The War in the Ukraine

FairAndUnbiased said:

do you have any thoughts on the collapse of Ukrainian lines at Avdiivka?

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Has it truly collapsed yet? Do we have photographic evidence of Russian troops pushed through the fortress town yet? Or at least geolocated pictures showing Avdiivka encircled? I have not seen it yet[*]. When we see that sort of evidence and lots of proof of new Ukrainian dead and/or prisoners, then I'd be willing to say it has collapsed.

Even then, we need to be certain we are seeing a true collapse even then? Sievierodonetsk was lost, but no collapse took place. Lysychansk was lost, but, again, still no collapse. Amazingly, Soledar was taken and the Ukrainians still didn't collapse.

Soledar fell in January and two months later, the Russians have moved a whole 6 to 8 km forward. Avdviika has been on the frontline of the war since 2014. Right now, during the Raputitsa, Ukrainian single meters are Iraqi kilometers, if not more.

When I stopped being able to participate daily in the thread - or even weekly - back in January/February, Bakmut was collapsing per Russian sources. And, yet, here we are.

I'd be very, very cautious about claiming something has completely collapsed until it is definitive.

*. Edit here: doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Just that I have not seen it.

anzha said:

Has it truly collapsed yet? Do we have photographic evidence of Russian troops pushed through the fortress town yet? Or at least geolocated pictures showing Avdiivka encircled? I have not seen it yet[*]. When we see that sort of evidence and lots of proof of new Ukrainian dead and/or prisoners, then I'd be willing to say it has collapsed.

Even then, we need to be certain we are seeing a true collapse even then? Sievierodonetsk was lost, but no collapse took place. Lysychansk was lost, but, again, still no collapse. Amazingly, Soledar was taken and the Ukrainians still didn't collapse.

Soledar fell in January and two months later, the Russians have moved a whole 6 to 8 km forward. Avdviika has been on the frontline of the war since 2014. Right now, during the Raputitsa, Ukrainian single meters are Iraqi kilometers, if not more.

When I stopped being able to participate daily in the thread - or even weekly - back in January/February, Bakmut was collapsing per Russian sources. And, yet, here we are.

I'd be very, very cautious about claiming something has completely collapsed until it is definitive.

*. Edit here: doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Just that I have not seen it.

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on the other hand, the collapse in 2015 during the battle of Debaltseve is indicative of what could happen: abandoning positions in ambulances, abandoning heavy equipment, and leaving hundreds to be captured.

anzha said:

Has it truly collapsed yet? Do we have photographic evidence of Russian troops pushed through the fortress town yet? Or at least geolocated pictures showing Avdiivka encircled? I have not seen it yet[*]. When we see that sort of evidence and lots of proof of new Ukrainian dead and/or prisoners, then I'd be willing to say it has collapsed.

Even then, we need to be certain we are seeing a true collapse even then? Sievierodonetsk was lost, but no collapse took place. Lysychansk was lost, but, again, still no collapse. Amazingly, Soledar was taken and the Ukrainians still didn't collapse.

Soledar fell in January and two months later, the Russians have moved a whole 6 to 8 km forward. Avdviika has been on the frontline of the war since 2014. Right now, during the Raputitsa, Ukrainian single meters are Iraqi kilometers, if not more.

When I stopped being able to participate daily in the thread - or even weekly - back in January/February, Bakmut was collapsing per Russian sources. And, yet, here we are.

I'd be very, very cautious about claiming something has completely collapsed until it is definitive.

*. Edit here: doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Just that I have not seen it.

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Well said.

Avdiivka will be like Bakhmut where we're going to have reports of its imminent collapse that will never come. I've actually had a change of mind and now think Bakhmut will not be taken before Ukraine's western equipped offensive. I think it's going to be a two front offensive one in Zapo area and the east just like Kherson and Kharkiv oblast only this time Ukraine will have NATO train/fully geared troops and armored mechanized units.

This could actually be a very scary moment because if Russia starts losing and getting pushed back fast Putin may finally after over a year of threats follow through.

anzha said:

Has it truly collapsed yet? Do we have photographic evidence of Russian troops pushed through the fortress town yet? Or at least geolocated pictures showing Avdiivka encircled? I have not seen it yet[*]. When we see that sort of evidence and lots of proof of new Ukrainian dead and/or prisoners, then I'd be willing to say it has collapsed.

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The Russians cut the access to the railroad at Avdiivka just like they did to Bakhmut. It is a matter of time really.
There is a single paved road, besides the railroad, at Avdiivka to the west. But there are claims that area is under Russian fire control. The only other options are dirt roads. It might take a long time for it to be captured, but unless Ukraine breaks the siege, it will fall sooner or later.

anzha said:

Soledar fell in January and two months later, the Russians have moved a whole 6 to 8 km forward. Avdviika has been on the frontline of the war since 2014. Right now, during the Raputitsa, Ukrainian single meters are Iraqi kilometers, if not more.

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Exactly. Ukraine cannot properly supply Avdiivka through the muddy dirt roads they still control while the Russians have de facto control of the M-04 highway to the south.

SolarWarden said:

Avdiivka will be like Bakhmut where we're going to have reports of its imminent collapse that will never come. I've actually had a change of mind and now think Bakhmut will not be taken before Ukraine's western equipped offensive. I think it's going to be a two front offensive one in Zapo area and the east just like Kherson and Kharkiv oblast only this time Ukraine will have NATO train/fully geared troops and armored mechanized units.

