The War in the Ukraine

SteelBird

SteelBird

Colonel
Temstar said:
I was just reading someone's (a Chinese person) alternative theory on why it seems Russia is suddenly having a lot of success with supply interdiction and bombing troop concentrations behind the front line:

China is now sharing real time satellite reconnaissance data with Russia, similar to what NATO is doing with Ukraine.

This vs HUMINT, is there any way to tell which is more likely from how and what targets are struck?
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Sorry but I don't buy this story. Should there be any military assistance from China to Russia, such assistance would be carried out secretly. Otherwise, Ukraine and the West have cried out death and live and screaming for economic sanction against China.

China knows which position it should stand and might not 100% agree to Russia's military action in Ukraine too. The reasons for military action is acceptable but the excuses are too weak to be justified.

PS: @ficker22, I'm a bit bothered with your avatar, do you mind to change it? A gun pointing to another person's head is not something people want to see. I know the photo is from Vietnam war.
 
Z

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Russian military under Putin made some bad choices in peacetime that are now coming to bite them in the posterior. They spread their force over expanded formations and assumed they will fill them in with partial mobilization which never happened. As a result, their BTGs went into war in a state of being seriously deficient in light infantry.

Russia is fighting this war at peace time strength. They are not committing recruits into the fight. Therefore, their pool of available men gets smaller and smaller. Some of their best units were shattered in the first month of the war. The much vaunted and feared Western Military District performed the worst.

Long term, there are serious headwinds ahead for Russia. The Russian military is not set up for general mobilization. They are not the Soviet Union. They don’t have the empty units to take large numbers of recruits.

Because Putin is kicking the can down the road, and avoiding to redefine the “special operation “ into war, Russia is forced to scrape the barrel and consume into battle those units that were reserved for training in time of partial mobilization.

Russia is not the US either: they don’t have training centers where people go to when they enlist in the military. In the Russian military the units themselves take the new men and train them. That’s why all those BTGs were not at full strength in peacetime: they relied on recruits to fill in the allocated empty slots.

However, now that Russia has taken massive losses they were forced to drain a selection of their BTGs of manpower to bring a smaller number of them back to combat readiness. But that means that these drained BTGs will no longer be capable to effectively train recruits in case of partial mobilization. The longer Putin procrastinates with making the hard choices and dithers, the more diminished their ability to recover their fighting strength will be in the future.
 
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BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
SteelBird said:
Sorry but I don't buy this story. Should there be any military assistance from China to Russia, such assistance would be carried out secretly. Otherwise, Ukraine and the West have cried out death and live and screaming for economic sanction against China.

China knows which position it should stand and might not 100% agree to Russia's military action in Ukraine too. The reasons for military action is acceptable but the excuses are too weak to be justified.

PS: @ficker22, I'm a bit bothered with your avatar, do you mind to change it? A gun pointing to another person's head is not something people want to see. I know the photo is from Vietnam war.
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Satellite data and intel is something the Ukrainian and west wouldn't be able to track if there are dedicated data pipes going from China to Russia. Even if there weren't then the data can be send encrypted.

But i also don't buy it if im not mistaken Russia has send multiple satellites into space during this conflict.
During the conflict there were 4 launches with military based payloads according to this source.

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Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530217529678995456
In all, we assess that Russia may field 60-70 more such battalions.

Counting in terms more familiar to the media, that would amount to 30-40 battalion tactical groups (although in practice those formations aren't employed, the Russian army fighting as regiments and brigades).
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Holy moly, up to 40 more BTG equivalent for the Russians on the field by mid Juny without full mobilization.
 
M

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
BlackWindMnt said:
Satellite data and intel is something the Ukrainian and west wouldn't be able to track if there are dedicated data pipes going from China to Russia. Even if there weren't then the data can be send encrypted.

But i also don't buy it if im not mistaken Russia has send multiple satellites into space during this conflict.
During the conflict there were 4 launches with military based payloads according to this source.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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I honestly think the PLA might have quite some interest in actually getting data about the conflict in Ukraine, whether it be from russian satelites or their own.

Basically threat it as training/testing of their systems and people.

Question is if though, if they are only getting from their own satelites or if they are also getting from data from russian site, the later probably/most likely means they might help Russia while the former doesn't could be either (help or not help Russia).

Another thing though, if the China is actually helping Russia, wouldn't the US accuse China of doing so? Afterall they made baseless accusations and lies before, and the US might have some good penetration/intel within Russia.
 
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