The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath said:

It wouldn't include it precisely because Ukraine lacks suitable tankers, and it also wouldn't include the other things mentioned in the quote, either.

Basically 4 months of basic flying -> 1 month of transition associated training - > Three weeks of air-to-air combat focused on interceptions and WVR missiles.

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Anlsvrthng said:

Let see what we know.


1. There is a most likelly valid video from atrafic or similar camera, that showing fast launch of 32 missiles from a Patriot battery.
2. Ukraine claim that they shoot down 6 Kinzal
3. Ukraine claim the Patriot battery damaged.

If we simply accept these claims on face value (that acutally would means we accept the Ukrainan claims about killing each Russian soldiers twice and destroy all russian tank made in past and future ) then the probability of interception considering 10 % chance for kill on each launches :
View attachment 112944

32 patriot missile launch, 10 % chance to interception, chances for 0/1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 Kinzal kill.
Just clarification, it means that IN SELF DEFENSE with 10% chance of kill it has 5% to see one occasion when the battery defended itself successfully agains 6 incoming kinzal.

Means from 20 attack, one will be defeated, and the remaining times 1-6 missile going throught.

If we say the chance of interception is 20% , then we can get the next :
View attachment 112945
Now, the Patriot battery apporx. half of time can defend itself against ALL 6 incoming kinzal.
So, we can assume that the Patriot chance of defeat agaisnt single Kinzal in the most favorable, self defense mode most likelly bellow 20%, and in non self defence mode it is in the single digit percentage range.

Now, I have to say that it is in practice meaning and useless, I make two case study why.
The patriot system performance as good or inferrior compared to the next cases:
1. 20 pcs of Phalanx cis in a 500 m circle, against incoming Kinzals, having way better chance for SELF defence.
2. 2 meter diameter tungsten carbide sphere has way better self defense capability, it requrie 100-1000 kinzal to be defeated. Maybe the sphere could called as PAtriot Advanced Capability - 4 - Limitless Self Defence -> PAC-4-LSD

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SolarWarden said:

So exactly what is it that you're saying? That US and Ukraine officials who are there and know what happened are wrong and your assumption is correct?

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sheogorath said:

It wouldn't include it precisely because Ukraine lacks suitable tankers, and it also wouldn't include the other things mentioned in the quote, either.

Basically 4 months of basic flying -> 1 month of transition associated training - > Three weeks of air-to-air combat focused on interceptions and WVR missiles.

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Abominable said:

This is a disaster waiting to happen.

Switching from eastern jets to western ones isn't easy. A number of eastern bloc countries have had crashes directly attributed to switching over, and that is in peacetime with the transition happening at a leisurely pace with limited numbers.

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SolarWarden said:

This F16 to Ukraine is starting to get old and boring. How many times is it now that F-16's might go to Ukraine?

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Sheleah said:

It doesn't matter when, what is shown is that another Russian "red line" is falling... The West will supply everything it wants in the medium term, and the Russians will continue talking about "red lines" that no one respects anymore

On the other hand, Biden has informed the members of G7, that he will support the creation of a coalition for the joint training of Ukrainian pilots in modern fighters (including the F-16), said training will be outside of Ukraine and will begin in the next weeks. The coalition will decide when, how many, what country and model to provide to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659567005232406528

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