The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Artillery strike from the 1st Armored Division at the Kremenneya - Svatovo front at a Ukrainian ammunition depot. The depot lit up.


This Krab has an ammo supply truck next to it when the Lancet struck. Fire quickly spread to the truck and the truck lit up.


TOS at work in the forests of Kremenneya where slugging matches remain ongoing.

 
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obj 705A

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia is incapable of identifying transports from NATO countries and eliminating them when they enter Ukraine. It's an obvious and blatant shortcoming of military capabilities and military capabilities alone. Successful interdiction of those transports would severely limit the ability of NATO to provide aid at minimal cost to Russia in military terms. It is therefore a highly desirable solution in political terms but Russia is simply incapable of it.
If you think it is possible for a military to completely cover the supply lines along such a long border such as that between NATO & Ukraine just from the air using the airforce then you have no idea what you are talking. That is just not possible, take Gaza for example, even though Israel has Gaza under a strict blockade yet Iran sometimes still finds ways to smuggle weapons to Gaza using that tiny border between Egypt & Gaza. If Iran can pull that off against Israel with such a small border using tunnels then I'm sure NATO can do much more than that with the long border they have with Ukraine.

Russia invaded with its entire Ground Force, VDV and Naval Infantry. It attacked Kiyv with the express purpose of instituting regime change as stated by Putin in his address. The formations were understaffed because conscripts couldn't be used legally but even so mobilization would give Ukraine time and excuse to mobilize which it did after invasion began
You are contradicting yourself, you can't call it the "entire ground force" and at the same time call it understaffed, if it's "understaffed" then it's not the "enitre ground force" they used just 200k soldiers in the invasion instead of 500k or 600k. Legality is not an issue, Putin is not just some random guy in Russia, he is the president. he and his party determine what's legal and what isn't.

And regarding the negotiations, Russia was demanding negotiations for a neutral Ukraine not just after the war began but even before the start of the war, did you forget it or something? Few months before the war began every day the Russians would demand Ukraine and the west to meet with the Russians and sign a deal that guarantess Ukrainian neutrality, they demanded this kind of a deal to the very last day before the war started.

The forces that contributes most to the survival of SAR were - ironically - the western intervention forces and Kurds. The Peshmerga bore the brunt of fighting in the pivotal and most important battle over Mosul a (2m+ metro) and ISIL's main support centre. Without that nothing else would play out in the remaining territory of Syria as it did.

I said Russia helped turn the tide of war against FSA/AlQaeda, I never mentioned ISIS.

FSA is Jaish Al-Islam, Ahrar Al-Sham, the Southern front etc.. AlQaeda called themselves Alnusra front. The US and the Kurds didn't help in any way in defeating these groups, if anything the US actually was the main backer of such groups against the Syrian military with ATGMs and MANPADs
The only time the YPG clashed with the FSA was in northwestern Syria in which the Kurds were crushed.
The FSA/AlQaeda existed mainly in Damascus, in Southern Syria and north western Syria, before the Russian airforce intervened the Syrian military was rapidly losing ground in Idlib endangering Latakia & Tartus. If it wasn't for the Russian airforce the Syrian military would have already been finished and Damascus would have been ruled by a Taliban like government.

In any case I only mentioned Syria as an example of the perfomance of the Russian airforce but I feel like this is going quite off topic.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Find this quite related to the Ukrainian conflict.

It seems Finland membership to NATO has been official and ratified by all of its member

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Finland was more or less part of it anyway but being part of the NATO formally is just a wish of mutual destruction in case of conflict. Nuke umbrella is quite a deterrent if you don't use a proxi.
 

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
With Nato directly bordering Russia, now its separation from the west is complete. Now there is little chance of Russia falling in the western camp without a complete makeover in Russian mindset. Now they have to fight Nato influence with everything they got. This is an existential battle now.

All good news for China. Russia has always been a fickle partner. It was always too proud and weary of China to be a true ally. Now I think they are backed against the wall and have no choice but to give up on their pride of being the "big brother" of China in the past. Now they are slowly becoming okay to be the junior brother of China.

With Russia as its strong partner and semi-ally, China will have total security from US naval blockades. Cause Russia with its vast resources can supply any raw material China can want. With Russia's vast coastline, China can easily dock ships in Russia and move resources via land border. This is the best scenario for China.

Now the only problem is to prevent Russia from losing this war. That is the hard part. Ukraine is mobilizing too many forces for Russia to withstand the onslaught. Let's see if Russia can muster enough political courage to mobilize more forces.
CNN reported Ukraine is having ton of problems mobilizing new people.
Also this:
photo_2023-03-31_20-58-04.jpg

All Europe is filled with Ukranians that fleed, Russia got 3 million too.
Mostly quite young people, not only population piramid was the smallest in the 20-25 segment before the war, but also the ones that left the most.
I honestly have my doubts about how much more they can get in manpower.
Also, extremely dumb actions by Zelensky against the main orthodox church is causing big fights inside Ukraine, specially the later decision of expelling Orthodox church from their main places of worship in Kiev for the last 1000 years.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
All Europe is filled with Ukranians that fleed, Russia got 3 million too

The Russians are saying there is 5.5 million refugees from Ukraine and the Donbas region as of last month with apparently 749k being children. It also mentions that Eurostats say that the EU has received 4 million refugees since the start of the war. So it seems like a lot of refugees already moved back since the west part of Ukraine isn’t in any particular imminent danger after the first months.

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Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Russians are saying there is 5.5 million refugees from Ukraine and the Donbas region as of last month with apparently 749k being children. It also mentions that Eurostats say that the EU has received 4 million refugees since the start of the war. So it seems like a lot of refugees already moved back since the west part of Ukraine isn’t in any particular imminent danger after the first months.

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Ive talked to enough refugees. none went back or really thinks to do so.
Ukraine's condition is not good, they are stuck in the 90s soviet collapse. No young people is going back and actually a girl from my gym is doing the papperwork to bring her mum too. Even before the war Ukraine was getting depopulated at an incredibly high pace.
Millions went to do cheap work not only to the "classic" places like Germany but also places like Poland. Also a loooot of brain drain, Intel HQ in Gdansk is 80% ukranians unironically, I had a friend working there.
Why would you go to Ukraine to try to get the "western standard of living" when you can simply move here :D

Ofc most of this is anecdotical and not a good statistic, but in general, I think the wind goes into that direction...

UN said 3 millions went to Russia, I trust them more than Russian figures hehe, but yeah, in general a lot.
 
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RottenPanzer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Has anyone tried a census on this Ukrainian refugees if they were interested in returning to their homeland or not in the case where the war has already over?
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Wagner raises flag over the Central Administrative building, signifying that at least legally, Bakhmut is now under Russia. But battles will not be over by far. Intense fighting being reported all over the Central District.

Wagner did some changes over the weekend. All its troops have been pulled out of the pincers and flanks, which probably explains why the progress has stopped there. Russian airborne and LPR troops quickly filled the pincers in defensive posture. Wagner took advantage of a snowstorm to advance despite the terrible conditions, but the snowstorm would have also made it difficult to use drones to spot the Wagner advances. Wagner also advanced and fought in the night, taking advantage of the fact they are armed with night fighting equipment. This is why Prigozhyn raised the flag at night.

Ukrainian POW spilled the beans that there might be an underground tunnel between Bakhmut and Chasov Yar that is being used to supply the troops in Bakhmut.



Russians using incendiaries fired from TOS at Ugledar. Things go ugly and there are many burned and destroyed remnants of Ukrainian vehicles.

 
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