The War in the Ukraine

Anlsvrthng · May 19, 2023

Zichan said:
The comparison is between the S-300 Ukraine fields (max range 90km) and the Patriot variants they received (PAC-2 GME (max range 160km) and PAC-3). The former is 80s vintage technology, while the latter are 21st century upgrades.

As Ukrainie itself explained, their S-300 was unable to intercept the Kinzhal air launched ballistic missile, whereas their Patriot were. Therefore, there shouldn’t be any doubt as to which system is more advanced.

Let see what we know.

1. There is a most likelly valid video from atrafic or similar camera, that showing fast launch of 32 missiles from a Patriot battery.
2. Ukraine claim that they shoot down 6 Kinzal
3. Ukraine claim the Patriot battery damaged.

If we simply accept these claims on face value (that acutally would means we accept the Ukrainan claims about killing each Russian soldiers twice and destroy all russian tank made in past and future ) then the probability of interception considering 10 % chance for kill on each launches :

32 patriot missile launch, 10 % chance to interception, chances for 0/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 Kinzal kill.
Just clarification, it means that IN SELF DEFENSE with 10% chance of kill it has 5% to see one occasion when the battery defended itself successfully agains 6 incoming kinzal.

Means from 20 attack, one will be defeated, and the remaining times 1-6 missile going throught.

If we say the chance of interception is 20% , then we can get the next :

Now, the Patriot battery apporx. half of time can defend itself against ALL 6 incoming kinzal.
So, we can assume that the Patriot chance of defeat agaisnt single Kinzal in the most favorable, self defense mode most likelly bellow 20%, and in non self defence mode it is in the single digit percentage range.

Now, I have to say that it is in practice meaning and useless, I make two case study why.
The patriot system performance as good or inferrior compared to the next cases:
1. 20 pcs of Phalanx cis in a 500 m circle, against incoming Kinzals, having way better chance for SELF defence.
2. 2 meter diameter tungsten carbide sphere has way better self defense capability, it requrie 100-1000 kinzal to be defeated. Maybe the sphere could called as PAtriot Advanced Capability - 4 - Limitless Self Defence -> PAC-4-LSD

Right_People · May 19, 2023

Anlsvrthng said:
Let see what we know.

1. There is a most likelly valid video from atrafic or similar camera, that showing fast launch of 32 missiles from a Patriot battery.
2. Ukraine claim that they shoot down 6 Kinzal
3. Ukraine claim the Patriot battery damaged.

If we simply accept these claims on face value (that acutally would means we accept the Ukrainan claims about killing each Russian soldiers twice and destroy all russian tank made in past and future ) then the probability of interception considering 10 % chance for kill on each launches :
View attachment 112944

32 patriot missile launch, 10 % chance to interception, chances for 0/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 Kinzal kill.
Just clarification, it means that IN SELF DEFENSE with 10% chance of kill it has 5% to see one occasion when the battery defended itself successfully agains 6 incoming kinzal.

Means from 20 attack, one will be defeated, and the remaining times 1-6 missile going throught.

If we say the chance of interception is 20% , then we can get the next :
View attachment 112945
Now, the Patriot battery apporx. half of time can defend itself against ALL 6 incoming kinzal.
So, we can assume that the Patriot chance of defeat agaisnt single Kinzal in the most favorable, self defense mode most likelly bellow 20%, and in non self defence mode it is in the single digit percentage range.

Now, I have to say that it is in practice meaning and useless, I make two case study why.
The patriot system performance as good or inferrior compared to the next cases:
1. 20 pcs of Phalanx cis in a 500 m circle, against incoming Kinzals, having way better chance for SELF defence.
2. 2 meter diameter tungsten carbide sphere has way better self defense capability, it requrie 100-1000 kinzal to be defeated. Maybe the sphere could called as PAtriot Advanced Capability - 4 - Limitless Self Defence -> PAC-4-LSD

That's why I joined this forum.
There is severe mathematical autism, there is knowledge and people have STEM knowledge.
It's nice.

