The War in the Ukraine

HighGround said:

Is this an inability or a deliberate decision? I don't know, but I am skeptical of Russia's ability to carry out any major combined arms offensive, or even anything as simple as orchestrating an armored push through a weak point in the Ukrainian defensive line. They simple haven't demonstrated anything beyond their ability to grind down the enemy through massive artillery fire and extensive infantry assaults (some of which, admittedly, were carried out decently well).

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According to Russian pre-war doctrine, in the event of a mobilization they are supposed to use divisions and brigades.

So the reservists fill up the 3 empty infantry battalions of a brigade, and the empty ones of a division.

So far we are seeing the exact reverse, a lot of ad-hoc actions I find.

Instead of brigades and divisions being used in the Ukraine with combined arms like in World War 2, Ukrainian sources are claiming that the Russians are now using 'company tactical groups' instead of 'battalion tactical groups'.

I would like to see what a fully trained, combined arms Russian division and brigade attack looks like.

Further all the Russian training footage revealed since partial mobilization has been unimpressive.

The complete lack of WW2 style 'concentrated' use of Russian forces is noticeable. It might be that concentrating forces, in the modern era is actually a major vulnerability. Like all those tanks and vehicles knocked out by the Ukrainian artillery forces in the spring-summer when they caught Russian forces bunched up together.

So the Russians instead just peel off small battlegroups from brigades and divisions and use as needed.

SlothmanAllen said:

I was able to find a bit of information by looking on google and twitter (as always, may not be 100% reliable). Current AIM-120 production maxes out at 1,200 missiles per year and operates at around 1/3 that capacity.

In September 2022, the DoD signed a contract worth ~ a billion dollars for AIM-120D3 and C7 production to be completed by 2025 (don't know rate of production - ~40% of this will go to FMS).

Current total production of AIM-120 missiles is around ~21,000 lifetime to date.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515071706943000577

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515071706943000577

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515071706943000577

Just to give everybody an idea on what may be available to send to Ukraine.

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I have my doubts about actually being able to ramp up to max capacity of the production line.
There will be a number of bottlenecks
1. Supply chain ramp up (especially semiconductors)
2. Labour shortage

DoD requires companies to be certified under their "Trusted Foundry" program. Some of them are small outfits like Skywater Technology. This surge demand will be competing with commercial capacity, can they accommodate?

Photos of a fallen or downed Russian Kh-101 cruise missile on January 26, 2023 in the Vinnitsa region .

SolarWarden said:

Aim-120D entered service 8 years ago that's not anywhere near "barely."

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Just because on paper its in service, doesn't mean you have enough of them to go around to give to Ukraine

Let alone something that is far more critical to US war fighting capabilities against China, unlike everything else that has been delivered until now.

From @typexx second picture


Is that a countermeasures dispenser?. Can't spot it in any old pic of the Kh-101's

HighGround said:

Russian plans for a general offensive seem suicidal to me.

But time will tell.

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Going forward, please provided more substantial commentary to support these one-liner claims.

sheogorath said:

Just because on paper its in service, doesn't mean you have enough of them to go around to give to Ukraine

Let alone something that is far more critical to US war fighting capabilities against China, unlike everything else that has been delivered until now.

From @typexx second picture

Is that a countermeasures dispenser?. Can't spot it in any old pic of the Kh-101's

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Just because YOU say "there isn't enough to go around" doesn't make it so in fact that is just your false opinion. If you scroll up you would know that the US produces 1200 Aim-120's a year thanks to a fellow member who posted that info. US will likely allow Ukraine to have two squadrons of F-16's which is around 30 or 40. You're telling me US can't give Ukraine 80 Aim-120D's? Not all F-16's need carry the D only those that escort strike F-16's and a US combat load in air to air is 4 missiles two IR and two BVR.

typexx said:

Ukrainian kamikaze drone hit Russian BMP-3.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619665496709931010

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Exactly what I was talking about in previous pages regarding FPV drones, may not pose much of a danger to tanks, but the allure of a squad level, low cost high accuracy 'smart' projectile can ruin the day of anything from infantry clusters to APCs. Visibility from within armoured vehicles are probably too poor to notice the incoming drone until it is right about to hit.

Excuse the title, but the below video is a good example of the work that this type of drone is currently doing on the field. It doesn't seem noticeably slowed down by the payload either.

Joe said no Abrams and Patriots too until "they" said yes.

Poor Joe he still doesn't understand he's not in charged.

tankphobia said:

Exactly what I was talking about in previous pages regarding FPV drones, may not pose much of a danger to tanks, but the allure of a squad level, low cost high accuracy 'smart' projectile can ruin the day of anything from infantry clusters to APCs. Visibility from within armoured vehicles are probably too poor to notice the incoming drone until it is right about to hit.

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It hit the cannon. Also using RPGs rounds makes it depedant on them hitting at an angle where the shaped charge can form properly and penetrate.

It probably is a harassing and psychological effective tool, yes, but its makeshift nature and the limitation of using a round not designed to be employed in such a way will affect its performance and effectiveness. It certainly won't be the end of Russia's IFV fleet.