Training never really stops though. There is a lot of growth between the end the initial training (Boot Camp + Advanced Individual Training) and whenever you're discharged. Fresh recruits will not have the same quality as soldiers who have been on the job for a year and a half or so.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Training never really stops though. There is a lot of growth between the end the initial training (Boot Camp + Advanced Individual Training) and whenever you're discharged. Fresh recruits will not have the same quality as soldiers who have been on the job for a year and a half or so.
True. Once a freshly trained soldier goes to their train, they need to be trained even more so by the unit for a while. But the foundation of a professional soldier is established within 5 months for the infantry. The foundation is enough to give the soldier the skills and physicality needed to fight while the additional training will turn them into a really really good soldier.
Zelensky made a fatal mistake advertising its counteroffensive as something that should decide the fate of Ukraine. Now it's under pressure to deliver by own population, Biden administration and NATO.
When Ukraine's big counteroffensive was initially announced as planned many people myself included expected Russian offensive in the winter. It didn't happen. Instead Russia spent time building fortifications and training more troops. It's possible that NATO and Ukraine also expected Russia to attack, overextend itself, lose troops for minimal gains and then Ukraine could use fresh NATO trained troops to begin own counteroffensive against exhausted Russian army.
However with Putin deciding to sit and wait believing time is on Russia's side Ukraine faces a dilemma. To attack with a real risk of facing a catastrophic defeat because NATO will need a lot of time to replace tanks and armored vehicles lost during the counteroffensive.
Or not to attack and be put under pressure to freeze the war or to negotiate. If Zelensky is waiting for F-16 then Ukrainian counteroffensive most likely can only begin next year atleast at the end of the winter. 4 more months and the ground will start to get muddy again.
Time is already running out of Ukraine really plans to achieve big gains. It will need to overcome Russian defenses, not lose too much equipment to Russian air and artillery strikes, solidify gainst before the ground gets tough to move on after the summer.
With a lot of agricultural land and empty fields in the South, Ukraine would have to move equipment and to supply own troops in the open, vulnerable to Russian strikes and could have the same trouble Russia had in February-March 2022 when it comes to logistics and overextending.
Counteroffensive will need to happen. Ukraine can't afford to have 12 months without a single offensive operation as Russia doesn't seem to be in a hurry and is prepared to wait. Zelensky needs to give own population something to boost the morale after 8 months of defense around Bakhmut and its fall. Zelensky also has to show to the US and Europe that Ukraine is capable of advancing for politicians to justify to their tax payers sending more money to Ukraine.
When Ukraine's big counteroffensive was initially announced as planned many people myself included expected Russian offensive in the winter. It didn't happen. Instead Russia spent time building fortifications and training more troops. It's possible that NATO and Ukraine also expected Russia to attack, overextend itself, lose troops for minimal gains and then Ukraine could use fresh NATO trained troops to begin own counteroffensive against exhausted Russian army.
However with Putin deciding to sit and wait believing time is on Russia's side Ukraine faces a dilemma. To attack with a real risk of facing a catastrophic defeat because NATO will need a lot of time to replace tanks and armored vehicles lost during the counteroffensive.
Or not to attack and be put under pressure to freeze the war or to negotiate. If Zelensky is waiting for F-16 then Ukrainian counteroffensive most likely can only begin next year atleast at the end of the winter. 4 more months and the ground will start to get muddy again.
Time is already running out of Ukraine really plans to achieve big gains. It will need to overcome Russian defenses, not lose too much equipment to Russian air and artillery strikes, solidify gainst before the ground gets tough to move on after the summer.
With a lot of agricultural land and empty fields in the South, Ukraine would have to move equipment and to supply own troops in the open, vulnerable to Russian strikes and could have the same trouble Russia had in February-March 2022 when it comes to logistics and overextending.
Counteroffensive will need to happen. Ukraine can't afford to have 12 months without a single offensive operation as Russia doesn't seem to be in a hurry and is prepared to wait. Zelensky needs to give own population something to boost the morale after 8 months of defense around Bakhmut and its fall. Zelensky also has to show to the US and Europe that Ukraine is capable of advancing for politicians to justify to their tax payers sending more money to Ukraine.
The data will not be known for decades.
But I think there were two operations at the same time with a clear objective and one in between in the first months of the war.
In my opinion:
1 - Quick political victory:
Quick decapitation attack on Kiev, around 40.000 troops, this is the same as Wagner used in Bakhmut, Kiev is a city of 3 million inhabitants even more in its metropolitan area, so the objective of this was clearly political.
The casualties here were not catastrophic but in bain, a risky manoeuvre trying to replicate the success in Kazakhstan, brought Ukraine to the negotiating table but strong Western support and internal purges, such as the SBU's assassination of the economy minister, which favoured peace negotiations made this impossible.
