Ukraine planning a major counteroffensive against Kherson.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Ukraine planning a major counteroffensive against Kherson.
What's going on here? Are the Russians doing 四面楚歌 like it's Galwan 2020?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Might actually be the case!
Waiting on western MSM to get Google the two references and then headline it was confirmation that China is involved in Ukraine!
LOL...
European Commission vice-president in charge for High-Representative of the Union for Foreign Policy and Security Policy Josep Borrell © AFP / Kenzo Tribouillard
The EU needs to take more responsibility for its security and compensate for the shortfalls that have been underlined by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the bloc’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borell has warned.
“The most obvious example” of such shortfalls are “the depleted stockpiles resulting from the military support we provided to Ukraine” Borrell in his blog on Sunday.
But there were many others “inherited from past budget cuts and underinvestment,” he added.
According to Borrell, combined defense spending, across the bloc, has increased by only 20% from 1999 to 2021, compared to 66% for the US, 292% for Russia and 592% for China.
The events in Ukraine have resulted in “a tectonic shift of the European security landscape,” the diplomat insisted. “Now it is clear that Europe is in danger.”
In such circumstances, “the EU needs to take on more responsibility for its own security,” which would require creating “modern and interoperable European armed forces, looking at the higher-end of the spectrum and also striving to scale up capabilities and forces,” he pointed out.
Investments in the military must be coordinated among the EU member states as unilateral moves by countries could become “a waste of money, with the risk of multiplying existing loopholes and needless duplications,” Borrell warned.
The diplomat named three main lines of action that should eventually allow the bloc to eradicate the current gaps in its defense.
They include working on the combat readiness of their forces and stockpile replenishment, the modernization of air defenses, cyber and space-based capabilities and to jointly develop future key capabilities such as main battle tanks.
“The time to push forward European defense is now. We need to strengthen the European defense industrial base and to be operational with the needed military capacities. To be able to increase our military capacity to defend ourselves, to make NATO stronger and to support better our partners whenever needed,” Borrell insisted.
Moscow has decried EU involvement in the Ukrainian conflict and its increasing militarization, with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying earlier this month that the bloc “is turning from a constructive economic platform that it was originally meant to be to being an aggressive militant player that has ambitions stretching far beyond the European continent.”
The EU “follows in the footsteps of NATO,” Lavrov insisted. The two entities are in the process of merging and in the future the EU will operate as merely an extension of the US-led military alliance, Lavrov said.
Besides sanctioning Russia, the EU has already allocated €2 billion for military aid to Kiev amid its conflict with Moscow. Borrell said in April that “this war must be won on the battlefield.” He also promised that “the EU will not let Ukraine run out of [military] equipment.”
EU’s weapons stockpile depleted – Borrell
The conflict in Ukraine has revealed numerous shortfalls in the bloc’s security, Josep Borrell says
European Commission vice-president in charge for High-Representative of the Union for Foreign Policy and Security Policy Josep Borrell © AFP / Kenzo Tribouillard
The EU needs to take more responsibility for its security and compensate for the shortfalls that have been underlined by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the bloc’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borell has warned.
“The most obvious example” of such shortfalls are “the depleted stockpiles resulting from the military support we provided to Ukraine” Borrell in his blog on Sunday.
But there were many others “inherited from past budget cuts and underinvestment,” he added.
According to Borrell, combined defense spending, across the bloc, has increased by only 20% from 1999 to 2021, compared to 66% for the US, 292% for Russia and 592% for China.
The events in Ukraine have resulted in “a tectonic shift of the European security landscape,” the diplomat insisted. “Now it is clear that Europe is in danger.”
In such circumstances, “the EU needs to take on more responsibility for its own security,” which would require creating “modern and interoperable European armed forces, looking at the higher-end of the spectrum and also striving to scale up capabilities and forces,” he pointed out.
Investments in the military must be coordinated among the EU member states as unilateral moves by countries could become “a waste of money, with the risk of multiplying existing loopholes and needless duplications,” Borrell warned.
The diplomat named three main lines of action that should eventually allow the bloc to eradicate the current gaps in its defense.
They include working on the combat readiness of their forces and stockpile replenishment, the modernization of air defenses, cyber and space-based capabilities and to jointly develop future key capabilities such as main battle tanks.
“The time to push forward European defense is now. We need to strengthen the European defense industrial base and to be operational with the needed military capacities. To be able to increase our military capacity to defend ourselves, to make NATO stronger and to support better our partners whenever needed,” Borrell insisted.
Moscow has decried EU involvement in the Ukrainian conflict and its increasing militarization, with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying earlier this month that the bloc “is turning from a constructive economic platform that it was originally meant to be to being an aggressive militant player that has ambitions stretching far beyond the European continent.”
The EU “follows in the footsteps of NATO,” Lavrov insisted. The two entities are in the process of merging and in the future the EU will operate as merely an extension of the US-led military alliance, Lavrov said.
Besides sanctioning Russia, the EU has already allocated €2 billion for military aid to Kiev amid its conflict with Moscow. Borrell said in April that “this war must be won on the battlefield.” He also promised that “the EU will not let Ukraine run out of [military] equipment.”
