The War in the Ukraine

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think Prigozhin sees the writing on the wall and is positioning himself/getting ready for the blame game when it hits fan/Ukraine begins its offensive. He doesn't speak ill of Putin just his underlings however going public like this is pretty much going rogue and against the Kremlin.

Prigozhin still has thousands of men under arms how loyal are they to him? I reckon we're going to see the coming days and weeks how much power Prigozhin has.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just take the history of friction between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership.

See the history between this friction:
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The numbered main points:

Period: September 2022

Period: September 3rd – October 2nd, 2022

Period: August 3, 2022 - January 16, 2023

Period: March 2023


Period: February 2023


Period: April to May 2023

Period: May 2023

What does all this have in common?

Surovikin.

Viewing the history of friction between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership, it evidently starts before Surovikin took over SMO as the Russian top commander in Ukraine and criticism returns soon after he was demoted in January 2023. Before Surovikin took over, it was not only Prigozhin ripping up constant criticism against the Russian military leadership, but also Kadyrov, due to the incompetence of Shoigu and Gerasimov in executing the SMO.

Before Surovikin takes over, such facts happen:
The numbered point 1
The numbered point 2

Points 1 and 2 were early September to early October 2022, where Russia was defeated in the counter-offensive in Kharkiv and in Lyman.

Surovikin takes over on October 9, 2022, shortly after the attack on the Crimean bridge, decisively when Russia had already been defeated in Kharkiv and Lyman, moreover, in addition to Prigozhin, Kadyrov consistently called for a change in the execution of the SMO, although it was more timid in his criticism than compared to Prigozhin.

After Surovikin is demoted, such events happen:
The point numbered 3
The point numbered 4
The point numbered 5
The point numbered 6
The point numbered 7

Point numbered 3 happens just when Surovikin had already been relegated on January 11, 2023, Soledar fell and the Russian MoD declared victory glory to the Russian regular army, not to PMC Wagner.

Here the friction starts to get more serious between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership.

Then came points 4, 5, 6 and 7, culminating in this recent news that Wagner would receive the ammunition and Surovikin would be the link between PMC Wagner and the Russian MoD.

In other words, we have two military groups here that want to conduct SMO in a different way. The first group is led by Shoigu and Gerasimov as main commanders, in addition to other minor generals, such as Aleksandr Lapin himself who was defeated at Izyum, commander Rustam Muradov who had serious defeats at Vuhledar, among others.

On the other side there is the group commanded by Surovikin as the main general in the execution of the SMO with Prigozhin and Kadyrov being his subordinates just as it was when Gen. Armageddon took over until he was demoted in Jan 2023, clearly Surovikin had the support of other minor generals, we publicly know that one of them is Mikhail Mizintsev himself, after he was dismissed on April 30, 2023, he joined PMC Wagner, clearly he falls into this second group, it was after his resignation at the end of April 2023 that Prigozhin started talking about Bakhmut's departure.

You see there is internal friction in the way SMO is run, with one side being Shoigu and Gerasimov and the other being Prigozhin, Kadyrov and Surovikin. After this recent news that Surovikin will end up being the link between the PMC and the Russian MoD, there is no doubt about this internal friction. As Shoigu and Gerasimov clearly have more access to Putin and more power than Surovikin even because he is a silovik, he had to give in and demote Surovikin by placing him below Gerasimov in the execution of the SMO.

Putin had to end up rewarding the incompetent and demoting the competent. Just look at the mess SMO was in from February to October 2022, culminating in the final act, the Crimean Bridge attack, things only started to get less worse when Surovikin took over, stabilizing the entire frontline, starting to creating the set of fortifications and attacking facilities and infrastructure in Ukraine, something that until then was not accomplished by the previous incompetent leadership (except at the beginning of the war), this with the military in an ongoing war of attrition, which only leaves even more Clearly these guys had no idea what they were doing.

It is worth remembering, when the Russians had to retreat from the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson, Prigozhin and Kadyrov did not criticize as they used to do with Shoigu and Gerasimov, they understood Surovikin's decision that even assuming he had to retreat from the bank right of the Dnieper river in Kherson, obligatorily due to the incompetence of the previous leaderships, shortly before starting to effectively carry out this, he was giving the opinion that he would have to make difficult decisions, which he clearly ended up doing, retreating all Russian units from the right bank of the river Dnieper river in Kherson.

The relationship between Surovikin and PMC Wagner became so helpful that Prigozhin was starting to receive modern tanks, the T-90M.
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Mizintsev was head of logistics during the months Prigozhyn was complaining about the lack of ammo, yet Prigozhyn appoints him as deputy commander, meaning second in command, of the Wagner PMC. Mizintsev, who has the nickname Butcher of Mariupol, ran that campaign in a fairly bloody, delayed, and messy manner which is in stark contrast to the swift takeover of the Soledar salt mines and Azov steel plants in northern Bakhmut.

Surovikin's tenure was accepted as temporary, he is the head of the VKS or Air Force despite being a former army general, commanding the Russian Army isn't his job. Gerasimov taking over the campaign isn't Surovikin being demoted, but the entire SMO being promoted to the responsibility of the entire Russian Armed Forces, making it an escalation.

And this is better so, because Surovikin is one that commands units in detail, leaving the upper strategic work to Gerasimov. This is when things began to happen, namely the bold breakout in Soledar.

