The War in the Ukraine

Temstar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628325308347588609

Ukrainian side saying the same thing. 1st Guards Tank Army may be on the move. Their elements like 2nd guards motor rifle division and 4th guards tank division have been spotted in recent days in Luhansk.

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But wasn't the 1st Guards Tank Army the unit that was completely degraded (collapsed) in Kharkiv and wouldn't it take years to rebuild combat capability? What happened?

Sinnavuuty said:

But wasn't the 1st Guards Tank Army the unit that was completely degraded (collapsed) in Kharkiv and wouldn't it take years to rebuild combat capability? What happened?

The War in the Ukraine

Fuels won't aerosol just by firing a missile at them, they just burn. The warhead needs to be designed specifically to atomise a liquid fuel and ignite it at the right time. It's why a call it a lucky shot if it's the case... even a natural gaz tank don't explode even if you shot api bullet...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

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Yes they performed poorly at the start of the war as well as during the Kharkiv offensive. But perhaps they're back to prove themselves.

Someone on Weibo spent a lot of time last weekend to put this Russian unit dispossession together:


That is a lot of Russian troops around Svatove. Besides 1st guards tank army there are also elements of 2nd, 5th, 6th, 35th combined arms army and 11th army corps.

I wonder if true and how large this offensive is. The usual accounts haven't commented much yet

I do expect that if the Russians retake Krasny Lyman and Kupyansk, which were presented as massive losses for Russia back in autumn, they will become "irrelevant little towns only taken for propaganda purposes".

Atomicfrog said:

At first it was hoping for the Ukrainian government to collapse, after that hoping that they would be able to keep the understaffed front intact, after that hoping that they will keep Kherson, Lyman, that Ukraine will bend the knee from infrastructures attacks and now that they will lose support.

Cannot rely on hope to win a war...

Yes if Russia are able to exhaust Ukrainian forces it can be a thing but it look like a lot of their efforts is against Ukrainian conscripts without experiences while Ukrainians veterans are mostly kept in the back. Zelensky will not rethink about anything, he's not paid for that. They have so many conscript pushed on the front that they are maintaining it more or less.

If they are able to pull a Kursk against the Ukrainian spring offensive it would be interesting to watch. We will see if they are able to keep Wagner intact while not providing them ammo and supplies.

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yes ukraine still has a lot of conscripts to go through. but looking at the way they have changed the rules surrounding eligibility, it seems to be that they are primarily taking in draft-dodgers at this point. while the experienced units are held back, but they will have to come out for the offensive. this is where i think russia will have its opportunity to inflict some damage. if ukraine's more elite units suffer big losses, i would not be surprised if ukraine suffer some sort of catastrophic collapse throughout its lines. this is why i keep going back to the WWI analogy, because it really is the only way either side can achieve success, Ukraine/NATO's game plan now surely also invokes the fall of Romanov. In my opinion, russia's tactic in the front is quite sensible, as attrition and denial of progress to Ukrainian forces are likely taking a toll on its morale. so long as ukraine is denied another significant victory like kherson or kharkiv, then its morale will continue to be depleted. it will only prompt zelensky to seek more adventurism, leading to more casualties, until they can no longer go on.

sheogorath said:

I wonder if true and how large this offensive is. The usual accounts haven't commented much yet

I do expect that if the Russians retake Krasny Lyman and Kupyansk, which were presented as massive losses for Russia back in autumn, they will become "irrelevant little towns only taken for propaganda purposes".

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i imagine their objectives will likely to be the towns you stated there, it will give them a good natural barrier to defend with for the rest of the year. no point in going any further until bakhmut and siversk are dealt with really.

This video looks like an Orlan 30 and a Krasnopol at work. An M777 gets destroyed at Kherson by the BARS Kaskad. BARS means this is a Russian volunteer special force and not the same as obtf Kaskad of the DPR.


Russian special forces hit Ukrainian APCs with ATGMs.


Ukrainian Humvee gets hit by an ATGM at Marinka.


Ukrainian Motolyga APCs get hit by Russian ATGMs.


This I think is an older video but I have not seen this before. This shows obtf Kaskad taking out targets at Pavlovka.

How Russia's 35-mile armoured convoy ended in failure​

A BBC article exposing the real situation of the convoy 56 km north of Kiev at the beginning of the war.

Apparently the Russians used a remote controled MT-LB loaded with explosives against an Ukranian position in Svatovo.

That's some serious boom there. I can see at least 3 OFAB's and that long explosive cable for UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.