Aren't Ukraine already beginning to run out of equipment lol? Or well they don't have enough still.
In any case, they will have to choose between:These are some example of Patriot coverage in several Ukrainian cities. Despite existence of gaps against low fliers. It does still provide some "point defense". This assumes at least PAC-2GEM-T or PAC-3 with AN/MPQ-65 Radar. The thing has uprated transmitter and maybe better receiver with about 20-30% more range compared to original AN/MPQ-53 Patriot had back then.
Odessa.
As seen, deployment in Odessa give kind of good coverage, against high altitude target it can be used at maximum range (160-220 km) For low fliers it will however protect only the city. It may can be used to deny access to Transnistrian airspace as Ukraine is claiming of doing.
Kharkov
Deployed in city of Kharkov a Patriot may deny use 5000 m altitude as deep as Kursk where Russian Su-30 base are located, but for low altitude target, Coverage become spotty with notable "gap" in northern direction against target flying at about 40-100 meters. This deployment however might be risky as it so close to Russian forces. The battery would be highly vulnerable not only from Russian means of defense suppression but also conventional artilleries.
Kiev
Similar coverage as one in Kharkov, the battery may engage high altitude target flying as deep as Mazar, Belarus and radar coverage as deep as Gomel. These cities are notable for Russian fighters flying high and releasing standoff weapon. Low altitude coverage exhibit kind of similar gaps as Kharkov.
Lviv
The battery have notable good coverage against target flying as low as 500 m but appears much less so against lower flying target. It may still however reduce chance of another Yavoriv from happening. The high altitude coverage seems good to cover most of Eastern Ukraine.
Dnipropetrovsk
Placement of Patriot there may allow coverage of Russian occupied territory in Lugansk and Donetsk, high altitude coverage even extend as deep as Mariupol and most of Kherson oblast. Had this present earlier it may contribute to Mariupol campaign and bombing of Azovstal with conventional bombs by Tu-22M3's probably wont happen.
Regardless of performance against Houthi drones and Ballistic missiles (well KSA bought THAAD supposedly to relieve their patriots from that role) It is a threat Russia should not (and naturally) underestimate. Technical means of suppression exist even back in 1980's with apparent existence of Tochka equipped with anti radiation warhead to suppress NATO patriot battery. Su-34 with that big dangling jammer will finally get more representative target for their SAP-14's and should be carrying KH-31's or something with longer range to deal with Patriots.
I believe the US will send at least PAC-2 with range of at least 160 km maybe also with specific anti standoff jammer missile with 200 km range.
1) Depleting their ammo against small UAV and change nothing in the conflict beside gaining some attention.
2) Waiting for better targets and being found by UAV and blasted by standoff weapons, changing nothing in the conflict beside maybe a lucky shot.
3) Depleting their ammo against MLRS, Iskander and some cruise missiles, changing nothing in the conflict beside providing some data to the US.
What will they choose ?
The south going breakthrough coming out of Popasna salient is making good progress in recent days:
Troitskoye taken 3 days ago
Mironovsky taken yesterday.
Being driven from Mironovsky, Ukrainians retreated towards the direction of Bakhmut, blowing up the bridge over Lugan River that's part of the M03 highway.
So the Russians decided to go around and are attacking in the direction of Svitlodarsk. If Ukrainians then retreat from Svitlodarsk this would then lead to the approach to Bakhmut being completely open from south-east. If Russians attack up the M03 they circumvent three heavily fortified hills and can go straight to the most critical transport hub of the current Donbas front. Bakhmut is also facing potential attack from north east from Soledar direction.
Russians are already softening up Bakhmut with missiles and artillery, with some local help:
It's gotten bad enough that pro-Ukrainian watchers are getting worried. Interesting that they themselves reckon there's debate between the military who want to retreat and reorganise defense vs the politicians who want them to hold their ground to maintain a winning image least the US abandons them.
Troitskoye taken 3 days ago
Mironovsky taken yesterday.
Being driven from Mironovsky, Ukrainians retreated towards the direction of Bakhmut, blowing up the bridge over Lugan River that's part of the M03 highway.
So the Russians decided to go around and are attacking in the direction of Svitlodarsk. If Ukrainians then retreat from Svitlodarsk this would then lead to the approach to Bakhmut being completely open from south-east. If Russians attack up the M03 they circumvent three heavily fortified hills and can go straight to the most critical transport hub of the current Donbas front. Bakhmut is also facing potential attack from north east from Soledar direction.
Russians are already softening up Bakhmut with missiles and artillery, with some local help:
It's gotten bad enough that pro-Ukrainian watchers are getting worried. Interesting that they themselves reckon there's debate between the military who want to retreat and reorganise defense vs the politicians who want them to hold their ground to maintain a winning image least the US abandons them.
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Errrm, is it too late to convert to Russian Orthodox for that resurrection passive? Dude's been killed like 10 times.
Did we ever find out if he was the nephew of Valery Gerasimov or not?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Pro-Ukrainian Redditors fighting the internet war these days: ‘I swear we killed that same guy like 10 times already!’
They have probably asked comrade Kim to learn the Russians priests to perform Juche necromancy.