Dneprovskoye again, this a barrack was hit.
Yes.
Oof, oh that's a lot of dead NATO personnel in one go.
I wonder how the hell did they get that intelligence. HUMINT?
I missed this, but one of the few western analysts who isn't full "Ukraine is winning" has changed his assessment of the war. Pro-Russian channels are already calling him a Washington shill.
The short version is that while he still thinks that the Ukraine forces will be annihilated in the east, but the Ukraine will be using the time bought to create a new army armed with NATO weapons. The $40 billion provided by the west is a game changer, as it exceeds Russia's annual budget, and that Ukraine may be able to grind out a long term stalemate around the Dnieper. Weirdly he goes on to suggest Russia needs to "drastically escalate" their strategy for phase 3, that sounds very close to advising Russia use nuclear weapons against NATO.
That's definitely a possibility, but he's missing a few key points. Even ignoring the PPP disparity, a single transfer of $40 billion isn't the same as an annual budget. Russia's military has been built up with decades worth of military spending.
He's also missing the economic aspect. While Russian oligarchs and lots of businesses that were dependent on the west will be in trouble, the overall economic health of the country is fine. State revenues are higher than ever, and they are only going to get better with wheat prices and so on. Any economic problem Russia has is the exact same the west is experiencing through inflation.
All they need to do is maintain a war that is costing them what the Saudis are spending in Yemen. For America its much worse. This is costing them much more than Iraq or Afghanistan. Ukrainians are losing equipment at a much higher rate than US forces did, and everything Ukraine loses is going to need to be replaced or Ukraine loses combat effectiveness.
Moreover there's the economic cost. Ukraine today is under full naval blockade and has had a lot of their industry damaged. The oil, food and other supplies they they need to stay alive will need to be provided for loans they will never be able to pay back. The $40 billion America sent in aid won't last them through summer in my opinion. I think this war will cost America alone $100 billion a year in aid, which is much more than America was spending in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
We don't know what Putin's plan is. A long drawn out war may be better than a short one if it bankrupts America. That certainly would be better than advising Putin to start escalating the war and risk turning into a nuclear exchange, which is what it sounds like to me. A lot of his articles get translated into Russian and posted on pro-Kremlin channels. Given his former military rank I'm sure people in the Kremlin will be listening to what he has to say.
This was discussed in the SPG thread, but there was never a satisfactory answer. It appears that PLA is using a special unitary 155mm shell vs 2 piece NATO standard. CAESAR isn’t ejecting a casing
I get Scott's point. But you cannot compare Ukraine with either Afghanistan or Vietnam. The terrain is not the same. Why do you think the US is still in Iraq and no longer in Afghanistan? Then you have the cultural and linguistic barrier. Which is close to zero in the Russia and Ukraine conflict. I get that NATO is providing Ukraine with extra strategic depth. But I think his notion that Russia did not expect NATO support to happen is wrong. Russia faced implicit support from the US to its opposing forces on several of its fights already be it in Chechnya, Georgia, or Syria. And the Syrian conflict is one theater which shows possible options. Russia also does not need to take the whole of Ukraine. They can just take everything East of the Dnieper and do a massive aerial bombardment campaign and raze the rest if it comes to that. Without going nuclear. I agree with you that if Russia do use nukes it will be against NATO or NATO forces.I missed this, but one of the few western analysts who isn't full "Ukraine is winning" has changed his assessment of the war. Pro-Russian channels are already calling him a Washington shill.
The short version is that while he still thinks that the Ukraine forces will be annihilated in the east, but the Ukraine will be using the time bought to create a new army armed with NATO weapons. The $40 billion provided by the west is a game changer, as it exceeds Russia's annual budget, and that Ukraine may be able to grind out a long term stalemate around the Dnieper. Weirdly he goes on to suggest Russia needs to "drastically escalate" their strategy for phase 3, that sounds very close to advising Russia use nuclear weapons against NATO.
You cannot trust Oryx's numbers with regards to Ukrainian equipment losses at all. He refuses to update his tables even when people provide him with similar info to what he gets to count Russian equipment losses. And capturing Russian equipment and putting it into operation is not the same thing. A lot of that Russian equipment was abandoned in the first place because of mechanical breakdowns.A table was created with some vehicle information from both sides of the war, based on Oryx data.
It turns out that the Ukrainians have more tanks than they had before the start of the war. I don't trust Oryx, but the information contained in the table that was created is pertinent.
I am not sure if Russia is doing 围点打援. BUT 围点打援 is not about fully encircle the defending force 围点. It is about attacking the reinforcing force 打援 on the move in the open. So long as the enemy tries to re-enforce from one place to the other they are vulnerable and you have a chance to 打援.The positions in Donbass haven't really changed in the past 2 months. Russia hasn't made any significant moves to fully encircle the forces there. If they wanted to they could have, but that doesn't seem part of the plan. Every town "taken" over the past few days seems to be by small reconnaissance forces who've found them completely undefended.
The only reason I think it's being mentioned by the Ukrainians is because the losses of having soldiers in a meat grinder are becoming too much to bear.
however, even with low efficacy, this is having a positive effect on Ukrainian morale. In the first days of the war we saw Ukrainian troops abandon their border posts and run for it. That is why Russian forces made historically unprecedented territorial expansion speeds, literally without historical precedent. on days 2-3, we started getting the flood of aid and fake news, and Ukrainians decided to fight to the death.The key point that was missed here is that only a small portion of the $40 billion will amount to actual military aid given to Ukraine.
Supposedly, $4 bn will be for humanitarian assistance, and $9 bn in economic aid. $6 bn will be for the "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative" (whatever the hell that might be) and $8.7 bn to replenish the depleted stocks of American weapons that have already been given to Ukraine.
Only $4 billion will be directly financed military support for Ukraine. The remaining $36 billion is just a handout for the MIC, as though they aren't already swimming in money. It's not even like this information is being kept secret, a Google search will tell you what the aid package actually includes.
The fact that this guy completely missed how much of the $40 billion is going to Ukraine shows how retarded he is. Too many content creators jumping on the CURRENT THING trying to sound smart. How much can $4 billion actually buy? Maybe a Patriot battery or two. The rest of the $40 billion package will disappear into thin air as usual.
I don't quite get what you mean by this. Here is screen dump at 1:15.They trashed whole damn place (1:15), why not send SU34 to level it!
Russia's artillery in action :
I don't see the published numbers of the BMP-3 as BS, still in 2019 the total number was 720 units in service. There was a contract signed in 2019 for 168 more vehicles to be delivered 2020-2021, I have no doubt that due to Covid-19, the production cadence of the BMP-3 has slowed down.That number of Russian BMP-3 in that table is also BS. Russia has over a thousand BMP-3 vehicles. I did not bother to check the numbers for the other vehicles.