The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Congratz.. tho it means that she will have a big red paint on her. Ukrainians will try kill her the first time Harpoons from Denmark arrived. Gotta feeling US may supply extra rounds.
Svetlodarsk is under Russian control now.
The Ukrainians actually did something clever here - the politicians left the military to make the correct decision to withdraw to fight another day instead of potentially let another pocket to be formed and pinched out later.
Luhansk seems to be also taken, way to Bakhmut from the south is now right open.
Luhansk seems to be also taken, way to Bakhmut from the south is now right open.
Bakhmut(soon Artemivsk) isnt going to much of an obstacle if the goal is to close up Sievierodonetsk, the highway bypasses the urban center which doesnt have that many high-rises anyway. After that there nothing until Slavyansk but they dont even need to go that far to close it up.
Another brigade complaining about being sent to their deaths:
There's one of these being sent out everyday. Keeping the fighting in the east has been the correct strategy.
There's one of these being sent out everyday. Keeping the fighting in the east has been the correct strategy.
The one thing that I still don't understand is why the Russian Air Force isn't using more PGM's. They have laser and satellite guided bombs in the KAB series. The SU-30's, SU-34's and SU-35's are capable launching these weapons. So why haven't they ? Is it really about the lack of stockpiles ? These weapons have been available for export for decades and they couldn't build up their own stockpile's in all this time and all these years.
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For one reason or another, they have never been able to mass produce PGM's in sufficient quantities. That and soviet-made stockpiles are huge, so it you gotta make do with what you have, particularly if the SVP-24 provides good enough accuracy for most scenarios.
Also, only the Su-34, Forpost and Inodets have laser-designators; neither the Su-30 or Su-35 can carry pods at this time as there is none in active service with the VKS.
Also, only the Su-34, Forpost and Inodets have laser-designators; neither the Su-30 or Su-35 can carry pods at this time as there is none in active service with the VKS.
Guancha had a great livecast today with Shilao, Ayi, Xi Yazhou and their resident Russian expert on the war, with a lot of details on the level of informatization within Russian forces. Other than that they had a very long discussion on casualty and destruction of technical equipment on both sides.
The one conclusion they came to is the idea of a "breaking point" for Ukraine. That is the war will continue on to be a very slow slogfest that we're seeing now, until suddenly you find Ukrainian defense just collapsing and you will start seeing Russians start to worry about where to keep all the PoWs they're getting and advancing at rapid rate. You will also see all Ukrainian counterattack end at this point.
Ukraine is losing well trained highly motivated troops at the rate of 3 digit a day, and similar rate in equipment. Manpower loss are being replaced by less well trained and lower morale territorial defense troops and even with NATO giving them supplies, they are having trouble replacing all the gears they are losing. In particular they point to these photos in recent days as evidence:
This BMP-2K with very unusual camo, captured and put back into use by Chechen troops belonged to the military department of Chernivtsi University (western Ukraine) and was used for study purposes. You can imagine the state of Ukrainian equipment if they're pressing vehicles like this to the front line.
As the quality of men and equipment decrease due to attrition the standard of replacement will keep on falling, and as they fall their combat effectiveness also falls which will lead onto even greater loses, so on and so forth into an acceleration feedback loop. And along with the losses the morale will also fall creating discipline problems. We are already starting to see front line units refusing to fight. As long as Russia keeps the PoW option open by treating prisoners well as they did with those from Azovstal that option becomes more and more tempting, until the breaking point is reached and Ukrainian defense start to collapse in earnest.
NATO may try to keep Ukraine in the fight by providing equipment of ever greater quality. If the chips are down and NATO decide to go all in and start shipping MBTs and that sort of heavy equipment then Ayi argues there's suddenly great value in keeping Russians in the fight in face of this onslaught, as every missile that falls onto them will mean one less missile on top of PLA when the moment of reunification finally comes. Thus should this happens who knows what crazy weapon will suddenly appear in Russian hands.
The one conclusion they came to is the idea of a "breaking point" for Ukraine. That is the war will continue on to be a very slow slogfest that we're seeing now, until suddenly you find Ukrainian defense just collapsing and you will start seeing Russians start to worry about where to keep all the PoWs they're getting and advancing at rapid rate. You will also see all Ukrainian counterattack end at this point.
Ukraine is losing well trained highly motivated troops at the rate of 3 digit a day, and similar rate in equipment. Manpower loss are being replaced by less well trained and lower morale territorial defense troops and even with NATO giving them supplies, they are having trouble replacing all the gears they are losing. In particular they point to these photos in recent days as evidence:
This BMP-2K with very unusual camo, captured and put back into use by Chechen troops belonged to the military department of Chernivtsi University (western Ukraine) and was used for study purposes. You can imagine the state of Ukrainian equipment if they're pressing vehicles like this to the front line.
As the quality of men and equipment decrease due to attrition the standard of replacement will keep on falling, and as they fall their combat effectiveness also falls which will lead onto even greater loses, so on and so forth into an acceleration feedback loop. And along with the losses the morale will also fall creating discipline problems. We are already starting to see front line units refusing to fight. As long as Russia keeps the PoW option open by treating prisoners well as they did with those from Azovstal that option becomes more and more tempting, until the breaking point is reached and Ukrainian defense start to collapse in earnest.
NATO may try to keep Ukraine in the fight by providing equipment of ever greater quality. If the chips are down and NATO decide to go all in and start shipping MBTs and that sort of heavy equipment then Ayi argues there's suddenly great value in keeping Russians in the fight in face of this onslaught, as every missile that falls onto them will mean one less missile on top of PLA when the moment of reunification finally comes. Thus should this happens who knows what crazy weapon will suddenly appear in Russian hands.
As well as the military collapse (mass desertions, defections) like we saw in Iraq, you have the possibility of civil structure collapse like Afghanistan. While things are relatively normal in Russia, Ukraine is in a total war situation with more and more draconian laws being implemented. All news from Ukraine is highly censored, but I doubt it is very stable right now. High fuel prices, people surviving on rations, etc. The appeal to patriotism can only last so long.
There's been a few Ukrainian MPs being pictured fleeing the country over the past few days, I wonder if that's a sign of things to come.