The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
of course not. it carried Externally.
Snek doesnt really know what throwing the Kh-31's. My bet however is the Flanker families can be Su-30, 34 or 35's.
Time for the Bakhmut chapter to close in May. This will likely become a frozen conflict in the same vein as PRC-ROC and North and South Korea. The only big winner has been the USA Global Imperium which has increased it's hold and sway in Europe with other parties losing greatly.
I started to wander about the starting stock of Ukraine S-300 missiles.
By the wiki , which pulling data from this article :
The production batch of S-300P was 3000 launcher and 28 000 missile.
Now, there are data that say Ukraine had 300 launchers at 2021, so I think they shoul have around 3000 missiles with these.
Means in the past year if they used up 10 missile /day then they used up the stock.
Issues it all of the missiles that they had 30 years old, and if we consider the self life is 15 years then they are way outdated.
Actually, 3000 missile for 300 launchers means they could refill each empty launchers 1.5 times. And now all missile is on TELs.
Question is the Patriot inventory of the USA.
In 2018 they doubled the production rate to double , to 500 /years.
Means there should be 2000 new patriot, and maybe 5000 from the production run between 1998-2018.
There is talk about to increase the self life to 45 years ( poor man air defense ) , I think to preserve part of cold war invnetory.
So, if we say there was a production run of 3000 between 1988-1998, then should be around 10 000 Patriot missile in worldwide inventory.
Now, we can compare it to the production run of the S-300P between 1985-2012 with 28 000 missiles.
So, I think the current usable patriot stock could be in the rance of 7000 missiles, so dedicating half of the stock to Ukraine would give one more year for its air defense. If they can use it as effectivly as the S-300, but considering the inferiority of PAtriot compared to the Soviet systems the lifetime of that stock could be way less.
And even that would deplete seriously the patriot stock,leaving most likelly only one load for all patriot missile launchers.
By the wiki , which pulling data from this article :
The production batch of S-300P was 3000 launcher and 28 000 missile.
Now, there are data that say Ukraine had 300 launchers at 2021, so I think they shoul have around 3000 missiles with these.
Means in the past year if they used up 10 missile /day then they used up the stock.
Issues it all of the missiles that they had 30 years old, and if we consider the self life is 15 years then they are way outdated.
Actually, 3000 missile for 300 launchers means they could refill each empty launchers 1.5 times. And now all missile is on TELs.
Question is the Patriot inventory of the USA.
In 2018 they doubled the production rate to double , to 500 /years.
Means there should be 2000 new patriot, and maybe 5000 from the production run between 1998-2018.
There is talk about to increase the self life to 45 years ( poor man air defense ) , I think to preserve part of cold war invnetory.
So, if we say there was a production run of 3000 between 1988-1998, then should be around 10 000 Patriot missile in worldwide inventory.
Now, we can compare it to the production run of the S-300P between 1985-2012 with 28 000 missiles.
So, I think the current usable patriot stock could be in the rance of 7000 missiles, so dedicating half of the stock to Ukraine would give one more year for its air defense. If they can use it as effectivly as the S-300, but considering the inferiority of PAtriot compared to the Soviet systems the lifetime of that stock could be way less.
And even that would deplete seriously the patriot stock,leaving most likelly only one load for all patriot missile launchers.
Forzen conflict would means both party has same military industrial capacity to keep at bay the other.
In this case the Russians has bigger and better capacity, means in medium term they can outgun without trouble the NATO.
Unless NATO economies enter war mode, I think you are right.
I don't think they will, after this year they will probably declare that Russia have depleted most of his military hardwares and is not a direct threat for 20years to come, enough for Putin to be out of the pictures. They have done enough for weapon to be build and giving big money in greedy pockets.
It will be seen like a win, they will dance on stage and declare mission done. Brainwash most of the population with another conflict or sickness and it will be all good. Ukraine will be no more and nobody will care because ''the west always win''.
This war has demonstrated that even the Soviet era GBAD have formidable staying power.
Especially the Buk systems, with their high mobility standalone TELARs have been proven to be a particular PITA for the VKS.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The only time in modern history when a conflict have stalemated is the Korean War, when two sets of external forces were directly engaged in open combat. In all other instances of proxy wars where one side was fighting while the other was only supplying arms, it resulted in total victory for one side. The side that won all these proxy wars have always been the side that wanted victory more and got longer.
For NATO and the US, Ukraine is a war of choice, and at a time when they are actively preparing if not seeking to start a far bigger war against China. For Russia, Ukraine is a war of national survival.
Ukraine have been able to resist with overwhelming NATO materials support. But that material support is increasingly straining the already weakened western economies and rapidly depleting their inherited Cold War weapons supplies and far smaller stocks of post-Cold War weapons and munitions. It will be only a matter of time before the US and NATO tire of propping up Ukraine, after which their resistance will collapse irrespective of the fighting sprit of the Ukrainians. You cannot fight tanks with shovels.