The War in the Ukraine

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
IIRC PLA experimented with using MANPADS to shoot down cruise missile and actually pulled it off successfully against target drones playing the part. But such things are extremely dependent on good ISR and informationization of all element involved. And even then its only really possible if the cruise missile directly overfly the MANPADS operator. It's considered by PLA to be a gimmick capability.

If you go into Vietnamese military forums you can see them discuss this same idea in the context of having their Tarantul class corvettes take on PLAN 052D and 055. The younger members would theoritise that if Tarantul go pedal to the metal and zigzag while the crew line up on deck with MANPADS they could dodge/shoot down YJ missile for long enough to get in range for launching Uran missile. The more experienced members would then shoot their idea down and tell them you'll barely know a cruise missile is coming before it hits, much less know which way to point the MANPADS.

I find it hard to believe this is a solved problem for Ukraine, outside of extremely rare circumstances.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Wagner PMC hitting positions of Ukrainian snipers with RPGs and ATGMs in Opytny. The entire zone around Bakhmut should be considered a grey zone by now.


Ukrainian DRG or infiltration group got spotted on infrared imaging and subsequently hit by artillery with deadly results.


100th Tank Brigade of the LPR attacking Ukrainian positions. Tanks are using drone assistance for artillery guidance, and are now often escorted by such.

 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
That MANPADS missile went nowhere close the cruise missile. If it was a MANPADS which shot down the cruise missile it certainly wasn't that one. It is really, really hard to shoot down anything faster than a helicopter with such systems. He would have had to shoot at the cruise missile head on, not after it was past him.
The cameraman changed his position during launch, as realised he could be hit by the exhaust.
Means the angles and positions tricky to calculate.

However it was a near perfect engagement, and the operator had a 4-6 second window t olaunch the SAM.

If the oparator off axis by a km, like the other MANPADS guy whom missile missed , then the window would be 1-2 second if possible at all.


It means to protect a frontline with MANPADS require one team in every km, with high discipline, and in that case it will need only 2-3 missile to shoot down one Calibr.


Means to protect all border and the frontline require 4000-5000 manpads, with a weekly suply of 300 new missile.

I think it is the only successfull launch from hundreds, and most likelly now they can't use manpads do defeat missiles, becuase either they try to kill calibrs, or they protect the frontline from helicopters.
 

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
I guess they can't make use of their captured TOR's or Pantsyrs.. so they only become fancy items for Western partners or for some "OSINT" people to nitpick western components being used. That's kind of unfortunate.
Well, it is expected. Such complex systems are not AK-47s that you can just pickup and use right from the start. You need trainers and Russia is surely not providing them to Ukraine, lol.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The cameraman changed his position during launch, as realised he could be hit by the exhaust.
Means the angles and positions tricky to calculate.
I have to correct myself.


I reevaluated the payout matrix, with next result :
General conditions: 1000 km long frontline to protect, expected missile salvo 30 crusie missile in a hour time. explored options MANPADS vs TOR, expected kill probablity for MANPADS 0.5, for TOR 0.8
1. MANPADS based air defence:
Require 500 firing points, with 3 seconds launch window each, required missiles per interception 2, required missiles per firing points 60. Resuired missile inverntory 30 000 . Required replenishment per salvo 60.
2. TOR based
require firgin points 50. Require missile per interception one. Required inverntory per firing points 60 . Required number of missiles 3000 .

Both method expecting long range SAMs to mop up the leftover missiles.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well, it is expected. Such complex systems are not AK-47s that you can just pickup and use right from the start. You need trainers and Russia is surely not providing them to Ukraine, lol.

I would expect Tor more tho as Ukraine do operates them although for some reason in relatively small numbers. Those already accustomed operating the Tor or Tor-M1 could perhaps directly transfer to Tor-M2 as apparently the Man-machine interface is the same although M2 make use more digital technology.

But well probably there aren't many Ukrainian PVO that fluent in operating Tor's in the first place or the captured system actually have way more Russian components than Western that they are not able to bring them operational due to lack of working Russian parts.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
I have to correct myself.


I reevaluated the payout matrix, with next result :
General conditions: 1000 km long frontline to protect, expected missile salvo 30 crusie missile in a hour time. explored options MANPADS vs TOR, expected kill probablity for MANPADS 0.5, for TOR 0.8
1. MANPADS based air defence:
Require 500 firing points, with 3 seconds launch window each, required missiles per interception 2, required missiles per firing points 60. Resuired missile inverntory 30 000 . Required replenishment per salvo 60.
2. TOR based
require firgin points 50. Require missile per interception one. Required inverntory per firing points 60 . Required number of missiles 3000 .

Both method expecting long range SAMs to mop up the leftover missiles.
30 missile for each firing point and 1500 missile stock, require 200 TOR TELAR
 
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