Brief summary so far:
- Russia made rapid gains in the south (Kherson/Melitopol) within the 1st week, and a super-long grind to gain Mariupol after 2-3 months. The south was the least defended region.
- Northern and northeastern section was a complete waste of time and resources.
- Eastern section, Izyum was a major gain; they already occupied Donetsk/Luhansk via Peacekeepers/puppet militias.
Results:
- Round one goes Ukraine (mostly to due Russian fuck ups)
- Round two is just beginning, Russia beginning to made slow and steady progress in eastern region.
Prediction:
- This is going to be a long-ass war.
With respect to "round one", I don't think it can be overlooked that the Ukrainian military fights with determination.
However, I think "unlimited" Western support has had one unintended consequence. That same determination has rubbed off onto the Russians.
A short political background...
Putin is often painted as a dictator by the Western media, but this is really a gross mischaracterization. I have seen that even some articles quote Putin's opposition conceding that it is unlikely he would lose any election even if it was totally "free, fair, and transparent". At the heart of it, most Russians do not trust that the West has their best interests at heart. The material support that Ukraine is getting is proving these people correct in their minds.
