The War in the Ukraine

Here's an explanation why the PS pic is the one without the wheel.

The climb latter is just above the wheel just like this one...


So the photoshopped is the one with the axel removed

Aegis21 said:

Is there any evidence that VKS air defence was ever deployed in Ukraine (excluding Crimea)? From what I’ve seen, only ground forces air defence are actually present in Ukraine.

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They deployed one of these in Kherson

Anlsvrthng said:

The single axle one looks like a stable diffusion or similar text to image software for me .

If I have to bet then the single axle is the fake.


Read the math part, if too complex I can describe it in details.
Not that complex.

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Apparently the picture on the left was the one first uploaded onto twitter. When people started pointing out the lack of second rear axle the second picture mysteriously emerged.

They both look AI generated to me.

Right_People said:

Good luck with that.
The price of an EF is 125 million., and I doubt any Euro country will give that away.
European air forces are falling apart.
Most of the German planes can't fly, a good segment of the Spanish air force are 30+ year old F-18s ...
The situation is generally the same for the whole continent.

It is still a fourth generation aircraft, spare parts are likely to be expensive, and available in small numbers.
What I don't know is if the EF can operate on low maintenance runways, being an aircraft developed after the cold war I would imagine not.
Which brings us to the problem of ground attack as we saw recently with the 5, probably Polish Su-24s that Russia destroyed on the ground.

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Eurofighters are going to be too big and difficult to maintain. They need small, lightweight platforms.

From what I can tell, it looks like the Americans are abandoning the F-16 idea.

To me it makes more sense to convert AIM-120s into a SAM configuration.

Abominable said:

Apparently the picture on the left was the one first uploaded onto twitter. When people started pointing out the lack of second rear axle the second picture mysteriously emerged.

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You got a source to back your claim the left is the first pic?

What's more logical... A truck with two front axels but only one rear one or 4 axels with one of the rear ones removed/PS?

I'm trying to find a Russian military truck that looks exactly like the S400 command truck with 3 axels 2 in the front and 1 in the back and I'm not having any success maybe you can find it because I sure can't.

Advertised Ukrainian spring "counteroffensive" postponed, US says. On the last day of spring, the White House announced that "Ukraine will go on the offensive in the summer." According to representatives of the US presidential administration, the Americans "have been in contact" with Kiev since the beginning of the planning of the offensive and are now preparing new arms deliveries.

Abominable said:

Apparently the picture on the left was the one first uploaded onto twitter. When people started pointing out the lack of second rear axle the second picture mysteriously emerged.

They both look AI generated to me.

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It makes no sense how Ukraine would even get such a photo. Seems near impossible they'd blow up an S-400 positioned way behind the front lines and have a guy taking pics of the wreck. Most likely, they took a photo of one of their own wrecks and called it Russian.

The problem is that the 55K6 Command Post photo they are using as "evidence" is employed not only by several types of Soviet/Russian AD systems (Pantsir, S-300), but would have also been a component of Soviet-made S-300 systems delivered to Ukraine by other countries. The photo does not establish AT ALL that an S-400 system was destroyed. The Russians don't have any S-400s anywhere near the front lines. The command post in the photo could possibly be Russian, but it wouldn't be part of a S-400 battalion. The same CP is used with S-300 and Pantsir systems.

baykalov said:

Advertised Ukrainian spring "counteroffensive" postponed, US says. On the last day of spring, the White House announced that "Ukraine will go on the offensive in the summer." According to representatives of the US presidential administration, the Americans "have been in contact" with Kiev since the beginning of the planning of the offensive and are now preparing new arms deliveries.

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Ukraine officials never gave a date when their offensive would begin it was journalist and folks like us who predicted/guessed it would be spring/late spring.

baykalov said:

It makes no sense how Ukraine would even get such a photo. Seems near impossible they'd blow up an S-400 positioned way behind the front lines and have a guy taking pics of the wreck. Most likely, they took a photo of one of their own wrecks and called it Russian.

