The War in the Ukraine

O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
plawolf said:
Bakhmut might turn out to be a grand strategic deception by Ukraine to buy time. Russia might think they are grinding the AFU down in Bakhmut, but the reality might be that the grunts they are mowing down like grass there are just press ganged locals, Russian speakers and other ‘undesirables’ being fed into the grinder eagerly by the Ukrainians while they quietly build up their strengths with western arms elsewhere, thereby achieving two objectives in one go.
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Dunno why this would be a surprise to anyone.

"Optimising" your population means that the "undesirables" need to be disposed in a "moral" way. Whats better than throwing them into the meat grinder? Story as old as time itself.

In addition, that Ukraine is buying time for itself isn't a revelation, anyone with an above average strategic vision would tell you the same. It is well known that NATO has been training and equipping Ukrainian units in preparation for Ukraine's offensive (summer?).

Ukraine's big play here is to wait for these units to become combat ready, achieve sufficient success in the offensive to prove to its Western backers that Ukraine is worth investing more resources and drag the war further more. With more time passed, Western MIC becomes mobilised and thus Ukraine will increasingly get more supplies and better equipment in larger quantities.

From day 1 of the war, this has been Ukraine plan, and it will continue to be for the foreseeable future.

But anyway, lets talk about the imminent collapse of the Bakhmut front and how Russia will advance 5km for another couple of months and how many gains Russia is making lol
 
delta115

delta115

Junior Member
Registered Member
plawolf said:
Foreign legion, Poles and ethnic Hungarians would all fall under expendable forces. Also, you cannot only use disposable troops, you will need some elites to maintain disciple and to hold the line else it would be too obvious to fool the Russians and the line would collapse too easily when pressed.

The Russians seems happy so milk Bakhmut for every last drop of Ukrainian blood, but it’s costing them a lot of time. Sure, the weather is not conductive to offensive operations, so it’s not like it’s really changing their timetables. But if they are expecting a depleted and exhausted AFU for when they do launch their summer offensive, they might be caught out again if they instead encounter a full NATO spec Ukrainian army waiting for them, or even launching their own offensive(s) first.
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Seem like both side are wait for each other to make a move first.

Russia press in Bakhmut, but doesn't seem too hard or in a hurry and digging in around their contact line. Meanwhile, Ukraine are going all out psy-ops about losing manpower for counter offensive to bait Russia to attack first. So, far. Russia didn't take a bet yet (Probably because they might even do the same thing).
 
Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
plawolf said:
One interesting recent revelation from the frontline at Bakhmut that could have profound broader strategic implications is that the Russians are reporting that the documents recovered from dead Ukrainian troops were overwhelmingly from the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine. With this last piece of the puzzle, a lot of previously confusing aspects of the war, as such people getting snatched off the streets and press ganged into service, now starts to make a lot more sense.

Bakhmut might turn out to be a grand strategic deception by Ukraine to buy time. Russia might think they are grinding the AFU down in Bakhmut, but the reality might be that the grunts they are mowing down like grass there are just press ganged locals, Russian speakers and other ‘undesirables’ being fed into the grinder eagerly by the Ukrainians while they quietly build up their strengths with western arms elsewhere, thereby achieving two objectives in one go.
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Yes, this is very tragic indeed. I would also like to add that the Russians have underestimated the cynical nature of the Ukrainian regime, and the deep influence of power of Ukrainian nationalism. This is not pleasant news to hear, but the war has been exposing these things.

Many Russian-speaking Ukrainians outside of the Donbass regions have not greeted the Russian invading troops as liberators. Half of the Zaporozhye inhabitants who turned up to vote, voted against joining the Russian Federation. When Russian troops first entered into Kharkov, many of the locals resisted them. A number of Russian-speaking Ukrainians abroad have also condemned and called for hate on Russia for the ongoing war.

Those Ukrainian press-ganged troops, no matter how their pitiful their circumstances, can be just as stubborn as the Ukrainian radicals. I've seen a video where there were 2 Ukrainian press-ganged conscripts, an elderly man and a young man. Both were caught in a foxhole by a Wagner soldier approaching from behind. They were urged to lay down their arms and surrender. The young man was caught unarmed, but the old man still had his rifle. Both refused to surrender and were yelling something at the Wagner soldier. The Wagner soldier even tried to grab the rifle from the old man, but he refused to let go. Then, they were promptly gunned down. This is a war, so shit like this happens.
 
sheogorath

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Seems an Ukranian Tu-141 hit few residential houses in Kireevski, there are reports of a dead person and several wounded

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639987010159931394

The Ukranians seems to have managed to attach a Starlink dish to a drone. This one claimed to be captured by the Russians after being jammed
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639759396270997505

Seems the officer in charge of the offensives in Ugledar and Zaporizhia has been removed from command
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640093097454362626

T-62M were spotted on the move but also a bunch of T-90M
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1640039884466315267


Seems the JDAMski kit is being massproduced and getting used all along the frontline
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1639280767602683904
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
plawolf said:
Foreign legion, Poles and ethnic Hungarians would all fall under expendable forces. Also, you cannot only use disposable troops, you will need some elites to maintain disciple and to hold the line else it would be too obvious to fool the Russians and the line would collapse too easily when pressed.

