this is actually why i kept referring to the one hundred day campaign, which materialized after a failed german offensive. its like boxing, you get the other guy to commit, parry his attack, then make your strike while he is off balance.
the NYT article shared above says something that is pretty obvious to everyone watching this war, that Ukraine is going to attack somewhere in zaprozhia, where they are further away from russia. and russia is certainly doing the right thing by building up its defensive network around melitopol. it is also like what i said, it is basically kursk, where the next target for attack is quite obvious, and a defensive network is being set up for it.
of course this is only the most likely scenario, cant really rule out Ukraine getting clever and chooses to counterattack somewhere else say bakhmut, which allows them to destroy what is currently Russia's most potent force the Wagner.
I saw your comment posted when I had just posted my comment. Basically in the same direction as you.
OFF:
Russian tactics for taking trenches are changing, with armor opening a line of intense suppressive fire and landing infantry a few meters away.
Another problem in case there is a Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhzhia, as has already happened twice:
Too wide terrain, similar to what the allies had in Kuwait, but they had immense technological, artillery and aviation advantage. In terms of fire control system, Abrams, Leopard 2A5/6 and Challenger II have practical equality with T-72B3M, T-90M and T-80BVM, with 2nd and 3rd generation thermal systems, but the Russians have air superiority and in artillery, as demonstrated in the Ukrainian offensive at Huliapole, where the Russians had more T-80BV and T-72BV.
The Leopard 2A4s have older generation IR, even lower than the T-62M, which have 2nd generation thermal sights. Not to mention the Moroccan T-72B that only have passive IR systems and the Leopard 1 that have derivatives of the 2A4, the EMES 15.
There will be 31 Leopard 2A5 and 2A6 and 30 Leopard 2A4, which will be the last to be delivered due to repairs.
There is still a possibility that is being aired that the Ukrainians intend to carry out military operations in Transnistria, where there are about 2-4 thousand Russian Military and another 2 thousand Separatists. I don't know how the Ukrainians will do this, but there is such a possibility.
The Ukrainian president's office has handed over to MI6 plans of the Ukrainian General Staff for a military operation against Transnistria.
Britain must push the Moldovan president and obtain tacit approval for a military operation by the AFU in the DMR that would allow the Khokhlyas to replenish their ammunition stocks for Soviet-era equipment.
Two kilometers from the Ukrainian border, on DMR territory, is the largest ammunition depot in Europe. It is located in the village of Kolbasna. This arsenal is guarded by the Operative Group of Russian Forces (OGRF) deployed in Transnistria as well as the local military.
According to many experts, the amount of ammunition in the Transnistrian warehouse is enough for several years of war.
It seems that the thesis that "Moldova will be next" has the right to live...
The Russians are having more success with their cruise missile strikes, using Shahid drones in a saturation attack on Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses and then sending in Kalibr, which, between them, have decoys.
To complete my post:
There are 47 Leopards (2A4, 2A5 and 2A6, with unknown ammunition), 31 M1A2 Abrams (Chobham armor), 60 PT-91 and 14 Challenger II (Chobham too), with support from 60-70 Bradleys.
Together, there are 187 (?) Leopard 1 and 20 Moroccan T-72S.
That's enough strength to sustain an offensive in a limited region, which needs to be on clear ground due to the mass of armor and everything points me to Zaporizhzhia.
Kharkiv is a region full of villages and forests, a feast for light infantry. The Russians suffered from this and the Ukrainians now suffer from VDV in Svatovo, so much so that the Russians are now on the counterattack.
Kherson is very well guarded along its entire bank, which completely prevents its crossing:
The only region where there are bridges for transporting these vehicles is Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk.
If I were the Russians, I would keep the reserves and bomb these two bridges, letting these vehicles pass through only one place: Poltava. There is the main Logistic HUB of all Donbas for the Ukrainians and where there are railway lines for transporting heavy armored vehicles.
The Ukrainians would have to concentrate these assets there if they did not adopt an offensive and instead used these assets to counterattack or defend Slavyansk-Kramatorsk after the fall of Bakhmut, which should take place in early March or earlier depending on progress on the ground.