Seeing this avenue exhausted, they left.
2 - Pure military operation.
Attack to secure the Russia - Crimea land corridor, this was a complete success, casualties do not appear to have been heavy, major cities such as Melitopol fell on the fly without a fight with the AFU fleeing, major AFU ammunition depots were taken, the largest nuclear power station in Europe ...
3 - Mixed group.
This is the whole "northern" area, here there was confusion, disorder and casualties were horrendous, cities that were surrounded and could have been taken like Sumy were simply not taken, columns were thrown into the dark woods to try to get to Kiev fast while half-heartedly trying to take some cities ...
This is where Russia's worst casualties were concentrated as the brigade of Arctic troops.
In my opinion, there was A and B planning, it was a sensible plan for the most part, but everything about the "northern" group was just plain stupid, with unclear objectives.
Well there is also this theory, that the Ukrainians will try something as NATO launches the Air Defender exercise (June 12-24) as there will be an increase of AWACS in the air and air platforms in general.
It seems the Russian Volunteer Corps has entered Russia again and there is fighting south of Shebekino. There are reports of tank battles. hm. This follows the shelling in the area in the last day or so.
The Russian government has stated they have already repulsed the attack. There are reports the Russians are moving two tank brigades to defend. I've read rumors the other fronts have forces being taken to protect Belgorod.
I'd speculate the raids are meant to be two things. First and foremost, a distraction from the main battle fronts making the Russians spread thinner. The second is an opportunistic one: should the raids go well, I could easily see a long range raid along the logistics lines if the Russians are really that weak on their own territory and then a swing into the Russian rear in Ukraine. Mad Cossack ride sorta thing. Doubtful that would happen and wildly risky, but if the raid did a long J swing like that happened it'd potentially cause panic in the front lines. Again, highly doubtful.
Also, I don't see here in the thread there was another drone attack on Moscow, but handled fine by air defense. An oil refinery in Krasnodar has been hit. Big fire, but extent of the damage undetermined as yet, afaict.
The Russian government has stated they have already repulsed the attack. There are reports the Russians are moving two tank brigades to defend. I've read rumors the other fronts have forces being taken to protect Belgorod.
I'd speculate the raids are meant to be two things. First and foremost, a distraction from the main battle fronts making the Russians spread thinner. The second is an opportunistic one: should the raids go well, I could easily see a long range raid along the logistics lines if the Russians are really that weak on their own territory and then a swing into the Russian rear in Ukraine. Mad Cossack ride sorta thing. Doubtful that would happen and wildly risky, but if the raid did a long J swing like that happened it'd potentially cause panic in the front lines. Again, highly doubtful.
Also, I don't see here in the thread there was another drone attack on Moscow, but handled fine by air defense. An oil refinery in Krasnodar has been hit. Big fire, but extent of the damage undetermined as yet, afaict.
Regarding the issue of training, it varies a lot from unit to unit, as you rightly said.
Some volunteer friends of mine with previous experience joined a unit, they had previous military experience and their training was a quick refresher, a few weeks, between 1 and 2 months I would say.
Then we have for example the example of the 106th VDV, this is a new unit, made up of volunteers, some with experience and some without.
It is a unit made up of ultras and hooligans from the Russian capital, so it is relatively easy to keep track of them, as they have a large information footprint even in their media.
They have not yet entered combat and the unit was formed at the end of 2022. Actually, they have been training for more than 6 months, although being VDV they may be better trained.
We don't talk about cannon fodder trainings...
Two months would be enough to train basic infantry from reservist with experienced instructors. A truck driver to deliver supplies could be trained in a shorter time. It doesn't take a long time to have a basic infantry soldier that can fire an AK, RPG and dig a trench, a couple of months. Still what is the percentage of all the mobilised that will be basic infantry ?
We add integration in the unit and learning communication systems and chain of command on the battlefields take some time to learn even for reservist. After 5-6 month you can have descent troops able to do something with some kind of cohesion.
But if they go to operate artillery systems, mbt, mortar, ifv, repair vehicules, operate drones it could take way longer to be proficient. They have way more to learn to operate a mortar than you can feed them in two months. A brigade would certainly be in a sad situation if their mortar support team got only 2 weeks of training on their 2 months basic training to cover my position with 82 millimeter mortar or even one months with an howitzer.
Less attrition in those units, they're not typically front-line infantry.
That building is very on fire. Interesting how nothing around it is touched though. Do it’s on fire from shelling but no broken windows?! Doesn’t look like shelling damage to me. Too neat - shells only hit the roof? This is definitely not what a building looks like after a massive shelling. Am I the only one to think the fire on the building is fake? Almost no debris on the ground... no windows blown out.. this looks like a fake!