The War in the Ukraine

abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
They sit on their bum lobbing artillery and digging trenches while DPR, Wagner and Chechen attack. People are calling for mobilisation to be able to gain ground, not because they are gone... Invading Ukraine with just 300k is nonsense, you need more just to keep the front stable. It's why it's a standstill and all this operation is relying on standoff weapons. You cannot take or keep ground without enough troops.
Agreed about the need to have enough soldiers.
Disagreed about how good for Russia is this stalemate.
They aren’t totally wrong. For the US, the average infantryman’s training pipeline is about 5 months (look into OSUT for more details). Of course, it takes more time for that soldier to get up to speed with the units and that is dependent on the unit, but the core training that is required for a professional soldier is 5 months.

However they are kind of mistaken for the 2 month aspect. In the US, the IRR (Individual Ready Reserve which are troops no longer in reserve or active duty) may need to attend 30 days of training per year for the remainder of their contract. Plus after mobilization there will be an emphasis on the most important aspects of their training during the first 30 days after mobilization. So there may be additional training after those 30 days.

On a seperate note, for the Ukrainians, according to the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade's (which is led by veterans from the Azov Regiment) recruitment site, the training time length from start to finish is 30 days. For the Russians, if I remember correctly, Wagner gives 10 weeks of training to their new recruits.

So, assuming the training is led well by experienced instructors, a 2 month pipeline is theoretically enough for those who served in the past.
Of course it's enough. They do not deploy nuclear physicists, but grunts. They need to know how to duck, go low and slow, cover each other, put a shell into mortar, howitzer, dig a trench etc. And the most import thing, they have done that allready before.
In case of need, they should be able to relearn it within a few days. Okay, phisical fitness needs more time, but considering rate of Russian advance in last year, even that isn't so important.
So, to conclude, as for the training, they could by now allmost start deploying third wave of mobilisation.

But, real problem isn't the training, it's political will to do mobilisation and lack of modern equipment to give to mobilised soldiers.
Why lack of political will? Because average Ivan simply don't sees this war as existential threat to Russia. More like Putin's War. Of course that average Ivan would like to see Ukraine under Russian rule, but not if he and a million other Russians have to die for that. Plus, if real mobilisation is carried, then they would be sent into a battlefield with equipment like T-55/62, BMP-1 etc, and that's just about death sentence. Of course, if Russia is seriously in jeopardy, like in WW2, people would fight with flintlocks and stones, but it simply isn't. There's nuclear weapons to prevent that. And people do know it.
Therefore, Kremlin fears revolution or civil disorder, like America had in Vietnam, so they avoid mobilisation as plague.
 
Last edited:

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Action over Kiev last night

Hits being observed from Kiev.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This one captures low flying thingies arriving and exploding, indicating successful interception of Ukrainian terra firma against unknown targets.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"Kiev's raid captured city cameras
After the start of the work of the Ukrainian air defense systems, which lit up their position, the CCTV cameras recorded an arrival at the location of the air defense complex, followed by fire.
After hit, the air defense system launches a rocket in a residential area near the base."

Another successful interception by Ukrainian terra firma on a cruise missile.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Russians have lots of new units these days. This is the 58th Special Purpose Battalion sending an ATGM into a Ukrainian IFV at night.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Ukrainian D-30 howitzer taken down by Lancet despite heavy camouflage.

 

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
Kiev AD doing something interesting:

A few days ago I saw this exact same thing happen on a video in Telegram which I saved down:
watermark on those video suggest this was on 28th of May.

What causes surface to air missiles to do this? Losing track of the target after launch?
I suppose someone in Kiev is due for a 6-8 years in jail again.
Maybe the first ones are gerans, they let them through to try to intercept a cruise missile?
But yeah it looks like a successful SEAD mission.
 
Last edited:

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maybe the first ones are gerans, they let them through to try to intercept a cruise missile?
But yeah it looks like a successful SEAD mission.
You were able to conclude a successful SEAD mission on those videos? Ukraine air force and adviser to internal affairs Minister which have access to the radar data and what would get destroyed on the ground says no such thing occurred. I think it's more wishful thinking.
 

tank3487

Junior Member
Registered Member
You were able to conclude a successful SEAD mission on those videos? Ukraine air force and adviser to internal affairs Minister which have access to the radar data and what would get destroyed on the ground says no such thing occurred. I think it's more wishful thinking.
Believing in one side of war propaganda are kinda stupid. You can trust only photo/video and territorial control.

We do have video of night strikes which do contradict you statements.
 

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
photo_2023-06-02_06-07-58.jpg

Satellite images of clear impacts on the S-300 launcher depot, only now available on Google maps. They were hit in the initial strikes in February-March 2022. Two(8) launcher batteries were destroyed. Ukraine has only been able to carry out a partial evacuation. The air defence situation may be worse for them than we thought.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Let's watch it in detail. Missiles vs. Kiev AD.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You can see SAMs being fired at the right side of the screen, hitting nothing. Two fired. No flashes in the sky which means no aerial hits.

You can see SAMs being fired at the left side of the screen, hitting nothing. Three fired. No flashes in the sky.

You can see something like a big fiery ball flying low hitting on the left side of the screen where the SAMs are fired. Big flash of light. This is followed by a second low flying object hitting the same location. A small SAM is fired but is way too late and explodes in the air.


Let's see the second video.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You can see one flash on the ground. Followed by a second. Then third. Then fourth. Then a SAM rises from the ground from the same location as the flashes, then arcs and hits somewhere in civilian ground. Cool catch to watch a SAM fail and hit your own country instead. However, I can assume the SAM base damage wasn't enough to stop the last missile being fired.
 

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
I can assume the SAM base damage wasn't enough to stop the last missile being fired.
It could be that the explosion detonated the fuel and that is why the SAM missile "jumped" and landed nearby.
We have many videos of MLRS and BUKs in which the missiles fired themselves after the vehicle was hit.
4 explosions in that area is quite a lot, so it seems likely to me, plus that would explain the weird trajectory where it crashes to the ground at close range.
 

tank3487

Junior Member
Registered Member
However, I can assume the SAM base damage wasn't enough to stop the last missile being fired.
It is probably had started due to launcher burning due to flame igniting fuel in missile. This is why it hit ground uncontrollable just after launch. We had seen similar behaviour by different SAMs and MLRS systems that catched fire or were struck by artillery.


It is really strong video suggestion that launcher was killed by strike due to this.
 
Top