The War in the Ukraine

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
Whats going on here, is Wagner really going to leave Bakhmut? Seems like they aren't supplied properly

It's the same circus they've been doing for 3 months. I used to think it was real, as Wagner and the Russian MoD have their differences, but honestly, I think it's a disinformation campaign. Prighozin probably did that thing of showing Wagner's dead bodies so that Ukraine would stay and fight.
It all seems too well coordinated to be honest.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Retarded Twitter post. Integration of disparate systems is never that simple.
I think 99% of people doesn't grasp the magnitude of issue that Ukraine has.

Let say Ukraine had in 2021 inherited from the Soviet Union 3000 S-300 missiles, and another 6000 for medium /short range systems.

It would means 10 missile for each four missile s-300 launchers, so we don't talk about an excessive ammount.

If they used up that ammount of stock in a years time, then the cost of replenishment to last for one more year by USA systems:
Patriot : 4 million each (2021 prices) , * 3000 = 12 billion $
medium range missiles : 2 million each *6000 = 12 billion $


So, ONLY the value of epxended , inherited missiles in past year was 24 billion $, HALF of the procurment budget of the USA navy.

Say they want to transfer over to the patriot and all other garden variety systems, that would cost another 24 billion for radar, TEL, communication, maintanance and command posts, and we reached the FULL procurment budget of the USA navy.

Add ALL OHTER systems that the proxy war would need in the next year easly would eat the FULL procurment budget of USA military.

Of course there is not so much use for submarines, aircraft carriers and so on, so there would need an extreme push and spending for new manufacturing capacities, and that easly require the 2-4 times of the procurment budget, means the USA would needs to double the 2023-2024 military budget if want to keep on level the capability of Ukrainan army.

Again, it wouldn't make the Ukrainan army STRONGER, only stay on the same level like in 2022

All takl about the Israel systems missing the magnitude, Ukraine 30 times bigger than Israel. All defense system from Israel would be enought for a small portion of the front.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
All takl about the Israel systems missing the magnitude, Ukraine 30 times bigger than Israel. All defense system from Israel would be enought for a small portion of the front.
I think the Israeli AA would simply supplement long range air defense, not replace it. Iron Dome has already proven itself via 1000+ interceptions of rockets, they don't need to be everywhere, just near critical infrastructure to save the big missiles for VKS aircraft, such systems would pretty much completely nullify the effect of Shaheds and cruise missiles had on the power grid earlier in the war, but since Ukraine is already running critically low on s-300 ammo, it makes little difference now.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
I think the Israeli AA would simply supplement long range air defense, not replace it. Iron Dome has already proven itself via 1000+ interceptions of rockets, they don't need to be everywhere, just near critical infrastructure to save the big missiles for VKS aircraft, such systems would pretty much completely nullify the effect of Shaheds and cruise missiles had on the power grid earlier in the war, but since Ukraine is already running critically low on s-300 ammo, it makes little difference now.
I presume you are a visual person.

So, map bellow showing the area and size difference between Israel an Ukraine.

An the SAM batteries in israel protect a small portion only, not the whole country.

isvuk.jpg
 

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
I presume you are a visual person.

So, map bellow showing the area and size difference between Israel an Ukraine.

An the SAM batteries in israel protect a small portion only, not the whole country.

View attachment 111818
Other factors must also be taken into account.
Israeli intelligence is excellent in every way, from agents on the ground to satellites.
The batteries have to cover a fairly small angle, as the missiles come from a few already known locations, and these missiles are rudimentary.

Of course, I'm not trying to say that these are not amazing systems, but this war shows that like all wars, the devices are not perfect when they act in the real world.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
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Battle of Kyiv
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Initial Russian Advance & Capture of Kherson
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Western Sanctions
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Battle of Mariupol
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Moskva Cruiser Sinking
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Battle of Severodonetsk
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Himars and Western Supplies
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Kherson Counter-Offensive
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Kharkiv Counter-Offensive
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Attack on the Crimean Bridge
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Russian Mobilisation
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Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Infrastructure
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Battle of Bakhmut
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Bucha Massacre
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The Grain Deal
The battle of Kyiv definitely is the most the key battle of the war.
 

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member

The battle of Kyiv definitely is the most the key battle of the war.
Oh boy, I had to torture myself and I went to straight to the "Sanctions" part, which is one of the few things we have somewhat true data (since Russia is quite open about their numbers)
He had to mention January and February deficits, which were in fact what the Russian Central Bank say would happen since:
1 - Initial impact of price cap would be felt
2 - Changes in the budget transfers were to be made, many transfers of funds were made in the begining of the year instead of through the year.

It is 30 April and the documentary is 6h old, so IF this was a REAL documentary, he could have made a quick look into ANY russian newspapper and surprise surprise:
descarga.png

March is back into "profit" just as central bank predicted.
I could go on about how 90% of this "OSINT" guys forgot the "I" somewhere.

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Soon we will have preliminary data on April, but his narrative, was literally born outdated and fake.
 

pevade

Junior Member
Registered Member
Four out of five Mugin 5 Pro drones that attacked Sevastopol were shot down. The one that got through hit the bunker oil tanks, unfortunately for the Russians. Fortunately the fire is now under control and there were no casualties.

Its actually insane how that tiny little warhead can cause so much damage.
 
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