The War in the Ukraine

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
From the article you shared, it seems Turkish President Erdogan asked Putin in a phone call to declare a ceasefire and Putin agreed, and issued this Christmas ceasefire to show his sincerity to Erdogan and Zelensky about his intentions for negotiated settlement.



So my personal opinion is, Erdogan wants to be an intermediary between Ukraine/Russia to negotiate cease, and Erdogan pressed Putin to show he is serious, and this is the best Putin can do (issuing a Christmas ceasefire).

The concern is Putin is still seeking a negotiated settlement and trying to "prove" his sincerity to Erdogan and Zelensky.
You really are going to die on that hill, aren't you....
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Any Russian tactical advantages on the ground will likely be erased by NATO industrial/strategic advantages in 2023. This is an important lesson for China in any future conflict against the West: win the industrial / technology war before you fight the tactical one.
 

Rast

New Member
Registered Member

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Ukrainian UAV taken out by Russian MANPADS.



US supplied artillery counter battery radar taken out by kamikaze drone.


"TRIBUN-TIMUR.COM - The Militant Telegram Channel of the Donetsk People's Republic or DPR has released footage showing the destruction of Ukrainian radars. The footage was uploaded on Wednesday, January 4, 2023. In the narration of the upload, it is written that the Russian Armed Forces destroyed the counter-battery radar of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the help of a Kamikaze UAV. Previously, Russian scouts in the Avdeevsky direction managed to identify an American-made counter-battery radar used by Ukraine. The target is then immediately destroyed by a kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicle.(*)"



"TRIBUN-TIMUR.COM - A footage is circulating showing tanks, trucks and combat vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces scattered in a field. Unfortunately the vehicle looks destroyed and is now no longer fit for use. The footage was widely circulated on Telegram on Thursday, January 5, 2023. Russian troops were seen recording using a cellphone camera a number of Ukrainian military vehicles. (*)"
 

Mirek

New Member
Registered Member
Any Russian tactical advantages on the ground will likely be erased by NATO industrial/strategic advantages in 2023. This is an important lesson for China in any future conflict against the West: win the industrial / technology war before you fight the tactical one.

Russia isn’t fighting alone against the combined might of NATO, that’s absurd. They are supported by the SCO directly and indirectly which will ramp up to match whatever move NATO attempts to salvage the situation in Ukraine.

The Ukrainians have already burned through 3 armies worth of heavy equipment, professional soldiers, and competent officers. Now with the Warsaw Pact era stocks burnt through, it’s time for America to start opening up their armouries. Ukraine’s seemingly endless pool of forced conscripts won’t mean anything when they lose their ability to launch counter-offensives or wage modern war.

The United States and a de-energized, pacifist Europe will never match the combined manufacturing might of Russia, China, and Iran. Especially when they can’t leverage their massive airforce and navy against the compact supply lines of the Russian Armed Forces.

The mistake commentators on the SMO in Ukraine are making is that they don’t recognize Russia is focused on an economy of force operation to demilitarize Ukraine while taking minimal losses themselves. Since Russia doesn’t have the capability to quickly invade and disarm Ukraine they’ve done the second best thing; blow them away with massed firepower in battlefields which favour the Russian military. Any land which was captured during the opening weeks of the war but not conducive to tactical success has been ceded, to be taken back at a later date once the Ukrainians have been sufficiently weakened.

Even if this process takes another year or two, the outcome is inevitable.

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Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
Urgent⚡️Russian troops entered the center of Soledar⚡️

On the eve of the Russian forces as part of the Wagner PMC, the 58th Army and units of the 3rd Army Corps of the DPR, they stormed the key settlement of Bakhmutskoye and, developing the initiative, broke through to the center of Soledar.

Operational sources of the wargonzo project report that at the moment, the residential area from st. Cosmonauts to st. Telman, as well as half of the central Oktyabrskaya street. The enemy retreats to the north of the city to strongholds in the area of Yurchina Gora.

The main goal of the Russian troops at the moment is to cut the supply route for the APU grouping in Soledar, close the remaining enemy units without support and finally destroy them.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
So i see news on Ukraine adopting Sea Sparrow for Buk.

I'm curious how they could get the illumination part going considering Sparrow use pure CW (Continuous Wave) Illumination while Buk's 9M38 use High PRF waveform.

I'm actually expecting they would adopt AMRAAM or NASAMS for the Buk as that is the real improvement due to active radar homing.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
So i see news on Ukraine adopting Sea Sparrow for Buk.

I'm curious how they could get the illumination part going considering Sparrow use pure CW (Continuous Wave) Illumination while Buk's 9M38 use High PRF waveform.

I'm actually expecting they would adopt AMRAAM or NASAMS for the Buk as that is the real improvement due to active radar homing.

NATO AWACS and other ISR assets probably. The Buks will just be glorified taxis for the Sparrows, which will be relying on NATO assets for everything else.

Would be unthinkable at the start of the war, but with Russia not making one single peep about NATO assets getting more and more directly involved in the kill chain in Ukraine, it was only a matter of time before salami slicing got us here.

The only saving grace is they will probably only use these to intercept UAVs and missiles, so it’s not completely crossing the rubicon I guess.

The next escalation step could well be NATO fighters directly intercepting Russian UAVs and ordinance over Ukraine.
 
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