Russia's air defenses in the cities of Donetsk, Makiivka, Mariupol Ilovaisk and elsewhere are firing wildly into the air. There are rumors, especially around Mariupol, that Ukraine is using a new weapon:
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Regular forces are mounting some tactical offensives elsewhere, one at Ugledar which is already messy; Kremennaya where they have pushed back a Ukrainian offensive around the forests, around Svatovo and Kupyansk where the Russians have captured a good position. Fighting is still going on around Adviika and Marinka, and the Chechens are heavily involved around Spirne and Bilhorivka. Russian airborne and artillery appear to be in support of Wagner around Bakhmut and the LPR has forces in that area despite Wagner trying to make or take credit on that front of their own.
Massing is around the south and the north.
I feel that most actions are currently defense-offense meant to draw out Ukrainian reserves out into the front and bombard them, as opposed to taking large amounts of territory that can lead you to being vulnerable to counterattacks and inflict large casualties. Another thing at play is that this reminds me a bit of Nokia's product strategy where they throw everything at the wall then concentrate on what sticks. So far the pincer around Bakhmut is sticking and so are the offensives around the Kremennaya to Kupyansk area.
Wagner doesn't produce much videos and in general, they are in social media lockdown. Whatever they release goes through official channels and whenever there's a big capture, Prigozhyn needs to announce it personally to get credit. However there are non Wagner sourced videos coming out of Bakhmut that indicates other Russian units are there. Russian Aerospace tends to be heavily shut down too as social media is concerned but the LPR isn't.
I am guessing this video is towards the southern pincer of Bakhmut where there is some forest area and low area. That looks like mortar fire and the spotter is a quadcopter so it's a good indication the Russian position is near this forest, possibly on a higher ground.
Unrelated. Russian O group ATGM takes out a Ukrainian BTR-80.
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The problem with that defense-offense is that the front remains the same lenght... and all the bridges supporting the front remains functionals. RIght now, Russia base their ''offensive'' on attrition... attrition hurt both sides usualy. Don't know if it will be enough. Ukraine fighting with money and equipment from other nations, Russia is fighting with his.
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it's not a bad deal actually. the afghan guys get a well paying job, russia get a bunch of fighters with some experience whom they also do not dread losing, iran likely gets paid as an intermediary, and also gets rid of some refugees, and even the taliban would be happy that these guys would go to war in Europe and likely never come back.
in fact, why wouldn't the US do the same thing for Ukraine, employ fighters from the middle east, bring them to Ukraine and fight the Russians.
russia is banking on Ukraine's benefactors to run out of either money or patience. previously russia had hoped that a cold winter would bring europe to its knees, that has obviously not transpired, so now russia's best hope is likely to do a good job defeating the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. if russia withstands Ukrainian offensive with all the western weapons and training provided, then the hope is it will make both the west and zelensky rethink their path forward, knowing that it is impossible to militarily defeat russia in the Donbass. there are reports that russia is building heavy defense around melitopol, sounds to me like it is preparing for a rerun of kursk.
i would not blame russia for holding back its mobilized forces from attacking. it actually makes sense if you think about it. you have all these fresh troops, you dont want to just throw them into offensive actions, which are very demanding, and lose a bunch of them due to inexperience etc. but if you harden them through defensive actions, which are more easily controlled, then at the end of it you might come out with some battle hardened troops against an exhausted enemy.
At first it was hoping for the Ukrainian government to collapse, after that hoping that they would be able to keep the understaffed front intact, after that hoping that they will keep Kherson, Lyman, that Ukraine will bend the knee from infrastructures attacks and now that they will lose support.
Cannot rely on hope to win a war...
Yes if Russia are able to exhaust Ukrainian forces it can be a thing but it look like a lot of their efforts is against Ukrainian conscripts without experiences while Ukrainians veterans are mostly kept in the back. Zelensky will not rethink about anything, he's not paid for that. They have so many conscript pushed on the front that they are maintaining it more or less.
If they are able to pull a Kursk against the Ukrainian spring offensive it would be interesting to watch. We will see if they are able to keep Wagner intact while not providing them ammo and supplies.
The bridge between Chasov Yar to Ivanoske is certainly down, thanks to Wagner. Thus there is no point reinforcing on this route. That leaves only one road, and a small one at that, to reinforce or withdraw from Bakhmut.
This probably why Russia is trying so hard to breakthrough in Zaporozhye/South Donetsk area. More importantly Ugledar is the thinnest part of the whole Russian southern front and so is vulnerable to a Ukrainian offensive. Capturing Ugledar would reduce this risk and allow the Russians to reconnect the Southern Ukrainian railway network with the Donetsk network, improving logistics. If they can achieve this before the Ukrainian offensive, they will be in good shape to provide heavy resistance.
I don't know how true this is, but many posts about it on Twitter.
Ukrainian side saying the same thing. 1st Guards Tank Army may be on the move. Their elements like 2nd guards motor rifle division and 4th guards tank division have been spotted in recent days in Luhansk.
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