The problem is that the 55K6 Command Post photo they are using as "evidence" is employed not only by several types of Soviet/Russian AD systems (Pantsir, S-300), but would have also been a component of Soviet-made S-300 systems delivered to Ukraine by other countries. The photo does not establish AT ALL that an S-400 system was destroyed. The Russians don't have any S-400s anywhere near the front lines. The command post in the photo could possibly be Russian, but it wouldn't be part of a S-400 battalion. The same CP is used with S-300 and Pantsir systems.

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Pictures get leaked all the time I don't understand why that is hard to believe. Leaks happen just like the pic of the s400 48Ya6-K1 radar being destroyed way behind enemy lines.

SolarWarden said:

Pictures get leaked all the time I don't understand why that is hard to believe. Leaks happen just like the pic of the s400 48Ya6-K1 radar being destroyed way behind enemy lines.

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Any news coming out of Ukraine is automatically suspect. Ever since "the ghost of Kiev". And photos are the easiest to fake.

baykalov said:

Any news coming out of Ukraine is automatically suspect.

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If we go by that logic the same applies to info coming out of Russia, right?

baykalov said:

Ever since "the ghost of Kiev". And photos are the easiest to fake.

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Can be faked and easy to debunk with a some research. Seems like the narrative is changing from being a fake pic of s400 command truck because an axel was deleted to now it's a Ukraine s300 command truck because how can Ukraine get their hands on a pic far behind enemy lines.

Until proven otherwise this is an s400 command truck with an obvious airburst blastfrag damage

SolarWarden said:

If we go by that logic the same applies to info coming out of Russia, right?

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Anything coming out of Russia is extremely scrutinized yes. I don't even know why you ask such a thing.

SolarWarden said:

Can be faked and easy to debunk with a some research. Seems like the narrative is changing from being a fake pic of s400 command truck because an axel was deleted to now it's a Ukraine s300 command truck because how can Ukraine get their hands on a pic far behind enemy lines.

Until proven otherwise this is an s400 command truck with an obvious airburst blastfrag damage

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The photo is still suspect because it's a photo, and it's coming from Ukraine. It's even more suspect now that we know it's a photoshop.

Photographs aren't immediate proof. We should've all learned that by now, and we must approach all claims with extreme skepticism.

For all the posting of individual units being killed by Russian lancets; artillery smacking tanks and buildings; and whatnot, why has there not been a significant *Russian* offensive?

The Russians went into Ukraine with 190k (at most) in 130 BTG. We know the Russians reinforced with other units as some of the originals were chewed on. Plus the PMCs are there. The Russians called up 300k troops. Furthermore, the called-up 300k should give them another 205 BTG assuming they can be equipped. I'd speculate Russia may have 3x the original number of troops now in Ukraine.

The 205 to 335 BTG is a lot more than the 20 brigades the Ukrainians have pulled together for their offensive, if and when and ever that happens.

So why are the Russians not concentrating at least a the force equivalent of a combined arms army and punching through the Ukrainian lines at a particular point? The Ukrainians can't be strong everywhere all the time.

I can speculate:

1. logistical problems - not a problem with having the material so much as being able to resupply the units on offensive. There has been speculation from the start the Russians had issues going past a truck ride from a rail head since nearly the beginning.

2. The russians have a serious ISR problem and can't figure out if the Ukrainians have a weak point or not. Given the number of drones involved - Ukrainians saying they lose 10k per month - I have doubts about this.

3. Casualties are a lot worse than people think and the battle hardened, professional troops are in bad shape. The others need a lot more seasoning before they can be used on a significant offensive.

4. Risk aversion. No commander in the Russian army wants to get blamed for a major failure. The sacking of generals has been a lot more than I'd have expected already and the ones left are not willing to risk a failure - even if slight - or worse, the Ukrainians taking advantage and pulling off another Kharkov offensive.

5. Possibly they tried and failed in the winter. I've heard this a few times now, but...unless the Russian army is a lot worse than I think it is or the Ukrainians a lot better, then ... I have doubts?

Why are we seeing tactics used that look more like the terminal Korean War attacks by the UN/American troops than an actual offensive? Why haven't we seen a new kessel since Mauripol? Even in Bakmut, the Ukrainians were able to retreat in good enough order to prevent encirclement?

Why haven't we seen a major offensive?