The War in the Ukraine

Stealthflanker said:

I would rate Marder have better protection than BMP's mainly because it does not have to swim. Thus it can devote more weight to armor. 46% of the weight of an IFV or APC is typically devoted to armor protection. Marder is roughly 33 metric tonne thus it boasts some 15 tonne of armor protection, it might protect it to most Russian heavy machineguns and sharpnels.

Ukrainians will use it like their BMP's minus direct river crossings. They will likely put Javelin there or their own Stugna ATGM's To "even" the odds when encountering BMP's or BTR equipped with ATGM's.

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Ukraine already received Milan ATGMs from France and Italy, they can use those without any modifications.

Is there any evidence that ATGMs fired from tanks and IFVs have seen any use in this conflict by either side? There's been ample opportunity, all BMPs and most T-64/T-80/T-90 and T-72B variants seen in Ukraine should in theory be able to do it.

A turning point in the war is very likely.

Germany could hand over at least 100 Leo-2a4s
Spain is prepared to hand over 80 Leo-2a4s
The Finns are ready to hand over 80+ Leo-2a4s
Poland is ready to hand over all of its 240 Leo-2a4 and Leo-2a5, but not immediately and only after receiving sufficient numbers of Black Panthers and Abrams in exchange.

In addition, the Norwegians and Danes could provide us with Leo-2s, and perhaps the Canadians as well.
In total, this will amount to around 500-650 Leopard-2s.

If the US also transfers 200-300 Abrams ...

Supposedly 10 Challenger 2 tanks may also be delivered by the UK as well. Probably to break the floodgates in sending MBT's rather than any substantial aid

Kobol said:

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Supposedly 10 Challenger 2 tanks may also be delivered by the UK as well. Probably to break the floodgates in sending MBT's rather than any substantial aid

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I'd be surprised if Challengers get sent to the Ukraine, the UK doesn't have many in storage and is planning on keeping them in the form of the Challenger 3.

M1s or Leopards are what I expect to turn up eventually when the world's eastern bloc stock of tanks is depleted.

Not that it'll make much of a difference, how many tank v tank fights have we seen? A 152mm shell landing on the latest M1A2 will have the same effect as one landing on a T-64.

tabu said:

A turning point in the war is very likely.

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This is "turning point" number what now?.

tabu said:

Spain is prepared to hand over 80 Leo-2a4s

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This already has been discarded as the Spanish Leopard 2A4 are in horrible condition and there is no cheap or easy way to fix them. This has been argued ad nauseam.

tabu said:

Germany could hand over at least 100 Leo-2a4s

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Germany doesn't have any Leo 2A4 they can hand over without extensive refit and repairs. The majority of them were sold a long time ago to different customers over the years

tabu said:

In addition, the Norwegians and Danes could provide us with Leo-2s, and perhaps the Canadians as well.
In total, this will amount to around 500-650 Leopard-2s.

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As one famous tv philosopher once said "if my grandmother had wheels, she would have been a bike". That's a lot of "if" that rely on so many variables that are not even worth considering and just comes across as bait.

tabu said:

Germany could hand over at least 100 Leo-2a4s
Spain is prepared to hand over 80 Leo-2a4s
The Finns are ready to hand over 80+ Leo-2a4s
Poland is ready to hand over all of its 240 Leo-2a4 and Leo-2a5, but not immediately and only after receiving sufficient numbers of Black Panthers and Abrams in exchange.

In addition, the Norwegians and Danes could provide us with Leo-2s, and perhaps the Canadians as well.
In total, this will amount to around 500-650 Leopard-2s.

If the US also transfers 200-300 Abrams ...

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Ukraine has 2000+ tank prior of war, with industrial capacity to maintanace, make spares and new tanks.

The maximum that the west could supply is less then 1000 tanks , all of them similar condition like the t-64 in open storage since 1990.

There is no insdustial capacity in Ukraine to refurbish them, or in the NATO.
No spare part manufacturing capacity, nothing.


The 300 abrams in real frontline usage could eat up all spare/maintanace capacity of the USA.

Means no tank available to train the USA army. Or do whatever they want.

Ukranian ammo depot hit in Ochakov. Likely it was the base were british soldiers were rumored to be based in order to support Ukraine's use of drones against Sevastopol.

tabu said:

A turning point in the war is very likely.

Germany could hand over at least 100 Leo-2a4s
Spain is prepared to hand over 80 Leo-2a4s
The Finns are ready to hand over 80+ Leo-2a4s
Poland is ready to hand over all of its 240 Leo-2a4 and Leo-2a5, but not immediately and only after receiving sufficient numbers of Black Panthers and Abrams in exchange.

In addition, the Norwegians and Danes could provide us with Leo-2s, and perhaps the Canadians as well.
In total, this will amount to around 500-650 Leopard-2s.

If the US also transfers 200-300 Abrams ...

Click to expand...

Do you have any evidence for that, or is it the same political pandering by uninfluential politicians and think tanks that we saw a couple of days ago? And if you are just pulling random wishes out of your hat, why not aim for F-35s, F-22s and some E-3s just for good measure? Maybe some Arleigh Burkes and Virginia class submarines?

tabu said:

A turning point in the war is very likely.

Germany could hand over at least 100 Leo-2a4s
Spain is prepared to hand over 80 Leo-2a4s
The Finns are ready to hand over 80+ Leo-2a4s
Poland is ready to hand over all of its 240 Leo-2a4 and Leo-2a5, but not immediately and only after receiving sufficient numbers of Black Panthers and Abrams in exchange.

In addition, the Norwegians and Danes could provide us with Leo-2s, and perhaps the Canadians as well.
In total, this will amount to around 500-650 Leopard-2s.

If the US also transfers 200-300 Abrams ...

Click to expand...

Well, I could see some ending in Ukraine hands, the problem is how many are ready to send at the same time and in good conditions.

In most case, they need to refurbish them or waiting for replacement before sending them like most country are asking. Maybe in the best scenario they could receive 20 of those a month for 3 years. Not sure it will provoke a turning point...

sheogorath said:

This is "turning point" number what now?.

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If this was a drinking game, I doubt anyone who imbibes would have livers left at this point.

The Bradleys and Marders only make sense if the Ukrainians use them for training. 50 Bradleys are about 5 Ukrainian companies or 1 American battalion (3 companies, command section and a scout section). The Marders are 4 companies?

That's not a tipping point. That's a set of training units...if the Ukrainians are not desperate. If they are, the IFVs will go to the front immediately.

Despite the fluff, the hype, the bloviating, and more, we will just have to wait and see what we see. The war isn't going to see massive changes anytime soon, IMO(*). The winter has been VERY warm in relative terms and the ground hasn't frozen. Moving forward with armor is going to be extremely hard: someone posted a stuck M113 and those are only around 12 tons!

The Ukrainians are not exactly moving forward much. The Russians are moving meters per day at this point. It's a slugfest right now.

Movement will begin again with either the ground thoroughly freezes or after the Raputitsa is done around May(**).

*. Watch that be a cursed statement.

**. You guys will be all over me if I am wrong, I am sure.