The War in the Ukraine

HighGround said:

We don't, but similarly, we can't accept claims uncritically, regardless of their source.

This is plausibly a Kinzhal missile, and the balance of evidence support that conclusion. People need to get over it.

At the same time, the people who hyped the Kinzhal and its interception the most, are Western outlets, while simultaneously deriding it. It's a little contradictory and embarrassing if I'm being honest. People need to pick a lane.

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The ones hyping it are the same unreliable state sources that have offered us countless of other lies before. They'll say anything to save face for 1 news cycle.

We are shown more or less only a nondescript cone that does not match the dimensions of Kinzhal, but of course among the US NED funded, they have many arguments.

This whole debacle has an easy solution. Russia has at the very least several dozen Kinzhal. We are told that Ukraine's current offensive will beat the Russians decisively in the south, how the war will be won for Kiev anytime now. If we take that statement from our esteemed US comrades as truth, it is all but certain that Russia will use most of its Kinzhal in desparation. Then, we will see many shoot downs, if Ukraine can intercept these. At least some will show clear debris. Or maybe we won't see this, and that metal cone will go down the same way in history as Colin Powell's little test tube.

Case solved. Time will tell soon.

Biscuits said:

The ones hyping it are the same unreliable state sources that have offered us countless of other lies before. They'll say anything to save face for 1 news cycle.

We are shown more or less only a nondescript cone that does not match the dimensions of Kinzhal, but of course among the US NED funded, they have many arguments.

This whole debacle has an easy solution. Russia has at the very least several dozen Kinzhal. We are told that Ukraine's current offensive will beat the Russians decisively in the south, how the war will be won for Kiev anytime now. If we take that statement from our esteemed US comrades as truth, it is all but certain that Russia will use most of its Kinzhal in desparation. Then, we will see many shoot downs, if Ukraine can intercept these. At least some will show clear debris. Or maybe we won't see this, and that metal cone will go down the same way in history as Colin Powell's little test tube.

Case solved. Time will tell soon.

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I don't think you're looking at the situation objectively. Too much attention to who says what.

Objectively, Ukraine's ability to shoot down any Kinzhals is extremely limited. That's the takeaway even if we assume that a Kinzhal was shot down. So the big picture takeaway here is that this shoot-down is fairly inconsequential to the overall war effort even if true.

HighGround said:

We don't, but similarly, we can't accept claims uncritically, regardless of their source.

This is plausibly a Kinzhal missile, and the balance of evidence support that conclusion. People need to get over it.

At the same time, the people who hyped the Kinzhal and its interception the most, are Western outlets, while simultaneously deriding it. It's a little contradictory and embarrassing if I'm being honest. People need to pick a lane.

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I don't think Ukraine shot down a Kinzhal unless they are hiding the real wreckage. Here is my reasoning:

For me what casts a doubt over the Kinzhal debacle, besides the fact that Ukraine only got PAC-2 missiles according to their own videos, is that Ukraine gets its panties in a bunch whenever a MiG-31 takes off from Belarus and as far as I remember, there were no MiG-31 related air raid alerts the day of the claimed shoot down.

supersnoop said:

With respect to this point only...

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well today Ukraine's counteroffensive has begun, with minor success. some progress made south of bakhmut. of course it is too early to tell if this is just a one time thing, but looking at the weather forecast ukraine has a pretty good window now to make a push. given the open rift between wagner and MoD, they might as well exploit this opening if they are ready to make the move.

my prediction remains unchanged for now though, that a ukrainian counteroffensive will likely go the same way as german 1918 spring offensive, with early gains through the element of surprise, but loses steam quickly as russia figures out ukraine's intent.

If they have PAC-2 tho... They could actually threaten Russian aircraft flying above Belarus.

drowingfish said:

well today Ukraine's counteroffensive has begun, with minor success. some progress made south of bakhmut. of course it is too early to tell if this is just a one time thing, but looking at the weather forecast ukraine has a pretty good window now to make a push. given the open rift between wagner and MoD, they might as well exploit this opening if they are ready to make the move.

my prediction remains unchanged for now though, that a ukrainian counteroffensive will likely go the same way as german 1918 spring offensive, with early gains through the element of surprise, but loses steam quickly as russia figures out ukraine's intent.

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Ukraine's counter offensive has not begun what's happening in parts of Bakhmut is Russian line is breaking down and Ukraine forces in Bakhmut are taking advantaged of it. We'll all know when Ukraine starts its main offensive.

Prediction how it will go... It will go much better than the Kharkiv and Kherson offensive. Ukraine will be much better trained in combine arms tactics and much better equipped than the last offensive. Russians are much weaker than the last Ukraine offensive they were also better equipped thn now. Russian lines in the east will collapse just as fast as last time.

SolarWarden said:

The "truth?" Come on dude what you posted was YOUR opinion and not the truth.



Please post which US and NATO officials made such claims.


Russia did launch a winter offensive the problem is they failed miserably. Maybe you weren't paying attention but in Vuhledar alone Russian forces lost almost a divisions worth of armored vehicles. Russia wasted a lot of resources this winter which is why you started seeing T-62's and now T-55's taken out of storage.



Great success? Russia tried to knock out Ukraine's power grid with cruise missiles and drones this winter and failed. Also these glide bombs are supposedly hitting Ukraine positions. You're right about this will be nothing like Kharkiv, Ukraine will be much better trained and equipped while Russia will not. Russia's 72nd brigade has already abandon its position in Bakhmut according Prigozhin which is backed up by video.

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Russia doesn't have brigade with that nomenclature! Soviet Union had during WWII, but not Russia!
There is Ukrainian brigade with that name. Why are you trolling? Or maybe Prigozhin trolled you all. He's known for trolling.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

While you do have a point, according to the user I quoted, Prigozhin himself said that. I highly doubt Prigozhin is listening to UA intelligence services about the Russian TO&E for this SMO.

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He's trolling you all. Again. Like he trolled about alleged retreat, ammo, etc. He simply likes to troll. Get over it.
I also understand Russian well. It was my second foreign language in school and I'm a Serb. He doesn't mention Gazprom.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

And just in case the link doesn’t work:
View attachment 112379View attachment 112381View attachment 112380

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Makes absolutely no sense at all from an aerodynamic point of view. This warhead looks dragging. Hypersonic bodies are carefully shaped for the utmost aerodynamic efficiency. Missile warheads are covered by the aerodynamic shell or skin of the missile. You do not put any bomb as the terminal stage of a missile, affect its original aerodynamic shape, and call it a missile without seriously affecting its speed and range.

Another thing that needs to be mentioned is that hypersonic speeds create intense heat at the skin, requiring cutting edge material science. You do not put a naked bomb as a warhead on a hypersonic missile without the bomb burning up and exploding as it reaches supersonic speeds where the air friction heats up the skin. This is why the warhead is buried deep inside the missile skin. Such warheads do not appear as copies of operation bombs either since they are compartmentalized and shaped for the missile profile.

The wreckage do not show signs of the intense skin heat generated by hypersonic speeds.