"Okay team, let's take a look at a brain-dead talking point that's been making the rounds lately. Namely, that regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine that Russia's strategic position will worsen due to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO.
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The Swedish Army is capable of forming a grand total of two brigades right now. This is the equivalent of Latvia or Estonia and is insufficient to even secure the country in the event of a war, let along attack anyone.
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Sweden has 71 fighters, all older Saab 39 Gripens. Finland has 55 fighters (F-18s), with 64 new F-35s on order to replace them.
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The Finnish Army can put together six brigades capable of offensive combat operations, and another six territorial defense brigades for security purposes.
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I've seen people say that Finland has the ability to mobilize something like 400,000 reservists, but these would be light infantry with no supporting arms.
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By comparison, pre-war Ukraine had no fewer than fifty-one brigades between its army and paramilitary National Guard, plus another twenty-five territorial defense brigades.
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As such Russia's postwar strategic situation in the event of victory in Ukraine but Finland and Sweden joining NATO would be the equivalent of replacing a massive, well-armed enemy to its south with two more NATO Baltic states."