The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Ukraine now says Russia blew up its own lucrative ammonia pipeline. As a part of the grain deal, Russia wanted to reopen the ammonia pipeline that supplies the EU. Ukraine was resistant to bundling the two matters into one arrangement.
June 7 (Reuters) - Russian forces repeatedly fired at an ammonia pipeline in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, a local governor said on Tuesday, a conduit potentially crucial for the extension of a deal allowing the safe export of grains and fertilizers from Black Sea ports.
The extension next month of the Black Sea Grain initiative, a pact struck in July 2022 to help tackle a global food crises, could hinge on the reopening of the pipeline.
Mikael Valtersson:
NEWS UPDATE AMMONIA PIPELINE NOON JUNE 7
The worlds longest ammonia pipeline, 2470 km, going from Togliatti at the Volga to three harbours at the Black Sea has been breached near Masyutivka (red dot left of M) in the Kupiansk region. It happened at June 5th, the day before the destruction of the Novo Kakhovka dam. Both sides blame each other. The pipeline has been shut down since February 2022, but there seems to be ammonia in it.
The pipeline has played an important part in the grain deal. The opening of the pipeline for ammonia deliveries from Russia was a demand from the russian side for allowing ukrainian grain shippments. This has not happened so Russia on June 2nd, stopped any further grain shipments until the pipeline is opened again.
The ukrainian side claims that russian artillery shelling destroyed a pumping station near Masyutivka and that no leakage of ammonia has been observed. The russian side claims on the other side that ukrainian force's blew up the pumping station and that a lot of ammonia has been released and blown towards the ukrainian lines. This has forced the ukrainians to abort military operations in the area. Russia claims that at least one are dead and three hospitalised.
I don't know the exact location of the pumping station, but since russian forces control the eastern side of the Oskil river and have a beachhead (red line) on the western side, the pumping station ought to be on the western side as well if it has been hit by russian artillery. The ukrainians could have blown up the pipeline anywhere on their territory but by doing it at the front they could easily blame the russians. By the video it seems that russian claims of a leakage at least are confirmed.
There are at present impossible to say who did it. There are arguments pro and against both sides. Russia wants to export ammonia so that would talk against the russians. The russians could of course have given up on the prospect of exporting ammonia and want to shift blame on Ukraine for the abandonment of the grain deal. The same could be said about the ukrainian side. They want to export grain, but not, it seems, if that allows Russia to gain income from ammonia export. If the pipeline is destroyed and unusable there has been two blows to important infrastructure in a couple of days.
June 7 (Reuters) - Russian forces repeatedly fired at an ammonia pipeline in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, a local governor said on Tuesday, a conduit potentially crucial for the extension of a deal allowing the safe export of grains and fertilizers from Black Sea ports.
The extension next month of the Black Sea Grain initiative, a pact struck in July 2022 to help tackle a global food crises, could hinge on the reopening of the pipeline.
Mikael Valtersson:
NEWS UPDATE AMMONIA PIPELINE NOON JUNE 7
The worlds longest ammonia pipeline, 2470 km, going from Togliatti at the Volga to three harbours at the Black Sea has been breached near Masyutivka (red dot left of M) in the Kupiansk region. It happened at June 5th, the day before the destruction of the Novo Kakhovka dam. Both sides blame each other. The pipeline has been shut down since February 2022, but there seems to be ammonia in it.
The pipeline has played an important part in the grain deal. The opening of the pipeline for ammonia deliveries from Russia was a demand from the russian side for allowing ukrainian grain shippments. This has not happened so Russia on June 2nd, stopped any further grain shipments until the pipeline is opened again.
The ukrainian side claims that russian artillery shelling destroyed a pumping station near Masyutivka and that no leakage of ammonia has been observed. The russian side claims on the other side that ukrainian force's blew up the pumping station and that a lot of ammonia has been released and blown towards the ukrainian lines. This has forced the ukrainians to abort military operations in the area. Russia claims that at least one are dead and three hospitalised.
I don't know the exact location of the pumping station, but since russian forces control the eastern side of the Oskil river and have a beachhead (red line) on the western side, the pumping station ought to be on the western side as well if it has been hit by russian artillery. The ukrainians could have blown up the pipeline anywhere on their territory but by doing it at the front they could easily blame the russians. By the video it seems that russian claims of a leakage at least are confirmed.
There are at present impossible to say who did it. There are arguments pro and against both sides. Russia wants to export ammonia so that would talk against the russians. The russians could of course have given up on the prospect of exporting ammonia and want to shift blame on Ukraine for the abandonment of the grain deal. The same could be said about the ukrainian side. They want to export grain, but not, it seems, if that allows Russia to gain income from ammonia export. If the pipeline is destroyed and unusable there has been two blows to important infrastructure in a couple of days.
Ukrainian MSTA-B gets popped by Russian artillery in Novopavlovka in Zaporozhye region.
Russian MSTA-S knocks out a Polish Krab in a duel of SPGs. The MSTA-S used a Krasnopol with a drone. In a nutshell guide, MSTA-B is towed artillery of the same cannon while MSTA-S is self propelled.
