the Russian MOD that goes back to events during the Battle for Bahkmut and came to a head with the recent attempt to force Wagner to sign under the Russian MOD.

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The reason why this is so improbable is who is supposed to gain anything in this? What does Prigozhin think he is going to achieve with this move?

Most importantly, Where does Wagner get their supply and logistics from? I can't imagine they can take care of it by themselves so how long can they even last?

idk who this journalist is but she is claiming the military columns in Rostov is actually Wagner.


Warplanes over Rostov.

enroger said:

The reason why this is so improbable is who is supposed to gain anything in this? What does Prigozhin think he is going to achieve with this move?

Most importantly, Where does Wagner get their supply and logistics from? I can't imagine they can take care of it by themselves so how long can they even last?

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Wagner may have sympathizers from the regular armed forces that just allowed them to just stroll into Rostov. I don’t even remember Wagner fielding T-72B3’s and yet here we are.

enroger said:

The reason why this is so improbable is who is supposed to gain anything in this? What does Prigozhin think he is going to achieve with this move?

Most importantly, Where does Wagner get their supply and logistics from? I can't imagine they can take care of it by themselves so how long can they even last?

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They could be hoping for more elements of the Russian army and other high ranking governments personnel to defect and join them. Quite likely honestly, given the state of the average Russian solider.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Wagner may have sympathizers from the regular armed forces that just allowed them to just stroll into Rostov. I don’t even remember Wagner fielding T-72B3’s and yet here we are.

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If so then it is much bigger than I thought, very juicy indeed, could have huge implication for the world.... Is there any merit to Prigozhin's claim their camp was bombed by Russian forces?

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Wagner may have sympathizers from the regular armed forces that just allowed them to just stroll into Rostov. I don’t even remember Wagner fielding T-72B3’s and yet here we are.

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Wagner had T-90s during their assault on Bakhmut.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Wagner may have sympathizers from the regular armed forces that just allowed them to just stroll into Rostov. I don’t even remember Wagner fielding T-72B3’s and yet here we are.

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To be honest with you, I'd think sympathizers and collaborators are required for Wagner to have rolled into Rostov-on-Don like this. I realize the raiders across the border in the Belgorod region showed there was not much in the way of defenses in places, but, still, this is a significantly bigger operation than a battalion or three.

If there are really 25k men, that's 2 divisions or 30+ early war BTGs. Even if he moved 1/5th of that into Russia and took Rostov, that's a huge group to move without being smacked without someone on the inside at least standing aside. That's a huge drive from even the rear lines of the RUssian forces in the Donbas.

edit: I derped.

Halfway between Rostov and Moscow:


There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen. This is one of those weeks I guess.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

So it looks like the tanks did belong to Wagner. That explains why the recent tweets showed them pointing guns at the building and stacking behind MRAP’s. I wonder if any Rosgvardia and Russian regulars joined them given how Wagner was primarily light infantry.

As for Prigozhin’s plan, let’s avoid speculation for now. The final warning has been given since there has been a flood of speculations that just lead to rabbit holes.

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Is OSINTdefender a reliable source?

Wagner also has T-72 and T-80BV. I don't know what type of T-72 though.