By the way, yesterday they showed images of Russian forces intercepting HIMARS in the Zaporozhye direction at night:

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Atomicfrog · May 19, 2023

sheogorath said:
A leaked report says the F-16's basic training course could be reduced to 4 months for the Ukranians. This would be a very basic course with no certainty as how capable would they be with them over the battlefield plus the assesment was done using simulators of two Ukranian pilots.

After that they would only receive 3 weeks of air-to-air combat training focused on interception and WVR engagements. It wouldn't include

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A couple of hours in the cockpit for basic flying is possible for trained pilots, taking off and landing without problems. A little more and they are able to drop guided gps payload with predetermined target from a good altitude and direction. Anything else would take a lot more time to be able to do efficiently.

But it would include air-air refueling training ??? They don't even have tankers... and pretty sure that any tanker above Ukraine would be easy meal. Training to do the one way flight to Ukraine with refueling ? In that case, it would be interesting to see the number of F-16 not even reaching Ukraine.

F-16 with little landing gears and ventral inlet will eat dirt, branches and rocks while taking off from dirt road, it will not survive long anyway. It's more about selling more f-35 and thwarting Russia a little bit longer.

tankphobia · May 19, 2023

Anlsvrthng said:
Let see what we know.

1. There is a most likelly valid video from atrafic or similar camera, that showing fast launch of 32 missiles from a Patriot battery.
2. Ukraine claim that they shoot down 6 Kinzal
3. Ukraine claim the Patriot battery damaged.

If we simply accept these claims on face value (that acutally would means we accept the Ukrainan claims about killing each Russian soldiers twice and destroy all russian tank made in past and future ) then the probability of interception considering 10 % chance for kill on each launches :
View attachment 112944

32 patriot missile launch, 10 % chance to interception, chances for 0/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 Kinzal kill.
Just clarification, it means that IN SELF DEFENSE with 10% chance of kill it has 5% to see one occasion when the battery defended itself successfully agains 6 incoming kinzal.

Means from 20 attack, one will be defeated, and the remaining times 1-6 missile going throught.

If we say the chance of interception is 20% , then we can get the next :
View attachment 112945
Now, the Patriot battery apporx. half of time can defend itself against ALL 6 incoming kinzal.
So, we can assume that the Patriot chance of defeat agaisnt single Kinzal in the most favorable, self defense mode most likelly bellow 20%, and in non self defence mode it is in the single digit percentage range.

Now, I have to say that it is in practice meaning and useless, I make two case study why.
The patriot system performance as good or inferrior compared to the next cases:
1. 20 pcs of Phalanx cis in a 500 m circle, against incoming Kinzals, having way better chance for SELF defence.
2. 2 meter diameter tungsten carbide sphere has way better self defense capability, it requrie 100-1000 kinzal to be defeated. Maybe the sphere could called as PAtriot Advanced Capability - 4 - Limitless Self Defence -> PAC-4-LSD

I'll be careful extrapolating stats off completely baseless assumptions. How would you even know what the kill probability of a patriot would be? It doesn't matter if you're using diagrams and models, it's still just garbage in garbage out if you're just plugging whatever numbers you feel right.

Edit: I'll clarify my post a bit.
- We don't know how many projectiles Russia launched
- We don't know what Ukraine used in defense other than patriot (other than geopard as it was in beginning of video)
- We don't know whether Ukraine only launched patriots at Kinzhals or also launched them at cruise missiles.
- We don't know how many interceptors Ukraine launched per incoming, there was at least 2 that came back down without hitting anything.

To draw any sort of conclusions based on a simple binomial distribution without any new information is just hubris.

Anlsvrthng · May 19, 2023

tankphobia said:
I'll be careful extrapolating stats off completely baseless assumptions. How would you even know what the kill probability of a patriot would be? It doesn't matter if you're using diagrams and models, it's still just garbage in garbage out if you're just plugging whatever numbers you feel right.

