Intrepid
Major
But it was known long before the war that this is exactly what would happen? Putin knew that, he was warned urgently about it. Don't touch Ukraine!
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Huge Ukrainian ammo depot explosion with mushroom cloud. It must have a lot of stuff to go up the way it did.
Series of repeated explosions.
M777 taken down by Lancet yet again.
Confirmed that Wagner has access to Krasnopol and used it to take down vehicular targets.
Comment on the video says this is a Leopard tank hit by ATGM Kornet. For me it's too blurry to make a positive ID, but the bottom line is that a Ukrainian vehicle is destroyed.
Series of repeated explosions.
M777 taken down by Lancet yet again.
Confirmed that Wagner has access to Krasnopol and used it to take down vehicular targets.
Comment on the video says this is a Leopard tank hit by ATGM Kornet. For me it's too blurry to make a positive ID, but the bottom line is that a Ukrainian vehicle is destroyed.
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Potentially another helicopter downed for the day.
Huge L for Russia today. Their weapons proved to be top tier througout this war but still couldn't carry their garbage tier generals. Add to that Ukraine becoming, as previously said, a giant, decently equipped, if shoddily trained, NATO army.
I'm starting to wonder if Russia will have to massively escalate this conflict without fully mobilizing, since that's exactly what US wants, would be to hit military targets in NATO countries and then daring them to start a nuclear war over it.
I know that sounds bonkers, but please treat as a simple qustion that came to mind and I would truly appreciate if the more knowledgeable members here tell me why it's a bad idea and what better ways there are to respond to this escalation.
I'm starting to wonder if Russia will have to massively escalate this conflict without fully mobilizing, since that's exactly what US wants, would be to hit military targets in NATO countries and then daring them to start a nuclear war over it.
I know that sounds bonkers, but please treat as a simple qustion that came to mind and I would truly appreciate if the more knowledgeable members here tell me why it's a bad idea and what better ways there are to respond to this escalation.
I'm not pro-Russian but as an armchair tactical general that I claim to be I've always said from the beginning of this war that Russia should have called US/NATO bluff. They should have attacked the border where Ukraine is receiving weapons from Poland and shot down UAV/drones that fly near Crimea or Russia proper.
Russian airforce got certainly a cold shower in that region. They were more bald moves and they have been cornered. Nice hit for Ukrainian forces.
Intrepid
Major
Retreat behind the 2014 borders. There is only this one solution.
If Russia lose this war, some ego is bruised but they can recover in a decade or two. If they go all in nuclear nobody wins and Russia gets turned into glass and there will be no coming back from that.
Russian nukes are only there to prevent a direct NATO intervention/invasion, nothing more, nothing less.
But that's basically a death sentence, no ? The borders between Russia and Ukraine are extremely long and mostly plains (so no defensible land features). That means Russia would definetely bankrupt itself trying to safeguard that flank, where most of the warm regions are and a large portion of trade goes, from a potential NATO incursion. Besides, Moscow is located in range of potential NATO IRBMs when they're placed close to Russian borders in east Ukraine. That's the whole reason the war started IMHO.
One of the biggest myths is that Russia can win the war just by inflicting casulaties on Ukraine without actualy advancing on the ground.
Look at Yemen for example, the Houthis have been under one of the most strict blockades, the KSA has been trying it's best to literally starve them to death, the KSA had complete air superiorty over Yemen since the first few hours and they conducted a ferocious bombing campaign for several years aided by US inteligence and still after all this the control map in western Yemen (where most people live) has yet to change after all this bombing and killing, the only land the Saudis gained was the empty land in the east and a small land in the south. Why did the Houthis survive after all this? That is because the population under Houthi control has been completely mobilized, if you kill 10k pro Houthi militants then another 10k militants will replace them.
The same thing goes for Ukraine, Ukraine now probably has a total population of around 25 million and 4 million fit for military service.
in the best case scenario for Russia if they continue their current flawed strategy and they manage to kill say 200k Ukrainians per year then they would probably need 7-10 years for Ukraine to run out of men, since Russia is suffering at the very least 20k dead per year that means on the course of 10 years Russia would suffer 200k dead plus two or three times that wounded, so a total of around 600k dead and wounded Russians thus even if Russia ends up winning the war this way they would get out of it completely devastated with this massive human loss.
The only way to win this kind of a war against an enemy that has completely moblized it's population is by using an overwhelimingly numericaly superior ground force backed by superior firepower. For a country like Ukraine, if you don't want to end up in a slow meatgrinder that the Russians are currently in then you need to win the war quickly by having millions of soldiers marching towards Kiev and Lvov.
If the Russians have no appetite to do what needs to be done to win this war then why continue with it? Why do you continue sacraficing your soldiers? It's not like the issue is just that there are Russian soldiers dying, even the POWs are being castrated before being sent back to Russia. If you have no intention to win then just call Zelensky and sign a treaty with him in which you completely withdraw from eastern Ukraine and Ukraine joins the EU and it's mutual defence treaty and in exchange you get to keep Crimea and Ukraine doesn't join NATO and the Donbass population would be relocated to Russia just as how the people in Kherson were relocated before Ukraine gained control of it.
Look at Yemen for example, the Houthis have been under one of the most strict blockades, the KSA has been trying it's best to literally starve them to death, the KSA had complete air superiorty over Yemen since the first few hours and they conducted a ferocious bombing campaign for several years aided by US inteligence and still after all this the control map in western Yemen (where most people live) has yet to change after all this bombing and killing, the only land the Saudis gained was the empty land in the east and a small land in the south. Why did the Houthis survive after all this? That is because the population under Houthi control has been completely mobilized, if you kill 10k pro Houthi militants then another 10k militants will replace them.
The same thing goes for Ukraine, Ukraine now probably has a total population of around 25 million and 4 million fit for military service.
in the best case scenario for Russia if they continue their current flawed strategy and they manage to kill say 200k Ukrainians per year then they would probably need 7-10 years for Ukraine to run out of men, since Russia is suffering at the very least 20k dead per year that means on the course of 10 years Russia would suffer 200k dead plus two or three times that wounded, so a total of around 600k dead and wounded Russians thus even if Russia ends up winning the war this way they would get out of it completely devastated with this massive human loss.
The only way to win this kind of a war against an enemy that has completely moblized it's population is by using an overwhelimingly numericaly superior ground force backed by superior firepower. For a country like Ukraine, if you don't want to end up in a slow meatgrinder that the Russians are currently in then you need to win the war quickly by having millions of soldiers marching towards Kiev and Lvov.
If the Russians have no appetite to do what needs to be done to win this war then why continue with it? Why do you continue sacraficing your soldiers? It's not like the issue is just that there are Russian soldiers dying, even the POWs are being castrated before being sent back to Russia. If you have no intention to win then just call Zelensky and sign a treaty with him in which you completely withdraw from eastern Ukraine and Ukraine joins the EU and it's mutual defence treaty and in exchange you get to keep Crimea and Ukraine doesn't join NATO and the Donbass population would be relocated to Russia just as how the people in Kherson were relocated before Ukraine gained control of it.