As for Soledar, it should rightly be called a Russian armed forces victory because the VDV was involved. I recalled correctly from the YouTube mappers that VDV forces landed helicopters both north and south in a very risky operation less than 500 meters from the lines as flanking maneuvers while Wagner has the center trust. This caught the Ukrainian forces completely by surprise. All during this time the DPR was providing artillery support.

It was also around this time that Teplinsky was dismissed as commanding general of Russian Airborne for reasons I have not put together. The guy was a soldier's general and a hardcore one who led the Airborne in the defense of Kherson back in October. But by April he is back leading the VDV again. This also makes me wonder what he was doing in the last three months? Did he had issues with Prigozhyn and Surovikin's handling of the VDV? Did he moonlight in Wagner during the time period? Wagner is known to have many ex-VDV personnel.

Another question I have is what is this 72nd Brigade? It's not in both the VDV and the DPR's roster, which are the two forces in Bakhmut.

I am going to add that bloggers who have connections to Wagner on the ground have mentioned that Wagnerians are opposed to leaving Bakhmut and want to see things through. So Prigozhyn wanting to leave Bakhmut wasn't in alignment with the Wagner soldiers themselves. The on ground description given by these connections point to massive artillery barrages on both sides that do not suggest both sides lacking any ammunition or that Wagner is not given enough artillery and firepower support.

Maybe Prigozhyn wants a couple of TOS which has yet to be given to Wagner, even though the VDV received their first units and the Kadyrovites had them since last year.
 
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Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Mizintsev was head of logistics during the months Prigozhyn was complaining about the lack of ammo, yet Prigozhyn appoints him as deputy commander, meaning second in command, of the Wagner PMC. Mizintsev, who has the nickname Butcher of Mariupol, ran that campaign in a fairly bloody, delayed, and messy manner which is in stark contrast to the swift takeover of the Soledar salt mines and Azov steel plants in northern Bakhmut.
Mizintsev took Surovikin's entire period and was only fired in April 2023, after the Russian command received a lot of criticism regarding the ammunition supplied to PMC Wagner. Prigozhin only complained when Surovikin was not in charge of SMO. Mizintsev couldn't do anything about it because he was a subordinate of Gerasimov just like Surovikin since January 2023, even if he wanted to.
Surovikin's tenure was accepted as temporary, he is the head of the VKS or Air Force despite being a former army general, commanding the Russian Army isn't his job. Gerasimov taking over the campaign isn't Surovikin being demoted, but the entire SMO being promoted to the responsibility of the entire Russian Armed Forces, making it an escalation.

And this is better so, because Surovikin is one that commands units in detail, leaving the upper strategic work to Gerasimov. This is when things began to happen, namely the bold breakout in Soledar.
The funny thing about this is the reason Gerasimov didn't take the lead for the SMO in October, especially after the explosion of the Crimean bridge, it would have been the right time for Gerasimov to have taken over, a huge escalation on the part of Ukraine, don't you think? Why didn't he do this?
It was also around this time that Teplinsky was dismissed as commanding general of Russian Airborne for reasons I have not put together. The guy was a soldier's general and a hardcore one who led the Airborne in the defense of Kherson back in October. But by April he is back leading the VDV again. This also makes me wonder what he was doing in the last three months? Did he had issues with Prigozhyn and Surovikin's handling of the VDV? Did he moonlight in Wagner during the time period? Wagner is known to have many ex-VDV personnel.
Ask Gerasimov that. Rob Lee declares that his resignation may be associated with Gerasimov taking over SMO motivated by internal decisions (ego????).

What I particularly notice about Gerasimov is that he likes to fire the competent, his ego seems to be bigger than Putin's.

Perhaps the biggest danger to Russia right now is not Ukraine, but its own military high command. The military high command fires competent generals and blames its own failures.

Gerasimov,

the man without a doctrine​

 
D

Deleted member 23272

Guest
Rome, Greece, and China are rife with examples of militarily talented men who weren't particularly good at, or had no use for court intrigues, much to their own detriment and ultimately the detriment of their respective empire's interests.

As for the parade, its quite astonishing. Whatever excuse one may come up with, Victory Day is the most important Russian holiday after New Years. And Russia is a country that inherited thousands of stockpiles from the Soviet Union.

What can be said about how stripped down the parade was, other than what a lot of people have said about the Russian military is in fact not propaganda but true. That its stockpiles really is just smoke and mirrors, since only a portion of it is functioning due to neglect or being stripped down for the black market. (Granted, even if only a fraction of what Russia has on paper actually works it would still be bigger than the majority of the world's militaries.) That most, if not all, of its professional forces are in Ukraine, otherwise why are most of the participants for this one cadets?

There is no "holding back" or "devoting a tiny fraction of its elite units to support Donbass freedom fighters," everything that Russia held up to the world to preserve its superpower image has now been thrown in over a struggle to control the southeastern part of Europe's poorest country. Only thing that hasn't stepped into the ring yet is the T-14 Armata. (But first they actually have to get the engine on that thing working)
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
A successful S-300 kill by a Lancet. This one hit straight to the standing canisters. Based on the terrain I would say this is February or March but was only cleared for viewing recently.


Lancet managed to hit a camouflaged 2S1 Gvozdika SPG.

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Successful ATGM hit against a Ukrainian vehicle from the Kalmius brigade of the DPR.


Glide bombing at Avdiivka. More and more frequent. In addition to the FAB-500 the FAB-250 will soon get their glide kits. While half the weight of the FAB-500, it allows the bomber to engage twice more targets at a greater range.

 
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