Read again carefully the post that you quoted.

The less than 20% chance of kill on each launch coming from the
1. observed launches
2. Claimed kills by Ukrain
3. fact the Patriot damaged.

So, if the Ukrainans doesn't shoot all incoming Kinzal, or the number of incoming m missiles was lower, or there is more than one missile went thorught then the less than 20% chance is more than overestimate.

The calculated probability is the extreme case , when the outcome of the events is the most favorable for the PAtiot battery, reality is not this optimistic.

Or you don't agree with Mr Binomial Distribution?

BoraTas · May 19, 2023

Zichan said:
This is significant: Italy delivered the first SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine.

With 120km range ARH Aster 30 missiles, the firepower of this system is superior to the Patriot and it can defend a 360 degree sector. France is expected to deliver another system of this type in the near future.

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Aster missiles have demonstrated exceptional performance against low-flying cruise missiles in tests. Significant development especially regarding Kalibr missiles.

gelgoog · May 19, 2023

Zichan said:
This is significant: Italy delivered the first SAMP/T air defense system to Ukraine.

With 120km range ARH Aster 30 missiles, the firepower of this system is superior to the Patriot and it can defend a 360 degree sector. France is expected to deliver another system of this type in the near future.

This is a decent missile system. Which is also used in European naval ships. Which also means that once Russia comes up with counter measures for it, European naval air defense systems will be wide open. This is one of the reasons why the Israelis aren't sending their systems to Ukraine.

sheogorath · May 19, 2023

Atomicfrog said:
But it would include air-air refueling training ???

It wouldn't include it precisely because Ukraine lacks suitable tankers, and it also wouldn't include the other things mentioned in the quote, either.

Basically 4 months of basic flying -> 1 month of transition associated training - > Three weeks of air-to-air combat focused on interceptions and WVR missiles.

Anlsvrthng · May 19, 2023

tankphobia said:
I'll be careful extrapolating stats off completely baseless assumptions. How would you even know what the kill probability of a patriot would be? It doesn't matter if you're using diagrams and models, it's still just garbage in garbage out if you're just plugging whatever numbers you feel right.

Edit: I'll clarify my post a bit.
- We don't know how many projectiles Russia launched
- We don't know what Ukraine used in defense other than patriot (other than geopard as it was in beginning of video)
- We don't know whether Ukraine only launched patriots at Kinzhals or also launched them at cruise missiles.
- We don't know how many interceptors Ukraine launched per incoming, there was at least 2 that came back down without hitting anything.

To draw any sort of conclusions based on a simple binomial distribution without any new information is just hubris.

Cos' could be many different scenarios, if you have spare time then possible to make calculations all of them, using available evidence, estimate probabilities for all of them, and based on this calculate the probability range and mean value for the interception chance.

Could be interesting, but if I have time then I would spend it to start builindg my fallout shelter, than to spend few day of probability analysis, to get results that is less accurate than anything that the USA/Russia has.

The quick calculation is simply the most probable best case scenario for Ukraine / Patriot

Tam · May 19, 2023

Chechen Akhmat brigade in combat somewhere in Kremennaya. Some BMP vehicle rapidly firing it's 30mm gun and what might be a Ukrainian vehicle exploding from tank fire.

M777 with cope cages and cope nets but it appears the Lancet still got through.

Bakhmut 'citadel' has fallen as 'Domino' falls. Before that a high rise building held by the Ukrainians gets a FAB-500 right into it.

The world ends with an artillery round. Ukrainian soldiers and trucks are followed by Wagnerian drones to this shelter, which receives an artillery shell.

Russian quadcopter flies low over a hidden Ukrainian tank and geolocates for artillery.

The War in the Ukraine

Anlsvrthng

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Right_People

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Atomicfrog

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tankphobia

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Anlsvrthng

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BoraTas

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gelgoog

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sheogorath

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Anlsvrthng

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Tam

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