A very good article analysing the new 155mm BONUS submunition recently delivered from France to the Ukrainian Army .
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
If Russia does that then they are fools. Ukraine would keep most of its industrial capabilities if we use current positions as the delineating border. When Russia next had trouble with Ukraine, they would be significantly stronger than they are right now and much more of a hassle. I think capturing Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia is a minimum, but ideally central Ukraine should be captured or subdued including Kiev and Dnipro. This "Korean scenario" does not meet Russian goals. Either they are Finlandized or it won't stop.
By giving up Kherson on the other side of the Dnieper river Russia made that impossible. Going along the coast I mean. They would have to come through Belarus.
I might be mistaken but I think they invented optimization theory after the war. As for stamped guns, the Germans had better technology in that actually, they made the MG-42 out of stamped parts. Russia had to adapt German stamping technology later after the war to be able to make the stamped AK-47. But yes the PPSh was way easier to manufacture than German submachine guns back then.
01.06.2023
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Javelins and Stingers sent to Ukraine
Raytheon and Lockheed Martin make weapons like the Javelins and Stingers that have helped Ukraine turn back the invasion by Russia. Yet the depletion of the U.S. arsenal is concerning, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based think tank.
“Some U.S. inventories are reaching the minimum levels needed for war plans and training,” CSIS said in a September report.
The DoD has requested congressional approval to fund increased production capabilities for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS), the CSIS report said.
The industry’s general position, however, is that the DoD should make commitments for multi-year acquisition to justify industry investment in surge capabilities, according to the report.
A CSIS study examined the ability of the defense industrial base to replace inventories in an emergency and found that the process would take many years for most items.
Guided rockets like HIMARS and GMLRS are enormously useful, but the numbers are likely limited, according to CSIS.
“The U.S. has an estimated inventory of 25,000 to 30,000 remaining from a production run of 55,000 rockets to date,” CSIS said in the report. “If the U.S. sent one-third of that inventory to Ukraine (as has been the case with Javelin and Stinger), Ukraine would receive 8,000 to 10,000 rockets. That inventory would likely last several months but, when the inventory is exhausted, there are no alternatives. Production is about 5,000 a year. Although the U.S. is working to increase that amount, and money has recently been allocated for that purpose, it will take years.”
More than 200 Javelin missiles and launchers and 250 Stinger systems approved for sale to Taiwan in 2015 haven’t been delivered, Mark Montgomery and Bradley Bowman noted in a Defense News report. Montgomery, a former U.S. Navy Rear Admiral, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Bowman is senior director of the FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power.
...
Javelins and Stingers sent to Ukraine
Raytheon and Lockheed Martin make weapons like the Javelins and Stingers that have helped Ukraine turn back the invasion by Russia. Yet the depletion of the U.S. arsenal is concerning, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based think tank.
“Some U.S. inventories are reaching the minimum levels needed for war plans and training,” CSIS said in a September report.
The DoD has requested congressional approval to fund increased production capabilities for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS), the CSIS report said.
The industry’s general position, however, is that the DoD should make commitments for multi-year acquisition to justify industry investment in surge capabilities, according to the report.
A CSIS study examined the ability of the defense industrial base to replace inventories in an emergency and found that the process would take many years for most items.
Guided rockets like HIMARS and GMLRS are enormously useful, but the numbers are likely limited, according to CSIS.
“The U.S. has an estimated inventory of 25,000 to 30,000 remaining from a production run of 55,000 rockets to date,” CSIS said in the report. “If the U.S. sent one-third of that inventory to Ukraine (as has been the case with Javelin and Stinger), Ukraine would receive 8,000 to 10,000 rockets. That inventory would likely last several months but, when the inventory is exhausted, there are no alternatives. Production is about 5,000 a year. Although the U.S. is working to increase that amount, and money has recently been allocated for that purpose, it will take years.”
More than 200 Javelin missiles and launchers and 250 Stinger systems approved for sale to Taiwan in 2015 haven’t been delivered, Mark Montgomery and Bradley Bowman noted in a Defense News report. Montgomery, a former U.S. Navy Rear Admiral, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Bowman is senior director of the FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power.
