The War in the Ukraine

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Ukrainian intelligence last I checked (last month or so) claimed that there are 389,000 Russian and proxy forces in Ukraine. US claims around 400,000 with half of the formations at front and half in the rear.

This might be accurate. Overall the Russians are on the defense-in depth with limited offensive operations. They intend to defeat the Ukrainian counteroffensive, if it comes this summer- first. That is the no. 1 priority.

Another aspect from West/Ukraine is the claim that the Russian ground forces has reorganized into 'company tactical groups'. These are heavily equipped 100-man companies that are extremely heavily equipped with automatic grenade launchers and light machineguns. This implies that they are more on the defensive than offensive.

The other aspect is the Russian winter-spring offensive that never happened. It turned out to be a Psych-Op on both sides.

Both the US/Ukraine claimed that the Russians split their army in half, and the other half was rebuilding. Shoigu at this time also announced the conversation of the Russian army into IIRC around 17+ divisions by 2025. So presumably this is what is happening with the other 'half' of the Russian army, so many of these units from July 2022 I have not heard being active for almost a year.

Overall the Russian army seems to have good cell phone security as there are almost no leaks from their training camps all throughout Russia. I find the reform, reorganization, and expansion of the Russian army more interesting than what is going on at the front now and there is almost no information about it.

BTW Kadyrov announced that the Chechen forces (w. 7000 men) will be performing active offensive operations near Marinka.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

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Cult Icon said:
Ukrainian intelligence last I checked (last month or so) claimed that there are 389,000 Russian and proxy forces in Ukraine. US claims around 400,000 with half of the formations at front and half in the rear.
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Reznikov in early may mentioned 500k focused on Ukraine with 300k inside Ukraine.

Now, Russia may have the geographic advantage and stronger numbers. Some 500,000 Russian troops are currently focused in Ukraine, with at least 300,000 inside Ukrainian territory, Reznikov said.

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R

Right_People

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anzha said:
For all the posting of individual units being killed by Russian lancets; artillery smacking tanks and buildings; and whatnot, why has there not been a significant *Russian* offensive?

The Russians went into Ukraine with 190k (at most) in 130 BTG. We know the Russians reinforced with other units as some of the originals were chewed on. Plus the PMCs are there. The Russians called up 300k troops. Furthermore, the called-up 300k should give them another 205 BTG assuming they can be equipped. I'd speculate Russia may have 3x the original number of troops now in Ukraine.

The 205 to 335 BTG is a lot more than the 20 brigades the Ukrainians have pulled together for their offensive, if and when and ever that happens.

So why are the Russians not concentrating at least a the force equivalent of a combined arms army and punching through the Ukrainian lines at a particular point? The Ukrainians can't be strong everywhere all the time.

I can speculate:

1. logistical problems - not a problem with having the material so much as being able to resupply the units on offensive. There has been speculation from the start the Russians had issues going past a truck ride from a rail head since nearly the beginning.

2. The russians have a serious ISR problem and can't figure out if the Ukrainians have a weak point or not. Given the number of drones involved - Ukrainians saying they lose 10k per month - I have doubts about this.

3. Casualties are a lot worse than people think and the battle hardened, professional troops are in bad shape. The others need a lot more seasoning before they can be used on a significant offensive.

4. Risk aversion. No commander in the Russian army wants to get blamed for a major failure. The sacking of generals has been a lot more than I'd have expected already and the ones left are not willing to risk a failure - even if slight - or worse, the Ukrainians taking advantage and pulling off another Kharkov offensive.

5. Possibly they tried and failed in the winter. I've heard this a few times now, but...unless the Russian army is a lot worse than I think it is or the Ukrainians a lot better, then ... I have doubts?

Why are we seeing tactics used that look more like the terminal Korean War attacks by the UN/American troops than an actual offensive? Why haven't we seen a new kessel since Mauripol? Even in Bakmut, the Ukrainians were able to retreat in good enough order to prevent encirclement?

Why haven't we seen a major offensive?
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In this war is that the defence has huge advantage most of the times. Similar to the first world war. Russia is geostrategically comfortable while Europe is more and more uncomfortable, yesterday it was Macron who said "depending on the success of the Ukrainian offensive we will evaluate our support to Ukraine" or something similar.
So, the question is, why should Russia launch an offensive?
The most logical thing is that Ukraine, who finds itself with a need to launch an offensive, for a myriad of reasons, should launch such a risky operation.
Russia can simply sit back, watch the European economy disappear while they re-equip and train their troops and while they send missiles every night into the Ukrainian deep rear. Unlike in the first months of the war, Russia is using logic ...
 
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Right_People

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SolarWarden said:
Ukraine officials never gave a date when their offensive would begin it was journalist and folks like us who predicted/guessed it would be spring/late spring.
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The head of Ukrainian intelligence Kirill Budanov, all his predictions about the course of the SMO:


May 24, 2022:
By the end of [2022], we must enter the territory of Crimea.

30.09.2022:
I grew up in Crimea. And we'll be back there soon. Yes, we will return with weapons. ... not in the summer, but before the end of spring [2023], perhaps a little earlier.

18.10.2022:
At the end of spring, it should all be over. By the summer [2023], it'll be done.

