The War in the Ukraine

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Those BMPTs have been photographed in the field:
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Not urban environment though, I wonder if they're still good for fighting in open ground.

Shouldn’t matter. BMPTs were designed primarily to take on dug in enemy infantry at medium to close ranges. So long as it’s facing infantry and not enemy heavy armour, there isn’t a huge difference between fighting enemy infantry dug in urban environments or the woods.

If anything, being out in the woods would make the job a lot easier for the BMPTs since there are far fewer places enemy infantry could hide and attack from in the woods. Whereas in urban environments an enemy could be hiding behind any wall and every window, doorway or hole in the wall can be a firing point.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
About Oryx:

A lot of the Russian abandoned or captured equipment is just a picture or screencap of a tank or vehicle. Some are just pictures Russians take with soldiers photoshopped (badly) out.

The other day a picture of M777 was being circulated on Russian telegram channels as captured. Turns out it was a screencap from a video Ukrainians released. If it was the other way Oryx would count that as a Russian loss.

The claim people make that everything is photo verified is a lie as well. Look at the claimed Russian plane losses. The BBC published an unverified story about a geriatric Russian ex general being shot down by a manpad. No pictures or video evidence yet that's counted as a Russian loss. It could be true, but it's not verified, let alone photo verified.

He's also prioritising counting Russian losses and ignoring Ukrainian ones. Ukrainian plane losses from the first week caught on video still haven't been recorded.

All of this been pointed out multiple times in this thread and the last. People can believe what they want but you may as well believe what the Ukrainian MoD or the Pentagon says. It isn't any more credible.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I agree that seems to be the more likely option. Rather than encircle them completely leave an opening like Sun Tzu. But instead of letting them escape allow them to keep sending in more troops and material to reinforce positions. The whole thing becomes a very effective meat grinder.

As it's a pretty big geographical area Russia can keep poking and prodding Ukrainian lines in different positions, forcing them to move around soldiers. It puts a bigger strain on their limited supplies of fuel and vehicles.
To further the idea of 围点打援:

Fully encircle the enemy, you create two options for the encircled. Either they rely on storage and the coming reinforcement and strengthen their resolve to fight to the end. Or their moral collapse and surrender. You want the last, but may get the first.

Partially encircle, you make the defender wonder if they should escape or hold on. That is damaging their resolve and moral. Lack of determination and decision will lead to disaster. There are many examples in China (both ancient and modern) to only encircle the enemy on three sides. In this way, you not only force or lure the reinforcement to move but also the defender to move out to their vulnerability.

One famous example is 长平之战 (Battle of Chang Ping) in 260BC where Qin annihilated Zhao army. Qin faked a defeat and retreat. Zhao army pursued mistakenly left their fortification thinking they have a chance to fight in the open. The result was a disaster for Zhao.

Apparently Ukrainian army is smarter than Zhao so they don't easily fall to the ploy, but Russia can keep trying here and there, sooner or later someone may make a mistake. Winning a war is not about beating the enemy head-on but waiting for the enemy to make mistake.
 

NukedOne

New Member
Registered Member
Back to negotiations topic.
Currently negotiations are not possible. Donbass is not yet fully liberated, so one of officially declared Russian objectives is not achieved. Until then Moscow is not willing to sign a ceasefire agreement and try to fulfill its remaining objectives by negotiations. I even think military operation will continue after Donbass is cleared, to have some territory as a bargaining chip (like it was with parts of Kiev, Sumi and Chernigov regions which were cleared after Istanbul negotiations - Russian army didn't tried to set military administration there).
Kherson region and part of Zaporozhye region are no longer such bargaining chips, and Ukraine will have to cede them if they agree on second (future) Putin's offer.
Ukrainians also not willing to agree on Putin's demands since they got support from West and still have manpower to use supplied weapons (how proficient this usage is another question). So now they are trying to create a decisive numeric superiority with enough artillery and air support (from Western supplies) to launch a major offensive operation with aim to kick Russians out of Ukrainian territory or at least inflict heavy losses to Russian army so it won't be able to launch any offensives itself.
In the meantime they trading barely trained conscripts and some towns in the east for time to receive Western equipment from lend-lease and train another portion of conscripts and some professional soldiers to operate said Western equipment.
They probably bet everything on this since if this fail, they will loose all trained troops, most of equipment and ability to bargain any good deal for themselves. Third offer from Putin will most likely include Odessa, Nikolaev and Kharkov.
Also it should be noted, that Ukrainian ability to fight protracted war entirety depends on Western support. Ukrainian economy is toast and on life support from West (which is not infinite). If they want to survive as state they need to finish this war till winter one way or another.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
What happens if they are given these weapons and Russia escalates and beats the sh1t out of them ? do they send F35s ?

Hunter Killer Drones. The MIC seems to be bickering for Congress to send them drones as their airforce replacement.

Kyiv reportedly met with the major defense contractor General Atomics about obtaining the “Hunter-Killer” MQ-9 Reaper drone

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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
What happens if they are given these weapons and Russia escalates and beats the sh1t out of them ? do they send F35s ?
They will be grinded like the other shipments in the east or they will reinforce Odessa with all they get to make it untakable. Russian are taking a beating but they are advancing each day where it counts.

Ukraine would not crying all over the place for new equipments if they are not losing them, they would ask for ammo only. Ammo need no training associated, are less difficult and faster to field.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Hunter Killer Drones. The MIC seems to be bickering for Congress to send them drones as their airforce replacement.
Ah, the latest wunderwaffe. It's a bigger version of the Bayraktar. The Houthis had no problem shooting them down and I doubt the Russians will either. I guess either the Americans are unhappy with the TB2 or they're sick of paying the Turks for all the ones the Ukrainians keep losing.

The only issue would be that these could be piloted by American operators based in America. That's a step closer to war.
 
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