The War in the Ukraine

Overbom said:

Was this supposed to be the grand Russian offensive that everyone was awaiting for?

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It seems to me either the Russians took their shot and utterly failed to make significant progress before the Raputitsa returned or they decided to wait until summer for better readiness.

I have serious doubts on the latter. The former could be a terrifying harbinger of what will happen this summer. Something here continues to baffle for me.

As for the Ukrainian offensive, I have been telling people to watch for when the West will provide fuel trucks. Logistics are key. That's why I've harped on the fuel trucks.

Well, tankies and fellahs:


tankers are included in the March 20th, 2023 package.

First Marder IFV reportedly in Ukraine.

Ukraine has around 56 infantry battalions on the front line against the Wagner salient outside of Bakhmut in just the northern salient alone with 5 infantry battalions in reserve.

14 infantry battalions holding the southern front against Wagner, outside of the city.

30 infantry battalions in Bakhmut itself.

So Ukraine has brought approx. 105 infantry battalions or maximum 52,500 infantrymen against Wagner!

Approx. 35 brigades/equivalents vs the 25+ brigades before.

This is basically the battle of Stalingrad for the war in Ukraine.

Zelensky made it the decisive battle in Front of the US Congress around Dec 2022 and they intend to impede further Russian advance in this direction at all costs.

anzha said:

It seems to me either the Russians took their shot and utterly failed to make significant progress before the Raputitsa returned or they decided to wait until summer for better readiness.

I have serious doubts on the latter. The former could be a terrifying harbinger of what will happen this summer. Something here continues to baffle for me.

As for the Ukrainian offensive, I have been telling people to watch for when the West will provide fuel trucks. Logistics are key. That's why I've harped on the fuel trucks.

Well, tankies and fellahs:

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tankers are included in the March 20th, 2023 package.

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do you have any thoughts on the collapse of Ukrainian lines at Avdiivka?

FairAndUnbiased said:

do you have any thoughts on the collapse of Ukrainian lines at Avdiivka?

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Everyones had eyes on Bakhmut...and still have. Avdiivka will probably fall first. It will remove a lot of stress on Donetsk city, a lot of artillery stikes where coming from there in the past 8 years.

anzha said:

I have serious doubts on the latter. The former could be a terrifying harbinger of what will happen this summer.

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Russia has underperformed, but do you seriously think Ukraine will do any better even if it were given every single bullet and shell in every Western arsenal?

Part of the airstrike at Odessa is to take out a hanger full of drones used to attack Sevastopol. Russian MOD reporting.


Lancet double strike, one an M109 and the other a Krab.


Summary of gains by Russian advances. Confirmed on video from one of the Telegram channels that Russian airborne are also in Bakhmut and is also mentioned here.

anzha said:

It seems to me either the Russians took their shot and utterly failed to make significant progress before the Raputitsa returned or they decided to wait until summer for better readiness.

I have serious doubts on the latter. The former could be a terrifying harbinger of what will happen this summer. Something here continues to baffle for me.

As for the Ukrainian offensive, I have been telling people to watch for when the West will provide fuel trucks. Logistics are key. That's why I've harped on the fuel trucks.

Well, tankies and fellahs:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

tankers are included in the March 20th, 2023 package.

Click to expand...

Also notable:

• Demolition munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing;
• Mine clearing equipment

Stuff you'd only need for an offensive.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Russia has underperformed, but do you seriously think Ukraine will do any better even if it were given every single bullet and shell in every Western arsenal?

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I don't think Russian Army under peformed. They simply did not have enough manpower to defeat Ukraine who had 1 million men while Russia had 200k. Russian Air force underperformed by failing to achieve air superiority and thus Russian Army had to fight alone similar to WW2 like fights. If Russian Air Force was able to achieve complete air superiority similar to Iraq War, then it would have been a much easier battle.

Ukraine surprised Russia by being a cohesive and motivated force that didn't collapse just cause Russia invaded, that was the biggest blunder for Russia. Because on paper, Ukraine had a huge tank, Artillery and Air defense arsenal from Soviet times. That on paper items became properly used in reality.

Now whether Russia can bounce back will depend entirely on if they can mobilize their own 1 million plus men army. If not then its game over.

This video has footage and drone clips inside the Azom plant as taken by Wagner. Took Wagner two weeks to do what the Russian armed forces two months to do at Azovstal.