The War in the Ukraine

ougoah said:

Apparently Javelin manufacturer can't replenish US inventory quick enough and US has send a considerable fraction of its own Javelins.

Russia has now captured intact Javelins that they don't know what to do with. The high rate of Western equipment losses is a given. A huge reason why the West doesn't send any serious military equipment is because they know the Russians may capture them for evaluation, study and determine how best to counter these weapons. The Americans even ripped out an important component in the M777s sent.

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Reading more on the DFCS on the M777, probably it got ripped out because it enables encrypted communication between command post and gun to more precisely position the gun. I don't know anything about cryptography, but I imagine they don't want any software at all in the hands of Russians.

I think the reason more advanced weapons are not being sent are not only because of capture/study reasons, but also training shortcomings, lack of NATO command and control structure, and just simple cost/quantity.

Many of the NATO countries are saying there is nothing left to give because they are giving reserve equipment (ie. Dutch APC's without guns, Germany giving DDR-era stocks). Any more giveaways, and you are basically stripping active units of in-service equipment. As mentioned by others, any NATO military that isn't the USA doesn't have huge standing armies. They are already stretched pretty thin as it is.

These companies are not set up for continuous war production, just batch to batch as they win contracts. With all the issues with logistics and staffing going on right now, it's not easy to "just make more" and of course the question of who's paying for it? (maybe the 40B aid bill)

Hi by the way anybody can answer how long this war will linger on or I should ask when putin run out of his patience and start systematic carpet bombing kind of heavy inflected casualties as my understanding is Russia still try to restrain itself not to use much brutal force
thank you

We are going way out of topic with Russia in NATO.

But this hypothetical shows how foolishly US runs their diplomacy and foreign policy. They claim China is their bigger threat. Logically, you would think they would try to make Russia an ally but instead they've used Ukraine to bring Russia and China closer. Russia an enemy would be the worst case scenario for China in my opinion. They would be completely surrounded by US allies and be deprived of a rich natural resource exporter in terms of Russia.

I think Nixon was probably the last smart president US had when it came to foreign policy. He always saw the bigger long-term picture.

defenceman said:

Hi by the way anybody can answer how long this war will linger on or I should ask when putin run out of his patience and start systematic carpet bombing kind of heavy inflected casualties as my understanding is Russia still try to restrain itself not to use much brutal force
thank you

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I think such a judgement nobody can make.

One thing is for sure:
The Special Military Operation is going to be fully completed, that is denazification of the Ukraine and the recognition of LNR and DPR.

The pocket in Severodonetsk is forming up quickly than I anticipated. It could the be the news of "evacuees" (keep it clean!) in Mariupol is having a demoralizing effect elsewhere cause Ukraine lines are collapsing fast in the East. Good thing Elon provided them with internet access so they can see things in real-time.

Russian telegram channels are claiming the Su-57 has been used to strike targets in Ukraine

sheogorath said:

Russian telegram channels are claiming the Su-57 has been used to strike targets in Ukraine

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It's on TASS


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Clearly it's gaining practice with Kh-69's. Basically Russia's own JASSM.

4Runner said:

When the first evacuation corridor was announced, I said there might be undertable deals. And I was wondering if putin would touch base with Xi on any of those deals. Hence unlimited my ars. If this speculation turns out to be true, putin cannot be trusted, period.

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How does AZOVSTAL "evacuation" have anything to do with Xi? Big fish or not they are food of Putin.

I already predict tomorrow's ISW "summary" of "events":

1. Brave Azovstal defenders seize Russian transport vehicles and drive deep into DPR to tie up Russian legal resources.

2. UAF positions in Severodonetsk are perfectly placed to hit targets with accuracy despite Russian jamming, as they're surrounded and shooting anywhere is OK.

3. Russia is retreating further west of Izyum.

According to Lt. general Hertling, Putin is micromanaging the Russian war effort, despite his lack of military training and making the already bad situation worse: