The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
NATO AWACS and other ISR assets probably. The Buks will just be glorified taxis for the Sparrows, which will be relying on NATO assets for everything else.

Would be unthinkable at the start of the war, but with Russia not making one single peep about NATO assets getting more and more directly involved in the kill chain in Ukraine, it was only a matter of time before salami slicing got us here.

The only saving grace is they will probably only use these to intercept UAVs and missiles, so it’s not completely crossing the rubicon I guess.

The next escalation step could well be NATO fighters directly intercepting Russian UAVs and ordinance over Ukraine.
NATO is clearly walking on the rope big time. With f-35 available... not sure they are not doing it. Wandering arround the west borders, F-35 could probably work silently and engaging air assets. A bit of coordination with ground troop to launch some missiles at the same time to hide their actions. Ukraine pay the price of exterior motives with their infrastructures and foremost their citizens in that war. They have limbs stuck in the gear. Nato pull so many strings.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Team Ghouta seems to think Marders are heavy armor
They are hoping to send only around 40 Marder vehicles to Ukraine in Q1, so in the next 3 months... that's a drip in an ocean of burning metal... event if they were mbt, would still be a drip.

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For the news of several dozen Bradley... it look big but it's only 50 of them...another drip.

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They loss more than these in 3 month... and they are all different systems and ammunitions.
 
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Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
For those wondering what sea sparrows on a BUK platform may look like.
View attachment 104490
This is a Czech system

Except it's not Buk at all.. that's Aspide on chassis of Kub (Sa-6). For Buk thingy something has to be done on the large 9S35 "Fire Dome" radar to make it work to illuminate target for the missile (as Sparrow is SARH) Or you bring external illuminator.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Comment from Russian Telegram channels, automatic translation from Russian:

The West is beginning to get nervous. Slowly, but inevitably. They are still full of bravura statements that Ukraine will supposedly win, and they are still scraping their arsenals to find some "wunderwaffle" that can help Ukraine, but the general tone of statements is becoming alarming and not optimistic.

And first of all, not even from politicians, but from experts who understand the subject. Despite the absence of powerful breakthroughs on the front, and the fact that the fighting has become almost positional, many Western militaries understand that Ukraine is constantly weakening, losing men and equipment. Of Ukraine's victories, there are now only pinpoint strikes, which are quite painful and need to be dealt with, but new rapid rushes, such as the one in the Kharkov region, are no longer possible.

In the West, they say that Ukraine, to conduct new offensive operations, needs to prepare a fist of three corps of about 75,000 men. One third of the required have been trained in Europe and Great Britain, the rest have to be mobilized and somehow brought into a proper soldier's appearance.

The mobilization, quite wild, is going on right now and men are being grabbed right on the streets. The quality of those mobilized does not really matter, because even such a resource is running out. There are already rumors that those registered as refugees in Europe will be registered for military service. I think that the Europeans will happily agree to this.

The equipment for the new corps of the Ukrainian army has already been invented. They are French wheeled "light tanks", BMP "Bradley" and "Marder". As for the number - it will definitely not be prohibitive. It may be enough to arm several strike brigades, but the main strength of the new corps will still be infantry, the real "cannon fodder".

The significance of the new Ukrainian forces should not be underestimated, but there is also little reason for any serious concerns. The Ukrainians will not be able to create these three corps until mid-spring, in March at best, and things can change greatly before then. And the signs that this will be the case are already visible.

The Russian army is a rather cumbersome and slow machine, but it works. There is a clear accumulation of new forces, supported by new equipment, the Russian military-industrial complex is working very well in the face of sanctions, and Russia is still not running out of missiles. And still not all the trump cards have been used in terms of weapons. Recently, a whole echelon of ODAB bombs has been unveiled, which may be equipped with kits that turn them into precision-guided bombs. This bomb is scary stuff, and its appearance on the front could have an unexpected effect.

It is clear to everyone that positional wars are not won. They can only end with an unsustainable peace, which could be a prologue to a new war. Crawling offensives are not a solution either, since they improve the tactical situation of the troops at the front, but they are clearly not enough to solve the principal problems. It is clear that powerful strategic operations are needed, which involve defeating large numbers of AFU troops and advancing long distances.

And perhaps the time for such strikes will come very soon. I am sure that they are being prepared for them and very seriously. And not only by training troops, but also by strategic strikes that disable the infrastructure of Ukraine. Many questions arise as to why the transport infrastructure is still not engaged, but it seems to me that it is also in the plans, it is just that the General Staff is working systematically, by sequence.

It seems to me that there are interesting events ahead of us. And the hostilities may take on a very different character, which now worries Western experts so much.

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Comment from Russian Telegram channels, automatic translation from Russian:

The West is beginning to get nervous. Slowly, but inevitably. They are still full of bravura statements that Ukraine will supposedly win, and they are still scraping their arsenals to find some "wunderwaffle" that can help Ukraine, but the general tone of statements is becoming alarming and not optimistic.

And first of all, not even from politicians, but from experts who understand the subject. Despite the absence of powerful breakthroughs on the front, and the fact that the fighting has become almost positional, many Western militaries understand that Ukraine is constantly weakening, losing men and equipment. Of Ukraine's victories, there are now only pinpoint strikes, which are quite painful and need to be dealt with, but new rapid rushes, such as the one in the Kharkov region, are no longer possible.

In the West, they say that Ukraine, to conduct new offensive operations, needs to prepare a fist of three corps of about 75,000 men. One third of the required have been trained in Europe and Great Britain, the rest have to be mobilized and somehow brought into a proper soldier's appearance.

The mobilization, quite wild, is going on right now and men are being grabbed right on the streets. The quality of those mobilized does not really matter, because even such a resource is running out. There are already rumors that those registered as refugees in Europe will be registered for military service. I think that the Europeans will happily agree to this.

The equipment for the new corps of the Ukrainian army has already been invented. They are French wheeled "light tanks", BMP "Bradley" and "Marder". As for the number - it will definitely not be prohibitive. It may be enough to arm several strike brigades, but the main strength of the new corps will still be infantry, the real "cannon fodder".

The significance of the new Ukrainian forces should not be underestimated, but there is also little reason for any serious concerns. The Ukrainians will not be able to create these three corps until mid-spring, in March at best, and things can change greatly before then. And the signs that this will be the case are already visible.

The Russian army is a rather cumbersome and slow machine, but it works. There is a clear accumulation of new forces, supported by new equipment, the Russian military-industrial complex is working very well in the face of sanctions, and Russia is still not running out of missiles. And still not all the trump cards have been used in terms of weapons. Recently, a whole echelon of ODAB bombs has been unveiled, which may be equipped with kits that turn them into precision-guided bombs. This bomb is scary stuff, and its appearance on the front could have an unexpected effect.

It is clear to everyone that positional wars are not won. They can only end with an unsustainable peace, which could be a prologue to a new war. Crawling offensives are not a solution either, since they improve the tactical situation of the troops at the front, but they are clearly not enough to solve the principal problems. It is clear that powerful strategic operations are needed, which involve defeating large numbers of AFU troops and advancing long distances.

And perhaps the time for such strikes will come very soon. I am sure that they are being prepared for them and very seriously. And not only by training troops, but also by strategic strikes that disable the infrastructure of Ukraine. Many questions arise as to why the transport infrastructure is still not engaged, but it seems to me that it is also in the plans, it is just that the General Staff is working systematically, by sequence.

It seems to me that there are interesting events ahead of us. And the hostilities may take on a very different character, which now worries Western experts so much.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Apparently since the start of the year it's no longer possible for men in the Ukraine to get married, divorced or a host of other things without being registered for mobilisation.

Also with the same legislation the Ukrainians are stepping up efforts to get Ukrainians abroad returned for mobilisation.

These are all things the winning side does naturally. Not at all a sign that Ukrainians are being wiped out.

No mention of this in western news, unlike the mass reporting when Russia decided to draft reservists.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
They were expected to be expended tho, that's the rationale i got so far.. Ukrainian harms dated back from 80-90's , and God knows how old the Sea sparrow and Patriot they would get. Marder, pretty decent but just as old as the BMP-2's or 3 they were fighting against.

The EU and US really expended their old stocks, and they were expected to last only for relatively short time without any long term intent. The only way Ukrainian forces will maintain them is send them back to NATO country.
 
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