Giatsint-B or Hyacinth-B hits a Ukrainian command post. This is a towed piece, the tractor you see in the thumbnail is a Zoopark counterbattery radar.
Lancet goes after Ukrainian tank but kill is not assured despite explosion. It appears the tank is damaged and the crew survived and abandons it.
The 200th Artillery Brigade pops a Panzerhaubitz 2000 near Artemovsk.
Russian MSTA-S knocks out a Polish Krab in a duel of SPGs. The MSTA-S used a Krasnopol with a drone. In a nutshell guide, MSTA-B is towed artillery of the same cannon while MSTA-S is self propelled.
Giatsint-B or Hyacinth-B hits a Ukrainian command post. This is a towed piece, the tractor you see in the thumbnail is a Zoopark counterbattery radar.
Lancet goes after Ukrainian tank but kill is not assured despite explosion. It appears the tank is damaged and the crew survived and abandons it.
The 200th Artillery Brigade pops a Panzerhaubitz 2000 near Artemovsk.
More new footage from the battles at Zaporhyzhia and Southern Donetsk front. This time it's clear that Krasnopol is being used, as the footage are now from targeting drones, and not from an observation drone.
Either a Krasnopol or laser guided bomb victim, Ukrainian UMPC st Chernova Krinitsa at the Orekhov front.
Krasnopol strike at an M777.
Footage of destroyed vehicles but still mostly the old ones Ukraine has, suggesting the new ones are still being reserved for the main punch.
Lancet strike at a 2S1 Gvozdika also known as Carnation. Sharp footage, I believe this thanks to a Super Cam drone.
Chechen company shot this Ukrainian drone down.
MoD video showing a BMD-4M bombarding using drone assistance. The target was hit after a few shots with a big explosion.
Either a Krasnopol or laser guided bomb victim, Ukrainian UMPC st Chernova Krinitsa at the Orekhov front.
Krasnopol strike at an M777.
Footage of destroyed vehicles but still mostly the old ones Ukraine has, suggesting the new ones are still being reserved for the main punch.
Lancet strike at a 2S1 Gvozdika also known as Carnation. Sharp footage, I believe this thanks to a Super Cam drone.
Chechen company shot this Ukrainian drone down.
MoD video showing a BMD-4M bombarding using drone assistance. The target was hit after a few shots with a big explosion.
Some say is a Patriot, some a IRIS-T (most likely), anyways, Lancet got it, video will be released soon, for the moment:
For those who are not aware: I'm a licensed design & construction professional.
The dam could collapse on its own due to exceeding of safety parameters for structural integrity. While it is difficult to prove that this is what happened without access to design data for the dam we can easily tell that the failure was inevitable.
Here's why:
This graphs shows data on water levels from 2016 to 2023:
Below data for 2019-2023. Red denotes conditions before failure. Blue and green are periods of greatest change in water levels in previous years. Black numbers indicate relative change of water level compared to previous state. Red numbers are approximate duration of change in months.
Kakhovka dam is a gravity dam.
This is the generic representation of a gravity dam:
Gravity dam works against the pressure exerted by the body of water in two dimensions - it uses mass and inertia to prevent the water from overturning and it uses mass and friction to prevent the water from pushing it aside. The dam's section is designed so it stays in place and upright.
Water levels in the reservoir are therefore important for two reasons - they represent a change in mass and volume of body of water which respectively determine the load or force/pressure that is exerted on the structure as well as the area where the load affects the structure. So it's not just the forces it's also the torque - and if you remember something from school you should remember Archimedes' argument that with a long enough lever he would move the Earth. The height of the water is the "lever".
What you see on the graph is a type of harmonic movement that the body of water in lake Kakhovka exerts on the structure of the dam. That harmonic movement produces a wave of matter which then translates to similar harmonic movement of the dam. It is called resonance.
This is why and how buildings collapse during earthquakes. The movement of the earth is a wave of matter which continues along all matter connected to the earth. If you have high frequency wave (short and fast) then small buildings collapse but large buildings survive. If you have low frequency wave (long and and slow) then small buildings survive but short buildings collapse. It is usually demonstrated visually like this:
The buldings shake because the earthquake wave propagates through them. If the size of the building corresponds with the size of the wave then there's a moment where the entire structure of the building carries the entire energy and shape of the wave and the structure is deformed accordingly and stress is at maximum. In situations like these buildings may not even collapse, because they disintegrate in the air. They're broken everywhere at once by the wave.
The same thing happens here to the dam. Look how the water levels drop and rise: +0,5 -0,5 +0,5 -1,0 +0,75 -2,0 +3,5
This is essentially as if there was a very slow earthquake. Humans won't feel it. But structures will. Some structures are designed to take more of such dynamic stress but the historical trend of water levels indicates that Kakhovka dam wasn't designed to do that. Otherwise we'd see it as part of normal operations.
But that's not all. There's another problem - water changes physical properties of construction elements much like temperature can change structural strength of steel.
