The War in the Ukraine

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
I think there is a 60% chance for a Russian offensive in the comming days.

Interesting data :
1. weather
weat.jpg

The weather become obivous in the past few days, and the lead us to the next hint
2. 36 hour unilitar armistice , ending at the midnight of 7th of January, during the coldest period.
3. Thermobaric bombs spoted on trains going to the front in the past days, just around the decision of the armistice , when it become obivous the weather will be freezing


odab.jpg

4. Precision guided bomb kits turned up on the net in the past days, most likelly due to the distibution of them on the frontlines ( it is not secret anymore .... )
jd.jpg


I think the main target of the past few month Shahed / Calibr raids was to destroy /use up as much resources as possible of the Ukrainan air defence. Now it become feasible to lobe or drop munitions onto the trences.


Thermobaric munition, launched from 80 km and landing on on a trench would kill everyone there .


Odab 500 has the quivalent explosion force of 200 artirelly shell.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
NATO does not need to do this. The goal is to erode Russia's military capacity by turning Ukraine into an Afghanistan for the Russians, the Russians to recreate their army will have to increase military spending absurdly, as we are seeing in Russian military incapacity:
That whole video is retarded Ukrainian propaganda.

Russia never had 1.5 million uniforms of Ratnik grade gear in the first place. They never ordered that many. Just enough for their standing army. The government's concern is that all mobilized troops have proper modern equipment and not Soviet era equipment. There were logistical issues figuring out where available uniforms and weapons were stored and handing them out to the troops. And clearly more equipment had and needs to be ordered and produced to equip them all with modern gear. But the talk that the gear was not delivered and counted as such due to corruption is a lie.

The lack of body armor for all the mobilized is nothing the US itself did not experience in 2003 in Iraq. Troops improvized with steel plates on HMMVs by themselves, had to order their own underwear because the one the US Army provided did not whick moisture and sweat properly in a desert climate, there was basically no body armor provided to most of the troops, there was a lack of proper optics for the rifles. But we are supposed to believe this is a unique Russian problem for whatever reason.

They show Donbass militiamen with a Mosin-Nagant rifle and claim that is the Russian Army. It is like I showed you the US sponsored Kurdish militias in Northern Iraq in 2003 and claimed that was the US Army.

They show rusted AKs which were provided to some Russian mobilized troops while on the training ground and imply the Russian Army is deployed to combat with something like that.

T-62s were introduced in the 1961 but were produced until 1975. The T-62M upgrade Russia is using is from 1983. And those tanks are not supposed to be used in armored offensives. Ukraine is now getting the much worse T-55 as aid. Why no laughs at that?

The problem of lack of pilots in Russia is due to lack of trainer aircraft like the Yak-130 because of the sanctions. Not money. They are bottlenecked in how many pilots they can train a year. Or should I saw were since the Yak-130 started being delivered with Russian Al-222 produced engines this year.

Commercial GPS devices are only used in legacy Soviet aircraft like the Su-25. None of the upgraded or modernized aircraft need such contrivances. And GLONASS development lagged because of Western sanctions. They only managed to recover from those two years ago and launched several satellites this year with their own electronics to replace imported ones from Europe.

They claim Russian missiles are inaccurate and fail then show the image of a Ukrainian SAM missile launch hitting their own city of Kiev in the night as illustration.

S-400 missiles are too expensive to use for intercepting something like HIMARS rounds. The system is used to intercept aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Artillery rockets would be intercepted with Pantsir or Tor.

It is normal to use rubber instead of ERA in non-combat situations. It is replaced with ERA before combat. Because ERA can be dangerous and cause injury if used improperly it is typically not in tanks in peacetime. That some of it was not replaced with the proper modules is a mistake which happens.

It is a lie Russia did not prepare for this conflict. They have been preparing for a major conflict since like 2006. Their preparations ramped up after 2008 conflict in Georgia and 2014 conflict in Ukraine. They significantly increased the size of their land formations and combat aircraft since 2014.