I think Russia needs to stick to realities on the ground. I recall how at the earlier stages of war, people were discussing how all of Ukraine would be overrun. Russia just doesn't have the numbers on the ground. Also, people keep saying 'Russia is being soft'. No, I think they have genuine logistic limitations and are doing best that they can. Russia has already politically stated that their aim is to integrate Russian speaking parts into Russia proper and close this topic.
I cannot see them go west of the Dnieper after leaving Kherson. The best they can do is taking all the east while blowing all the bridges... The least they can do is stopping with Luhansk, Donets, Zaporizhia and east part of Kherson, and having a land border that will be an unending mess.
Less than that is failure.
I think whatever they are holding now +/- little here and there, is the best case scenario right now unless Ukraine suddenly collapses which I don't think they would. This also only if there is external pressure on Ukraine to do it.
There is also chance they may loose more stuff.
I think any leaving any pro-Western regime intact is a failure....what's the point of adding more land or territory to the world's #1 largest country unless it's to serve a grand strategy... it would only delay future conflicts in the future with an re-armed enemy that would even more costly down the line... Might as well use everything in Russia's arsenal to eliminate regime and install a puppet or annex the entire country ...
solarz
Brigadier
Comment from one of the popular Russian Telegram channels, automatic translation:
Zaluzhny will obviously try to repeat what he did last spring and fall. First, at the expense of cannon fodder (Ukrainian losses in the spring and summer of 2022 are monstrous) stop our troops, then attack with newly formed, newly trained and equipped brigades. In September, Zaluzhny managed to do this. The huge mistakes of our command and the huge shortage of personnel allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win near Balakleya and Izyum without a fight, we gave the border areas of Kharkiv region as a bonus.
Now 3 new corps are being formed in Ukraine, which will be equipped with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles in an amount much larger than 50, also I think a few hundred more tanks, MRAPS, short-range air defense systems, etc. . will be added to them. Kyiv will look for a breakthrough in the direction of Melitopol, Zaporozhye.
That is why now thousands of mobilized and untrained Ukrainians are dying near Bakhmut, Soledar, Kremennaya and Svatovo. Their only function is to hold the front lines as long as possible while new brigades are manned and trained (including in Western Europe) to launch new attacks.
The rear of the enemy is working at full capacity (Kyiv's rear is practically all of Europe and the USA), personnel are preparing at an accelerated pace, and most likely by April the corps will be transferred in the direction of the main attack. I very much hope that we have learned from the defeats of the autumn and this time we will drown the enemy's corps in his own blood.
Yes, whatever the critics say, but Wagner near Bakhmut and Soledar is now doing the most important things, namely destroying the enemy's personnel, knocking out his military units and formations. Bakhmut, having become a point of attraction for the forces, grinds in his meat grinder Ukrainian reinforcements, which, unlike money and even equipment, are not endless.
Zaluzhny will obviously try to repeat what he did last spring and fall. First, at the expense of cannon fodder (Ukrainian losses in the spring and summer of 2022 are monstrous) stop our troops, then attack with newly formed, newly trained and equipped brigades. In September, Zaluzhny managed to do this. The huge mistakes of our command and the huge shortage of personnel allowed the Armed Forces of Ukraine to win near Balakleya and Izyum without a fight, we gave the border areas of Kharkiv region as a bonus.
Now 3 new corps are being formed in Ukraine, which will be equipped with Bradley infantry fighting vehicles in an amount much larger than 50, also I think a few hundred more tanks, MRAPS, short-range air defense systems, etc. . will be added to them. Kyiv will look for a breakthrough in the direction of Melitopol, Zaporozhye.
That is why now thousands of mobilized and untrained Ukrainians are dying near Bakhmut, Soledar, Kremennaya and Svatovo. Their only function is to hold the front lines as long as possible while new brigades are manned and trained (including in Western Europe) to launch new attacks.
The rear of the enemy is working at full capacity (Kyiv's rear is practically all of Europe and the USA), personnel are preparing at an accelerated pace, and most likely by April the corps will be transferred in the direction of the main attack. I very much hope that we have learned from the defeats of the autumn and this time we will drown the enemy's corps in his own blood.
Yes, whatever the critics say, but Wagner near Bakhmut and Soledar is now doing the most important things, namely destroying the enemy's personnel, knocking out his military units and formations. Bakhmut, having become a point of attraction for the forces, grinds in his meat grinder Ukrainian reinforcements, which, unlike money and even equipment, are not endless.