The War in the Ukraine

Tam said:

That scheme of holding large amounts of land via drone teams alone is collapsing. We are seeing many days in this month where the the Russians are capturing anywhere from 20 to 60 square kilometer of area per day.

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What is causing a disruption in large areas of the front line defended by drones is just the reason you yourself said later:

Tam said:

One thing I don't see mentioned but is apparent in many videos is that for a while now, the Russians have become very good in hunting down Ukrainian drone teams, referred to as UAV control points, sometimes as UAV checkpoints or aircraft traffic controllers as a code name. Sometimes it's an FPV drone on that position, a Krasnopol on the next, general artillery shelling, an MLRS or TOS attack, even indirect fire from tanks on closed positions. Since both sides tend to mirror each other, expect the Ukrainians to do the same. Except the Russians have the advantage of sheer scale, volume and punch. We have seen FABs and Gerans drones used on Ukrainian UAV control positions. It's really amazing how far legacy equipment can really go when you have drones spotting for them.

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secretciaagent said:

Good post!
I also think the focus on FPV drones is somewhat missing the forest for the trees. What really changed ground war in the Ukrainian context is the widespread use of spotter drones making it more or less impossible to use large columns of armored vehicles. It is only when your forces are completely atomized for fear of accurate artillery fire that FPV drones can suddenly stop a whole attack, resupply mission etc.

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One of the most common tactics for using FPV drones is the classic strike, which involves identifying a target with a reconnaissance system and then using an FPV drone to carry out the strike with precision. This approach allows for targeting armored vehicles, fortified positions, and strategic elements on the battlefield.

Another widely used method is free-hunting, in which FPV drones are launched directly against previously identified targets without the need for real-time guidance, allowing for rapid and coordinated attacks.

In fact, the tactical use of FPVs has completely changed the dynamics of combat, with consequences for infantry (reconnaissance and attack), armor (reconnaissance and attack), artillery (reconnaissance), and even engineering (reconnaissance and defense of logistics roads).

Sinnavuuty said:

One of the most common tactics for using FPV drones is the classic strike, which involves identifying a target with a reconnaissance system and then using an FPV drone to carry out the strike with precision. This approach allows for targeting armored vehicles, fortified positions, and strategic elements on the battlefield.

Another widely used method is free-hunting, in which FPV drones are launched directly against previously identified targets without the need for real-time guidance, allowing for rapid and coordinated attacks.

In fact, the tactical use of FPVs has completely changed the dynamics of combat, with consequences for infantry (reconnaissance and attack), armor (reconnaissance and attack), artillery (reconnaissance), and even engineering (reconnaissance and defense of logistics roads).

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FPV drones are also a massive change yes, I didn't mean to imply otherwise. I just think that widespread use of spotter drones is what set the scene for FPV drones to be as effective as they are, and if a military were to buy a bunch of FPV drones alone they cannot expect the same results as seen in Ukraine.

Footage of strikes by Russian kamikaze drones "Geran" and ballistic missiles Iskander on Kyiv, on the night of May 24. The video also shows the work of the Ukrainian air defense Patriot, made in the United States. As reported by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 245 drones out of 250 were shot down. But Ukrainian journalist and video blogger Anatoly Shariy published a video recording 20 strikes by Geran drones, shown in an accelerated version. The strikes by Geran drones were aimed primarily at the Antonov plant, where, among other things, UAVs are assembled. A representative of the command of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, reported that Russia had modernized the Iskander missiles, now the Patriot air defense cannot effectively work against them. According to him, the Iskander missiles now fire off radar decoys and attack the target along a quasi-ballistic trajectory. That is, now the missile maneuvers and does not approach the target in a straight line. As a result, Patriot air defense systems cannot effectively calculate the missile's interception point.

secretciaagent said:

FPV drones are also a massive change yes, I didn't mean to imply otherwise. I just think that widespread use of spotter drones is what set the scene for FPV drones to be as effective as they are, and if a military were to buy a bunch of FPV drones alone they cannot expect the same results as seen in Ukraine.

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For any militia outfit, cheap drones will allow them to stand a far better chance against conventional military. Imagine if the war on terror had to be conducted with insurgents launching fpvs and fiber guided drones over mountain passes to hit convoys rather than rely on jerry rigged IEDs or erratic mortar fire. COIN operations moving forward would become far costlier.

The crux of the issue is the free falling in cost of precision fire, meaning any rebel army should be able to spam them if they are not completely blockaded.

tankphobia said:

For any militia outfit, cheap drones will allow them to stand a far better chance against conventional military. Imagine if the war on terror had to be conducted with insurgents launching fpvs and fiber guided drones over mountain passes to hit convoys rather than rely on jerry rigged IEDs or erratic mortar fire. COIN operations moving forward would become far costlier.

The crux of the issue is the free falling in cost of precision fire, meaning any rebel army should be able to spam them if they are not completely blockaded.

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Something like an Iraq style counter occupation insurgency with fiber guided drones would indeed be a bad time for the occupying force. Very different situation from serious ground warfare in Ukraine though, which I was careful to limit my statements to.

Does anyone know if FPV drones have started showing up in meaningful numbers in the Myanmar, Sudan or Sahel conflicts yet?

Right now, one of the biggest Russian attacks on Ukraine is taking place, after Ukraine attacked Moscow on a large scale with drones.

There are a lot of news, posts and videos, so I will wait for the results.

Footage of a mid-air collision between two Ukrainian, presumably An-196 "Lyuty" drones. The video was filmed in the Lipetsk region of Russia. The "Lyuty" kamikaze drones were developed by the Ukrainian company Ukroboronprom in 2023, we previously wrote about them. The supposed reasons for the collision of the drones are incorrect routing to the target, or automatic maneuvering upon detection of air defense system radiation, which led to the collision.

Surpluswarrior said:

Russia needed to invest in its own MIC. Purchasing Chinese equipment would not have helped that goal.

Lethe argues that the Mistral deal was about rejuvenating Russia's shipbuilding capability, and I've seen that asserted before. The main problem was the geopolitics, which prevented the deal from being completed as intended.

Yet was there not another country Russia could have turned to for rejuvenating its shipbuilding sector?

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Two decades ago, when the Russians started designing their future Navy, China's own naval designs weren't that good. China still was buying diesel submarines and destroyers from Russia or Russian systems for Type 052B.
At which point in the 2010s after modern Chinese ships showed up the Russians have already finished their own naval designs and launched them into the water. After 2014 sanctions on German and Ukrainian engines hit the Russian naval designs, Chinese ships also used licensed naval engine designs from those countries with unknown localization level.

What I think Russia could have bought from China is artillery. Russia invented little in artillery since the collapse of the Soviet Union. They have the Koalitsyia, but they should have better modernized existing artillery as well. Probably purchase of Chinese artillery systems was not done because the change in calibre would be too expensive.