The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
View attachment 108676
Rybar reckon judging by AFU's troop concentration around Bakhmut they may be planning to launch a counterattack to relieve the city.

If this goes down then perhaps Russia would have successfully baited out remaining AFU mobile reserves.
If they are doing it it's do or die for both sides. 8 brigades is about 32 000 mens if they are full manned,

That counter attack is more or less the spring offensive. It will be harder if AFU is doing it before the soil become firm.
 

Tam

Brigadier
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Lancet from the Far East Marines of the 336th says hello to an M777 howitzer.

Lancet, likely from the same Marines group, also say hello to an M109 howitzer. Both should be in the Ugledar area.

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Those tall buildings give the Ukrainians a strong sight advantage in Ugledar and the terrain ahead is low and flat, making it a killing field. They need to be reduced to rubble before it can be attacked again. Russian air strikes are now dropping FAB like in Adviivka, mainly directed at ammo depots.

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ATGM Kornet hit against a Ukrainian fortification that has been a great cause of inconvenience to the Russian Marines.

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Sudden surge of clips in Ugledar on this telegram channel. TOS of the V Group doing urban rearrangement in Ugledar.

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Atomicfrog

Major
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According to the source below, it appears that a JDAM was used for the first time by Ukraine against Russian positions:
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They need to lobe it quite fast for their plane to not be intercepted. If they are using that tactic, Interceptors with LR missiles need to be 24h in the sky over Crimea and Belarus. In any case, for Ukrainian to be able to pull that off, VKS is still some kind of joke.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
If they are doing it it's do or die for both sides. 8 brigades is about 32 000 mens if they are full manned,

That counter attack is more or less the spring offensive. It will be harder if AFU is doing it before the soil become firm.
There wouldn't be anyone left at Bakhmut for them to relieve if they wait for the ground to firm up before launching a counterattack.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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I guess this is supposed to be the next Wonderwaffle. Its range is going to be limited because they cannot operate at high altitude. The whole point of these glide bombs is to, well, glide. Which they cannot do if they are dropped from low altitude. If they try to operate at high altitude they will just get shot down by Russian AD or interceptors. They are better off just using regular artillery at that point.
This seems like a fail move to me. Especially because it relies on retro-fitting aircraft that Ukraine has in limited numbers to begin with.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
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There wouldn't be anyone left at Bakhmut for them to relieve if they wait for the ground to firm up before launching a counterattack.
Yep, do or die... It will be interesting to see if the encirclement is well anchored with static support or it's just herding the conscript inside Bakhmut with small units.

Quite curious about the vehicules composition of these mechanized units. We have seen quite a lot of Ukrainian BMP in the east lately, they where quite rarer arround Kherson last summer where wheeled apc was more common on offensives. Maybe it's just because of the soft soil presently.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) states that it has blocked 26 telegram channels in which the actual places of distribution of military summonses were in Ukraine were reported. In total, more than 400 000 users subscribed to them. Administrators of public sites face 10 years in prison.

SBU blocks 26 Telegram channels that helped men evade mobilization

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) announced that it blocked 26 Telegram channels that aided men of military age in evading mobilization.

The release stated that these channels provided information about the whereabouts of military enlistment officers in Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Chernivtsi, Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa Oblasts, so that men could avoid receiving enlistment summons.

These channels relied on users to submit sightings of military enlistment officers, which they shared online.

Six administrators were identified and notified of suspicion of criminal activity, the SBU said. If convicted they can face up to 10 years in prison.

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Temstar

Brigadier
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Dmitry Kotsyubaylo, CO of 1st Mechanized Battalion DaVinci Wolves, 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade is KIA.

But most curiously look at where 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade is located:
Capture.JPG

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Seems like he shouldn't be that close to the front. Would be curious to know how he died. Battalion HQ got picked up by UAV and then flattened with artillery or airstrike perhaps?
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
I guess this is supposed to be the next Wonderwaffle. Its range is going to be limited because they cannot operate at high altitude. The whole point of these glide bombs is to, well, glide. Which they cannot do if they are dropped from low altitude. If they try to operate at high altitude they will just get shot down by Russian AD or interceptors. They are better off just using regular artillery at that point.
This seems like a fail move to me. Especially because it relies on retro-fitting aircraft that Ukraine has in limited numbers to begin with.
A JDAM launched in toss mode at low altitudes (<3,000 meters) in tests demonstrated a range of 9 km. A JDAM-ER can be launched at medium altitudes (>3000 meters to <9000 meters) and still could have a range greater than 35 km. The maximum range intended by the JDAM-ER is through launches from high altitudes (>9,000 meters) which is what you are referring to, sources indicate it can be launched from up to 12,000 meters.
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