04.01.2023:
Budanov said he expects the fighting in March to be "the hottest," adding that Ukraine is planning a serious offensive in the spring.

03.03.2023:
Ukraine and Russia will fight this spring in a decisive battle before the end of this war.

18.04.2023:
I still have a period of time [for the AFU to enter the Crimea in the spring] Everything is going according to schedule.

24.04.2023
I do not know why you focus so much on Crimea.
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

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Some optimist regarding the use of missiles and remaining stockpiles

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1663953650467602445


Ukranian units are trying to attack Belgorod again

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664141239069859840

Though it seems this time they were being expected

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664152483093004290

Any kind of filming AD will land you in jail in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1664011217306808320

Right_People said:
The head of Ukrainian intelligence Kirill Budanov, all his predictions about the course of the SMO:
Click to expand...

It is on writing in their own media as well
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S

Stealthflanker

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sheogorath said:
Some optimist regarding the use of missiles and remaining stockpiles
Click to expand...

at this point i dont know what's their market by making this kind of news. As long as they never destroy any enterprises involved in the making of the weapons, it wont stop. Normal people aren't supposed to take that kind of reporting in face value.


sheogorath said:
Ukranian units are trying to attack Belgorod again
Click to expand...

let's see what they can steal this time. and how Russian respond would be.
 
A

Anlsvrthng

Captain
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Right_People said:
In this war is that the defence has huge advantage most of the times. Similar to the first world war. Russia is geostrategically comfortable while Europe is more and more uncomfortable, yesterday it was Macron who said "depending on the success of the Ukrainian offensive we will evaluate our support to Ukraine" or something similar.
So, the question is, why should Russia launch an offensive?
The most logical thing is that Ukraine, who finds itself with a need to launch an offensive, for a myriad of reasons, should launch such a risky operation.
Russia can simply sit back, watch the European economy disappear while they re-equip and train their troops and while they send missiles every night into the Ukrainian deep rear. Unlike in the first months of the war, Russia is using logic ...
Click to expand...
The evolution of events will follow the bunny function or similar.


Very nice example the time evolution of events ,and stable points.

The logistic map ( horny bunny function) is a simple function , that describe the population changes by time in relation of the maxumum poluationa and fertility rate.


Anyway, the real world works like this, the logistic map depending on the fertility rate, changes in this could change the population size fro ma stable one to another one that fluctuating between extreme numbers, and after changing it again to another stable atractor(s)


The current events like this, the observed stability in the front just a temporarly phenomenom, result of unsustainable and instable processes on both side.

As soon as the time passes critical milestones the development of events will suddenly jump to unexpected dinamics and directions.


Not like I know what will happens and when, but the math theory saying that the rabbit's hole is way deeper and stranger than we think. The expereinced stability since last summer is a temporary phenomenom, and we can expect strage things to happens.
 
A

abc123

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Atomicfrog said:
Russia reacted and called up 300k and taken 6 months to train them.
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Come on, 6 months to train people that once were serving as conscripts? In 6 months you can turn a complete neo-phyte into a proffesional soldier. Two months is more than enough for refreshment training and getting them into shape.
 
A

abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
anzha said:
For all the posting of individual units being killed by Russian lancets; artillery smacking tanks and buildings; and whatnot, why has there not been a significant *Russian* offensive?

The Russians went into Ukraine with 190k (at most) in 130 BTG. We know the Russians reinforced with other units as some of the originals were chewed on. Plus the PMCs are there. The Russians called up 300k troops. Furthermore, the called-up 300k should give them another 205 BTG assuming they can be equipped. I'd speculate Russia may have 3x the original number of troops now in Ukraine.

The 205 to 335 BTG is a lot more than the 20 brigades the Ukrainians have pulled together for their offensive, if and when and ever that happens.

So why are the Russians not concentrating at least a the force equivalent of a combined arms army and punching through the Ukrainian lines at a particular point? The Ukrainians can't be strong everywhere all the time.

I can speculate:

1. logistical problems - not a problem with having the material so much as being able to resupply the units on offensive. There has been speculation from the start the Russians had issues going past a truck ride from a rail head since nearly the beginning.

2. The russians have a serious ISR problem and can't figure out if the Ukrainians have a weak point or not. Given the number of drones involved - Ukrainians saying they lose 10k per month - I have doubts about this.

3. Casualties are a lot worse than people think and the battle hardened, professional troops are in bad shape. The others need a lot more seasoning before they can be used on a significant offensive.

4. Risk aversion. No commander in the Russian army wants to get blamed for a major failure. The sacking of generals has been a lot more than I'd have expected already and the ones left are not willing to risk a failure - even if slight - or worse, the Ukrainians taking advantage and pulling off another Kharkov offensive.

5. Possibly they tried and failed in the winter. I've heard this a few times now, but...unless the Russian army is a lot worse than I think it is or the Ukrainians a lot better, then ... I have doubts?

Why are we seeing tactics used that look more like the terminal Korean War attacks by the UN/American troops than an actual offensive? Why haven't we seen a new kessel since Mauripol? Even in Bakmut, the Ukrainians were able to retreat in good enough order to prevent encirclement?

Why haven't we seen a major offensive?
Click to expand...
Considering that various pro-Russian people are now calling for a new round of mobilisation, you can guess what happened with the first 300 000.
 
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