The Russians seems happy so milk Bakhmut for every last drop of Ukrainian blood, but it’s costing them a lot of time. Sure, the weather is not conductive to offensive operations, so it’s not like it’s really changing their timetables. But if they are expecting a depleted and exhausted AFU for when they do launch their summer offensive, they might be caught out again if they instead encounter a full NATO spec Ukrainian army waiting for them, or even launching their own offensive(s) first.
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Russian speaking doesn't mean much. After all both Zelensky and Zaluzny are Russian speakers too. Zaluzny studied under Gerasimov when they were both in the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

I don't look at the blood but altogether the loss of armored units including APCs and artillery units especially MLRS, howitzers and SPGs. Without the artillery support any offensive is useless. Any offensive without artillery support will result in death in a fire bag. For this, the Russians need to pick off Ukrainian artillery all across the front through fixing and grinding operations. The Ukrainians need to get more artillery ammunition and pieces, not tanks unless they plan using tanks these way.

The city fighting in Bakhmut is for spectacle. What's important is the high ground taken in the northwest and southwest of Bakhmut. That opens up artillery lines right past Chasov Yar and into Konstantinovka.

Just keep in mind it's all about artillery, artillery and artillery.
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sardaukar20 said:
Yes, this is very tragic indeed. I would also like to add that the Russians have underestimated the cynical nature of the Ukrainian regime, and the deep influence of power of Ukrainian nationalism. This is not pleasant news to hear, but the war has been exposing these things.

Many Russian-speaking Ukrainians outside of the Donbass regions have not greeted the Russian invading troops as liberators. Half of the Zaporozhye inhabitants who turned up to vote, voted against joining the Russian Federation. When Russian troops first entered into Kharkov, many of the locals resisted them. A number of Russian-speaking Ukrainians abroad have also condemned and called for hate on Russia for the ongoing war.

Those Ukrainian press-ganged troops, no matter how their pitiful their circumstances, can be just as stubborn as the Ukrainian radicals. I've seen a video where there were 2 Ukrainian press-ganged conscripts, an elderly man and a young man. Both were caught in a foxhole by a Wagner soldier approaching from behind. They were urged to lay down their arms and surrender. The young man was caught unarmed, but the old man still had his rifle. Both refused to surrender and were yelling something at the Wagner soldier. The Wagner soldier even tried to grab the rifle from the old man, but he refused to let go. Then, they were promptly gunned down. This is a war, so shit like this happens.
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I recall a young man and an old man prisoner that was standing next to Prigozhin while Prigozhin was saying that his forces were increasingly facing grandpas and grandsons. I think the old man was like 54 and the young man was 20, which is fair to say, draftable age. But the way he looks with his baby face he could have been five years younger.

As for the drafting - kidnap in a van operations they seem prevalent in areas like Odessa, Kyiv and Kharkiv.
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Should add the Georgian Legion among those that are still in Bakhmut.

Anyway, Chechens showing off their latest gear, off road vehicles and luxury trenches.


Ukrainian FPV drone shot down by gunfire caught in video. This is in the Zaporzhyzhia region. It seems possible to take down drones with gunfire. Recently a Russian attempt at a Kamekaze Mugin 5 drone was taken down with AKs. Two Ukrainian Kamekaze drones, possibly more Mugin 5s, were taken down by two women guards with their AKs at Sevastopol. Both women got medals.


FPV drones are certain to be Chinese than US made. More footage here.

 
S

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
Sad. IF it's Ukrainian tho it would be the 5N63S. There is however a "30N6" using the 5N63S array but software changes to allow use of early 150 km range 48N6 missile, this is S-300PMU-1. I'm curious if Ukraine ever operate or upgrade their S-300 for that capability. The range of this radar is about 200 km probably instrumented range, range agaist fighter aircraft is 130 Km similar as the earliest 5N63 for S-300PT.

The "real" 30N6 was from S-300PMU-2 or S-300PM it has different array and longer range of about 300 Km.

Being able to nick one and especially if it's still active tho is a testament of ESM's or EW system as This 12000 Elements phased array have very low sidelobe, about -40.7 dB. For one to detect its sidelobe would require some high gain antenna or a tuned receiver with good sensitivity (e.g -95 dB or 100 dB). One can try mainlobe but that's only detectable when you are directly painted by it, in other words a dueling situation. It also make jamming difficult and demanding.

Had Ukraine possess 48N6, it can kill both the missile and aircraft assuming older 110 Km range Kh-31P. the Kh-31PM however can engage from 250 km. The Russians maybe saturate all the radar's 6 target channels prior to attack.
 
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