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There is nothing magical about the "Western" equipment they supplied Ukraine with. The IFVs are better on paper than what they had when the conflict started, but they are still vulnerable to 30mm autocannons and infantry weapons like the RPG-7. On paper something like the Marder has more armor than a BMP-3, but it has less firepower. Even the Marder 1A3 with upgraded armor only gives extra armor in the front. It is still vulnerable to 30mm autocannons in the sides and back.

gelgoog said:

There is nothing magical about the "Western" equipment they supplied Ukraine with. The IFVs are better on paper than what they had when the conflict started, but they are still vulnerable to 30mm autocannons and infantry weapons like the RPG-7. On paper something like the Marder has more armor than a BMP-3, but it has less firepower. Even the Marder 1A3 with upgraded armor only gives extra armor in the front. It is still vulnerable to 30mm autocannons in the sides and back.

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I have said this many times to family members that believe in western wunderwaffe theory.
Its quite simple on average steel is steel and gunpowder is gunpowder. If the west offers more steel then Russia will need to increase gunpowder and vice versa.

One interesting recent revelation from the frontline at Bakhmut that could have profound broader strategic implications is that the Russians are reporting that the documents recovered from dead Ukrainian troops were overwhelmingly from the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine. With this last piece of the puzzle, a lot of previously confusing aspects of the war, as such people getting snatched off the streets and press ganged into service, now starts to make a lot more sense.

Bakhmut might turn out to be a grand strategic deception by Ukraine to buy time. Russia might think they are grinding the AFU down in Bakhmut, but the reality might be that the grunts they are mowing down like grass there are just press ganged locals, Russian speakers and other ‘undesirables’ being fed into the grinder eagerly by the Ukrainians while they quietly build up their strengths with western arms elsewhere, thereby achieving two objectives in one go.

plawolf said:

One interesting recent revelation from the frontline at Bakhmut that could have profound broader strategic implications is that the Russians are reporting that the documents recovered from dead Ukrainian troops were overwhelmingly from the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine. With this last piece of the puzzle, a lot of previously confusing aspects of the war, as such people getting snatched off the streets and press ganged into service, now starts to make a lot more sense.

Bakhmut might turn out to be a grand strategic deception by Ukraine to buy time. Russia might think they are grinding the AFU down in Bakhmut, but the reality might be that the grunts they are mowing down like grass there are just press ganged locals, Russian speakers and other ‘undesirables’ being fed into the grinder eagerly by the Ukrainians while they quietly build up their strengths with western arms elsewhere, thereby achieving two objectives in one go.

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Not sure about this. In the Wagner mini trophy room there's a huge assortment of unit crests, flags and even medals they collected from the dead. Not going to post the Telegram link here as it may violate forum rules. There's photos of medals collected that were NATO medals awarded to participants in the so called 'peace keeping' exercises in the now former Yugoslavia.

During the so called 'retreat' from Soledar, which Zelensky didn't order, the Poles stationed there weren't informed about it when their Ukrainian brethren started retreating on their own Accord. They involuntarily had to fight a rear guard action.

Another example is the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade that's considered elite, and itself had a fabled history in WW2. The 128th consisted mainly of Transcarpithians, which are ethnic Hungarians. The 128th was one of those units that fell into the so called 'Penis of Kherson' fire bag. Months later the unit was one of five brigades defending Soledar when it was overrun. Google 'Transcarpithia Cemetery' to see images of Ukrainian flags all over the graves. Hungarian PM had complained in public about the large numbers of ethnic Hungarians getting killed.

In Bakhmut, many units have been moved out but their policy of rotation is that if a unit is left with only 30 percent of its personnel it is withdrawn from the conflict, a lesson taken from earlier in the conflict where some brigades were completely wiped out. It's true that who replaced them were Territorial Defence Units which we understand are cannon fodder.

Still when Ukraine recently launched probing attacks on the Zaporzhyzhia front, the units were said to be from newly created units, meaning lack of battle experience.

plawolf said:

One interesting recent revelation from the frontline at Bakhmut that could have profound broader strategic implications is that the Russians are reporting that the documents recovered from dead Ukrainian troops were overwhelmingly from the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine.

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Source ?

Stierlitz said:

Source ?

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Tam said:

Not sure about this. In the Wagner mini trophy room there's a huge assortment of unit crests, flags and even medals they collected from the dead. Not going to post the Telegram link here as it may violate forum rules. There's photos of medals collected that were NATO medals awarded to participants in the so called 'peace keeping' exercises in the now former Yugoslavia.

During the so called 'retreat' from Soledar, which Zelensky didn't order, the Poles stationed there weren't informed about it when their Ukrainian brethren started retreating on their own Accord. They involuntarily had to fight a rear guard action.

Another example is the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade that's considered elite, and itself had a fabled history in WW2. The 128th consisted mainly of Transcarpithians, which are ethnic Hungarians. The 128th was one of those units that fell into the so called 'Penis of Kherson' fire bag. Months later the unit was one of five brigades defending Soledar when it was overrun. Google 'Transcarpithia Cemetery' to see images of Ukrainian flags all over the graves. Hungarian PM had complained in public about the large numbers of ethnic Hungarians getting killed.

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Foreign legion, Poles and ethnic Hungarians would all fall under expendable forces. Also, you cannot only use disposable troops, you will need some elites to maintain disciple and to hold the line else it would be too obvious to fool the Russians and the line would collapse too easily when pressed.

The Russians seems happy so milk Bakhmut for every last drop of Ukrainian blood, but it’s costing them a lot of time. Sure, the weather is not conductive to offensive operations, so it’s not like it’s really changing their timetables. But if they are expecting a depleted and exhausted AFU for when they do launch their summer offensive, they might be caught out again if they instead encounter a full NATO spec Ukrainian army waiting for them, or even launching their own offensive(s) first.