The War in the Ukraine

There is one sentence that is quite interesting

Pavlo estimated that, owing to the casualties his unit had sustained, eighty per cent of his men were new draftees. “

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Now, the trick is that if say 5% of the unit killed, with 20 old and 80 new man, then the number of experienced ones decrease by one, but there is 4 dead rookie.

So, if the unit fight for 31 replenisment cycle , on each cycle they suffer 5% of loss, then the originals will represent only 20% of the headcont, 80 % is the new guys (as he explained) BUT in the process not 80 , but 155 soldier died.

Because as the time passes the newcomers will represent best part of the losses, but the ORIGINAL headcount calculated.


Of course the replenismhment period is question, as shorter as higher the number of real losses.

Means if the unit was 100 person at begining then they suffered 155 loss....

Not seen before ...

Atomicfrog said:

Don't know if they could adapt these thermobaric warhead on S-24 or S-25 rockets from SU-25. Tossing S-13 or S-8 on an area could be replaced with one of these with thermobaric warhead...Launching a wide area thermobaric munition would be way more devastating.

I found these low level Su-25 jet tossing a couple of small rocket and turning away a bit underwhelming. Not sure, if it's just a waste of ressources or real help.

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They have a ballistic computer, they are "almost" guided munitions, so to speak, I guess they will do something ...
But there is a lot of room for improvement

After crossing the Bosphorus, the Ukranians tried to attack the SIGINT ship Ivan Khurs with naval drones though the attack was repelled and the drones destroyed

Is it even possible to miniaturized Thermobaric munitions that small?

FriedButter said:

What else are they suppose to talk about? Prigozhin leaving Bakhmut essentially means even less updates from the frontlines as well.

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There's this hot off the press.
In the same interview he also gave casualty figures for Wagner:

Equipment wise a whole bunch of CV-90s are moving through Germany towards Ukraine:

Like things are happening, I'm surprised there isn't more Bakhmut mopping up talk but rather people jumped straight to the next flashpoint.

RottenPanzer said:

Is it even possible to miniaturized Thermobaric munitions that small?

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Should be.

The Russians have thermobaric rocket launchers like the RPO-A



Apparently the Belgorod crossing pic staged and Russia got some Humvees from Iran that were captured from ISIS or something.

RU MOD: "This morning, the Ukrainian Armed Forces unsuccessfully tried to attack the Black Sea Fleet's 'Ivan Khurs', which performs security tasks for the 'Turkish Stream' and 'Blue Stream' gas pipelines in Turkey's economic zone, with three unmanned boats. All the enemy's gunboats were destroyed by fire from the Russian ship's weapons, 140 kilometers northeast of the Bosphorus. The 'Ivan Khurs' continues to carry out its tasks."

sheogorath said:

Apparently the Belgorod crossing pic staged and Russia got some Humvees from Iran that were captured from ISIS or something.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661162964261404673

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I suppose some people just live in some kind of alternative reality. It is kinda even scary.

tank3487 said:

Only reason for this attack was to take away public focus from Bakhmut loss and problems with announced spring counter offensive. Losing several MRAPs, Humvee with unknown numbers of Ukrainians soldiers in process are not so big price. Nothing more, nothing less.

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It is a big price, especially when their destroyed hulks are placed in social media and news outlets to see. Destroyed American equipment has replaced the image of American coffins in Vietnam War. It creates a statement of vulnerability against the staunch aura of the invincibility of the US military machine which places great hype and hope on the superiority of their machines.

Every life loss, not the least Ukrainian, is always a big price. Ukrainian lives should not be used as chess pawns. The collective West is supposed to be above such barbaric gambits and should not tolerate such from their ally. On top of it, if 70 lives lost are true, that's 70 highly trained and experienced commandos wasted just like that.