The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
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4 Bradleys, alright.

Trust none of them for what they say.

Sounds to me like perennial misidentification of assets, which happens in all wars. Neither can you be so sure intelligence elements are already working on the ground with Bradleys, or Bradleys have been informally provided for advanced training in anticipation. I would do exactly such a thing, and it's believable that Ukrainian pilots may already be training in F-16s and F-18s long before they are formally provided.

Like you said, trust no one, which also means Ukrainian denials of sorts. That also goes with the rocket attack mentioned in that article.

Personally I do not treat casualty claims on either side as gospel, and frankly never cared. What's important is that a facility was hit. Russian MoD announcements is based on the casualties for a specific front, e.g. Donetsk, as opposed to a single rocket attack. Potential casualty claims might have been done using communication interceptions, which itself is unreliable since parties on the ground are in a state of panic and can easily report 'hundreds killed' without verifying it themselves.

If it forces the Russians to move troops, then it's not a failure, even if incursions are wiped out. Given who some of the fighters are, they are less than savory characters. To paraphrase the CIA, the enemy of my enemy is my cannon fodder for today. It'd be a convenient and cynical disposal method while furthering Ukrainian objectives.

I'll wait and see on whether or not the incursions were stomped or not. They may be. They may not be. Time will tell.

Lol. Watch DPA's video. No asset or force was ever transferred. The repulse was accomplished using border forces, local militias and possibly GRU forces. They were accomplished entirely without Special Military Operation forces. Not Z, V, O or whatever. Forces that were not assigned to the SMO.

It looks like the attack was completely stomped and way worst than the first. DPA is a neutral observer and relies on neutral and Ukrainian open sources, and that's collaborated with Russian reports with photographic and drone evidence, and when you have alignment in collaboration by different sources, there's certainty to it. It's very likely to my point of view, based on Russian tactics, that the attack was not just stomped but stomped in a predictable book fashion way. The Russians were waiting, they got drones in the air, attack was spotted and drone adjusted artillery was spammed. Same MO used countless times, but for some reason for well over a year now, the Ukrainians have not figured out a way to unravel this tactic.
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
You may be right. I'm going to wait and see. Neutral is an interesting term in this war. Ask the Swiss. ;)

It's already outright not just a complete waste of invaluable trained human resources, as they include mercenaries and such (British patch found in a body, freaking careless IMO) but this action also angered your US sponsors who drew the line of using US assets in direct attack of the Russian motherland. The Russians gained live fire training on what are otherwise inexperienced border forces which you can see how well they responded on the second attack.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's already outright not just a complete waste of invaluable trained human resources, as they include mercenaries and such (British patch found in a body, freaking careless IMO) but this action also angered your US sponsors who drew the line of using US assets in direct attack of the Russian motherland. The Russians gained live fire training on what are otherwise inexperienced border forces which you can see how well they responded on the second attack.

I don't think it has anything to do with training or practice.

I think what happened was, the MoD was furious with how slow the response was, and basically cleaned house / gave people slaps on the ass. The Belgorod incursion has essentially been a very massive, and very public readiness drill for border forces. This is the kind of thing that should really only work once, and Ukraine wasted it on a dumb PR stunt.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Some tidbits:

How russians may be using UAVs in Ukraine:

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Reuters reports - grain of salt by some of you - the port of Taman will no longer export LPG:

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A report that popped up on the Russian Ministry site and disappeared real quick about mobilization. No idea if its real or hacked into the system:

Twitter thread: Internet archive:
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The ones who wrote the drone report is living on a fantasy parallel world. There are countless videos, many everyday for well over 400 days now, of Russians drones revealing, tracking, doing fire adjustment for both tank, mortar and howitzer artillery. This is in addition to the increasing usage of laser guided shells, along with the well established usage of loitering munitions (Lancets, Gerans, Kubs).

Look at all the drone footage in a number of days over Kherson alone. Drones undetected are able to monitor and fallow Ukrainian military traffic to their respective depots, and then these depots get hit by precision guided munitions.

Reports such as this that tend to portray the Russian defense capability as backward and neanderthal do not prepare, and impart a false if not fatal confidence to Ukrainian forces on the ground that leads to a nasty if not fatal consequences. For example, how Russian drones are able to see easily track Ukrainian vehicles going in and out of hidden depots, revealing their location.

As far as moving targets go, we also see them get smacked by Krasnopol laser guided munitions, which unlike GPS munitions are not jammable and can engage moving targets. Then of course we also always see Lancets which are called in by observing UAVs and verifies the kills.




 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The US' "superior drone technology" was supposed to introduce its "game changing" Switchblade suicide drone. Then not one more peep was heard about the Switchblade since. At the same time, the Russians seem to have no problem producing the Lancet in much higher numbers. And it actually hits and damages stuff.

I guess it turned out that paying like $60k a pop for a loitering munition with 2.5kg of total weight and even smaller pitiful payload wasn't that smart.
 
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Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think Patriot is doing what it can, it's just that Patriot numbers are just not enough... They got fails with s-300 into buildings too and bombing targets were also destroyed. It's war and things are thrown in the air and burns.

Now it's more or less two Patriot LR batteries trying to replace most of the 100 active batteries of S-300 long-range air-defense systems with as many as 300 launchers that Ukraine had at the start of the war....give them a break poor things !
While we're on that topic, this is latest from Zelensky on the issue:
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"Our task is not 70-75% target destruction, but 100%. Yes, it is indeed an ambitious goal. It is very challenging, not only due to the waiting time for Patriot air defense systems but also for the missiles they require," Zelensky said.

70%-75% doesn't fit with the more or less 100% interception rate that AFU claims, assuming Zelensky is telling the truth in the first place.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
The US' "superior drone technology" was supposed to introduce its "game changing" Switchblade suicide drone. Then not one more peep was heard about the Switchblade since. At the same time, the Russians seem to have no problem producing the Lancet in much higher numbers. And it actually hits and damages stuff.

I guess it turned out that paying like $60k a pop for a loitering munition with 2.5kg of total weight and even smaller pitiful payload wasn't that smart.
You forgot what happened when one was discovered on the front lines and the insides were posted online. the wings that were made from wood and it held together with wonky woodscrews. Not to mention it was filled with made in China electronics.
It looked like a high schoolers drone project.

How much did they pay for it again....

I've been critical of Russian claims of development in the past, but this past year they have impressed me. They've designed, mass produced and deployed a number of platforms in less than a year. It would take the Americans a decade and billions to do the same.
 
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