The Americans have huge stocks of M1A2 to replace the Leopards.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Probably worth digging into who exactly is coming up with all these statements. They aren't being made by decision makers:
In Finland the suggestion came from two politicians in minor parties that support the government, not high ranking politicians. One is from the Swedish party, the other from the Green party. Finland has some 100-ish Leopard 2A4s sitting in reserve. These were placed in storage when they acquired the ex-Dutch Leopard 2A5s.
In Denmark, the suggestion comes from two politicians in minority opposition parties, one Socialist and the other Red-Green. They are simply going for cheap domestic political points. The army fought tooth and nail to get the Leopards upgraded to Leopard 2A7 standard before the F-35 gobbles up the budget. They won't voluntarily give them up now. Keep in mind, Denmark has refused to give up the 6 remaining CAESARs it has on order from France, despite being pushed to donate them by Ukraine and France.
The quote about Poland giving up the Leopards comes from the director of a think tank, not a politician.
It's just insignificant politicians and think tanks hoping to score political points by make hollow promises to give away anything the country has. Obviously they can only suggest giving away what the country already has, ergo Leopard 2s. Don't read anything deeper into it.
FWIW, Germany maintains fairly strict export restrictions on Leopards. No Leopard 2s are going to Ukraine until Germany gives the go-ahead.
They're unlikely to give 2A7A1 because most EU only have a tiny stock of them. Those are good vehicles, realistically on par with the T-14 that also only exists in tiny numbers. But without good artillery and air support, they're very vulnerable like any other tank.
Poland sent their stock of PT91s and within days, the first destroyed started turning up. Now we don't ever see them anymore, not even as losses.
I think they will get Leopard 2 because there are simply starting to be nothing left to give. APCs alone won't allow Ukraine to hold the current front if they have 0 operable tanks. But it will be the old variants such as basic leopard 2 or 2A4.
I doubt NATO gonna send their best tank, Leopard 2A6-7 or M1A2.
Imagine how it gonna look if those tank getting knock out by Russian ATGM or bog down in muddy terrain. And honestly, see the way Ukraine used these tank, it's not unrealistic to think they gonna get destroyed in a few days after deployed. Western MIC will not happy with that.
And while all these NATO supporter cheering and talking about battle proven of these tank. In reality, they were never deployed in neer peer battle. The closest thing to that was Desert Storm and that was a turkey shoot with full controlled air space.
Imagine how it gonna look if those tank getting knock out by Russian ATGM or bog down in muddy terrain. And honestly, see the way Ukraine used these tank, it's not unrealistic to think they gonna get destroyed in a few days after deployed. Western MIC will not happy with that.
And while all these NATO supporter cheering and talking about battle proven of these tank. In reality, they were never deployed in neer peer battle. The closest thing to that was Desert Storm and that was a turkey shoot with full controlled air space.
It's not even just a face thing.
Looking at their latest support for Ukraine, it's clear that they're increasingly going for palliative doses rather than curative doses, so to say.
Trickling in single numbers of HIMARS, Patriot, still forcing Ukraine to rely on jury rigged pickup truck GRAD. 100 humvees and what will likely be the oldest Bradleys found in the storages, at numbers as small as 50.
NATO itself probably knows that this is a trap, a tarpit designed to waste and blunt their offensive force. They're countering it by sending their least desirable stuff.
If they wanted to win, they'd ready up real mechanized formations from outside Ukraine borders and then send them in all at one go. 800+ IFVs of modern type and not relics like M113, 300+ modern tanks, 100+ wheeled MLRS, 50+ tracked MLRS and enough air defense to keep the formation intact.
But that would mean actually pushing into where there are heavy Russian lines. And Russia is beckoning to NATO with their slow advance to come and try it. So far, NATO is having none of that.
Also it is not true that leopard 2A4 and m1a1 were only battle tested against what is practically afk forces in Iraq. They were also battle tested during the Syria war against ISIS. Granted, this wasn't anywhere peer conflict, but at least ISIS had tactics of staying mobile and supporting their infantry.
There is no EU stock of weapons. The individual members are still in charge of military matters.
There is plenty of stock of main battle tanks. What there isn't, is a willingness to hand over tanks in exchange for MAN trucks.
Bulgaria has a large number of T-72s (possibly up to 400, but only 44 in service), and seems intent on procuring Leopard 2s to replace them. Hungary has a couple of hundred that will also be released as the new Leopard 2A7 enters service.
Cyprus has 80 T-80s.
Romania has several hundred of the TR-85.
Croatia has 75 M-84s, Slovenia another 50. Both have shown interest in replacing them with Leopard 2s.
Once you are through those, you have older western tanks. Greece has 500+ Leopard 1s, Turks also have loads and there are the 50 from German stocks that were talked a lot about earlier in the war. A smattering of AMX-30s can be scrounged and lots of M60s. You could even source T-72s and M-84s from other close nations, Kuwait or Malaysia for example.
So if any European nations are intent on giving away their Leopard 2s, that's what will happen. They will be traded for more T-72s and similar.
This is very funny. According to the Guardian, Prigozhin is obsessed with taking over Bakhmut for financial reasons because of the salt and gypsum mines that will sponsor Putin's war.
Bulgaria already sent 50-100 of them to Ukraine at least. I have seen pictures of tanks in Ukraine the Russians captured with the signage inside saying they were made in Bulgaria. Hungary has refused to send any weapons into Ukraine and likely will continue to do it.
If the Greeks in Cyprus are dumb enough to send them. I guess they won't have any support from Russia next time the Turkish side invades the Greek side.
Hey, it might happen, more crappy T-55s.
Slovenia already sent theirs. And Croatia thus far has proven unwilling to send military hardware to Ukraine.
The Leopard 1 and AMX-30 have crappy armor and an obsolete gun. Same deal with most M60s. I doubt Turkey would send any upgraded M60s since those are in fact the tanks they ended up using in Syria after the Leopard 2A4 proved not to be any better.
If they send Leopard 2s it will likely be the 2A4. And the Turkish ones proved to pretty much useless against insurgents in Syria. You think it will do better against the Russian army?
La Repubblica: US puts pressure on Italy to send SAMP-T air defense systems to Ukraine:
The NATO alliance may intervene in the conflict in Ukraine this year. British Army Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon expressed this opinion in The Telegraph. "We have to be honest with ourselves. <...> Escalation this year is probably more than likely."
The NATO alliance may intervene in the conflict in Ukraine this year. British Army Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon expressed this opinion in The Telegraph. "We have to be honest with ourselves. <...> Escalation this year is probably more than likely."