This is why in pure physical terms dams never really stop the flow of water but slow it down to an extreme degree. Water i.e. the matter of the body of water moves through the barrier both through the sluice gates, and through micropores and through the physical barrier itself - atom by atom, molecule by molecule, drop by drop. So dams are designed to manage the flow of water in a specific way.
The reason why there are so many sluice gates is because the geometry of the water stream matters to structural integrity. It's not just managing the water flow downstream. If that was it then large dams like Three Gorges would have a single huge sluice placed in a separate canyon like the locks for navigation. Structurally that is much easier to handle but the dam needs a control mechanism to retain structural integrity.
If you need to discharge excess water you do it with optimal parameters - many sluices at once so that the water stream has largest possible geometry which determines the pressure of the stream and therefore forces exerted on the aperture and the rest of the structure. Too much water through too small an aperture and the structure will be damaged.
Combine it with that slow earthquake and the water will get inside the structure, change the physical properties of everything and the entire dam will turn from solid to plastic. Jet fuel doesn't melt beams, it makes them plastic and unable to carry the load. Water does the same to dams.
This is elementary violation of safety. The same sluices continuously discharging water for weeks. Once the level of water reaches or exceeds the maximum - as it did recently - this happens:
Top circle indicates two diffraction patterns - the water stream is so strong that as the water hits the edge of the aperture (sluice) it has such energy that it can back-propagate with a diffraction pattern.
Bottom circle indicates that the road bridge collapsed due to one of the supports being washed away by the stream of water around 1st or 2nd of June.
What you see here is the dam already being slowly ripped to pieces by the forces exerted by the water in the lake. The part above water just signals that the part underwater is losing its integrity and physical properties.
This is what actual structural failure looks like in real time - it's like an explosion but in very slow motion because that's how energy moves through water compared to fast oxidation in explosions or particle release in chain reaction.
And finally:
What you see here is what happens when the earthen mound that formed part of the dam loses its structural integrity due to a mass of water getting inside it from the other side. The water flowing through the breached dam got on land, got into the ground, changed its physical properties and turned it plastic which then allowed the huge mass of the water in the reservoir to push it out of the way.
So as far as I can tell there's no explosive damage necessary to destroy the dam. All you need to do is deliberate violation of safe operation of the dam.
And that was only possible for Russians because they were the ones controlling the dam. If they didn't want to destroy it they could easily come to some type of safety arrangement with the Ukrainians like it was done in Zaporozhia NPP. There's nothing that Ukraine gains by failure of the dam which was inevitable if Russians didn't operate it per safety rules. The Russians might have as well tell the Ukrainians to come and operate the sluices themselves which they absolutely would because the consequences are obvious.
There was nothing that Ukraine could have done that was damaging to Russian side there.
And no, there's no way you can damage the dam by even an extensive artillery shelling. This is orders of magnitude below what's necessary in terms of destructive power. The actual structure of the dam is underwater and it's massive. If just the sluices were destroyed then the flooding would be limited and then both the upstream and downstream parts of Dnipro would equalize. The problem is not water overflowing over the top of the dam. The problem is destruction of the dam underneath.
It's basic structural engineering and the violation of safety was overt and blatant.
And if you don't know - every legal system, including that of Russia, puts legal obligation to maintain all structures in condition preventing their collapse. Here is the relevant term:
Отказ
And considering that Russia has unilateraly annexed Kherson oblast it puts Kakhovka dam under the legal regime of Russian safety regulations. If those safety regulations are violated the sanction is under criminal law.
I think this is why Russia has recently did this:
So I'm saying this as a licensed professional who has a similar legal obligation under Polish/EU regulations:
- it's Russia's fault
- it's deliberate
- it is blatant
Why the media continue with "Russians blew up the dam" is a mystery to me. I blame it on the stupidity and arrogance of leadership and media who don't care about what happened as long as it fits their narrative. Explosive demolition is plausible but it's clearly not what happened here and it really is that blatant. Could Russians also blow it up? Sure. But they didn't need to.
It was just a question of time before the dam burst because structural safety was deliberately broken.
Looks very much like an IRIS-T. I don't think Ukraine has enough patriots to put them within range of Lancets AFAIK.
I can believe the water intrusion into the foundation but can you elaborate on the claim of resonance as a contributing factor to collapse?
I'm aware of resonance and it typically occurs when the frequency of the driving force is close to or equal to the natural frequency of an object.
the change in driving force for the dam via water levels seems to have frequency ~weeks or months, so ~1E-7 Hz.
the natural frequency for dams was found to be at the 10's-100's Hz level (w = 2*Pi*f) or 8-9 orders of magnitude higher.
it is unlikely for resonance to occur when the driving force and natural frequency differ by 8-9 orders of magnitude.
I will say its a Patriot.
Look at the size compared to the truck next to it, it's too big for an IRIS-T which is the size of a normal truck.
Also, look at the launchers, they are clearly much further back than the driver's cab.
Yes, I think it's a Patriot.