Removed political content that can potentially derail the thread. Please stay away from politics.

-LawLeadsToPeace
 
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sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Just saw a reddit post with a photo of an alleged failed Russian offensive near Bachmut. 65 infantrymen all dead on open field. It seems like Ukrainian artillery did the job

They had no vehicles, it was just 65 soldiers on foot
If I recall correctly is the aftermath of a HIMARS strike with tungsten balls loaded rocket(M30A1) a few weeks ago.

NAFO crowds were jerking themselves off with the video on Twitter
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Another suburb of Bakhmut, the village of Podgorodnoye, came under the control of the "Wagner". Continues fighting in the direction of Krasna Hora as they attempt to gain control over the highway northeast of Bakhmut and cutting off the road between Bakhmut and Soledar to prevent any cooperation between the two cities.


I'm pretty sure the truce was Putin's unilateral idea and it was shot down by rest of Russian society on arrival because it was a retarded idea.
 

Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
The battle for Soledar: the main thing at the moment

From December 30 to January 7, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine defending Soledar lost at least 500 people killed and wounded.

According to the Military Chronicle, the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th battalions of the 46th separate airmobile brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered the greatest losses. At the end of December, this formation was understaffed with mobilized from the Kirovograd, Sumy and Ternopil regions, however, due to the lack of combat training, more than half of the mobilized recruits died six days after arriving at the front.

On January 3, due to the large number of irretrievable losses, the brigade command sent a company of radiation, biological and chemical protection to the first line of defense. 24 hours after being sent to the front, the unit stopped communicating and is currently considered missing.

After the front line shifted into urban areas to Lev Tolstoy and Chernyshevsky streets in the north-east of the city, as well as to Oktyabrskaya, Naberezhnaya and Tenistaya streets in the south-east of Soledar, the Armed Forces of Ukraine faced heavy losses in armored vehicles.

Since the end of December, the tank battalion of the 61st Jaeger Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has suffered the largest losses. On the narrow access roads of Soledar, the T-64BV and T-72M1R tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot actively maneuver and are destroyed by the crews of the Kornet and Konkurs anti-tank systems deployed by the Wagner PMC to the west of Yakovlevka.

In addition to ATGM crews, T-80BV “jet” tanks are actively working on military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the dominant heights.

To the south, under the fire control of the Giatsint-B and Giatsint-S guns of the Wagner PMC, a section of the route between the village of Blagodatnoye and the northwestern suburb near Sovetskaya Street was taken. Because of this, reinforcements of the 17th tank brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot arrive in Soledar. Now the support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units inside the quarters with heavy equipment is complicated not only because of the battles in the narrow streets, but also because of the inability to quickly transfer new armored vehicles and reinforcements.
 

Mirabo

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Leopard 1 and AMX-30 have crappy armor and an obsolete gun. Same deal with most M60s.

Hey! Don't diss the L7!

Even the PLA is still putting them on Type 15s and ZTL-11s and those are very modern vehicles. Yes, ZPL-94/98s are improved variants, but Chinese 105s are fundamentally improved L7 clones, and that suggests the gun is far from obsolete.

ZTL-11s have a medium-recoil variant while Type 88As and Type 15s run a high-powered 62-caliber variant. The older L7 models on the Leopard 1 and AMX-30 are 52 calibers long, but are not worse than the medium-recoil variant ZTL-11. They can be used like light tanks or heavy IFVs, like a BMP-3 with a much stronger gun. Using modern ammunition they could still threaten T-72As.

The main problem with older tanks is they often don't have the other equipment that matters, like thermal optics or datalinks, or modern gun stabilisation. So, situational awareness and target acquisition will be a problem. The gun itself though, is more than fine.

On a side note - I was joking to a friend about how the AMX 10 RC's 105 mm gun can't fire NATO 105x617mmR... Whereas Chinese 105s can, because they really are improved clones of the L7... Meaning that the Type 88A, Type 15, and ZTL-11 are technically more NATO-compatible than what the French are using?
 
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