Tochka-B has 120km range. The Ukrainians also have the Vilkha-M MLRS with 130km range and GPS guided rounds. This M270 system has 100km range supposedly. I am not saying it won't have an impact but it won't offer any new capability over their existing systems.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Oryx has several problems, the biggest of which is that it does not provide the primary source of photographic evidence. That's why I don't like to use the site as a loss comparison, because we don't even have a way to dispute any photo, because it doesn't provide the primary sources, some photos are highly dubious, especially from the Russian side.
When did I say I trust Oryx?
"Probably" is an answer from someone who doesn't even provide evidence to support the argument, I can also say "probably" that the Russians have less than a thousand BMP-3's, I have some sources to support my argument. You have?
I vaguely remember a video that the AFU's T-72M1 was actually being attacked, but I don't remember much of the video or its conclusion.
Yes, plus I think he was being very selective with his examples of strategic depth. South Vietnam had strategic depth too, as did the Afghan regime but both were defeated decisively. It's a good thing to have but he's overestimating it's importance.
I agree that seems to be the more likely option. Rather than encircle them completely leave an opening like Sun Tzu. But instead of letting them escape allow them to keep sending in more troops and material to reinforce positions. The whole thing becomes a very effective meat grinder.
As it's a pretty big geographical area Russia can keep poking and prodding Ukrainian lines in different positions, forcing them to move around soldiers. It puts a bigger strain on their limited supplies of fuel and vehicles.
I have sort of followed the Russian military build up on and off for like 6 years already. I have read reports by people who follow this more accurately than I do. Like guys who create ORBAT reports. It was quite clear the Russians were preparing for something massive for quite some time already. The numbers of BMP-3 are easy to extrapolate. Take your own precious Military Balance report for the year 2014 and plug in the purchase orders I mentioned. 100 more vehicles a year. Over a thousand BMP-3 is quite accurate.
I find it difficult to believe that Oryx was the source of the data. Because according to them, Russia suffered 410 destroyed tanks and 247 captured.
The table method is simple:
For lack of other information, the author took the Oryx data. He excluded damaged equipment (because it is repairable) as well as those indicated as "abandoned". Because the abandoned equipment is abandoned only at the time of the photo, but in the end it will belong to one of the parties or destroyed. Which will also be reflected in the Oryx data, that is, it creates a double standard. That's why the Oryx data should be treated with a lot of skepticism. But even so, for each technique there is a photo-proof, although without explanation of the definition methodology.
Excel - Russia
Excel - Ukraine
There are also tabs with breakdown by date in the Excel document.
I've not followed the Russian military as closely as you have but that's my assessment as well. I think it was decided back in 2014 and Russia has used the time to prepare for this. I never understood why Putin let Ukraine off so lightly, it now looks like the Minsk agreement was just to buy some time and strengthen economic resilience.
What's more, I think China has been preparing for the past year as well. Almost like Putin gave Xi a little heads up that something big was going to happen.