The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Ukrainian supply line hit by ATGMs. If your supply lines are getting hit by ATGMs and RPGs, maybe you don't know where the real front is.
Transcript:
TRIBUN-TIMUR.COM - This is the recording of the night battle of the Donetsk People's Republic or DPR vs Ukrainian troops in the direction of Avdiivka. The recording was widely circulated on Telegram on Wednesday, December 28, 2022. The upload statement stated that the DPR's 9th People's Militia Regiment carried out a night operation and stopped efforts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to carry out reconnaissance and deploy a platoon of motorized infantry. The fact of the delivery of ammunition and supplies to Ukrainian reconnaissance companies scattered along the forest belt was recorded by soldiers of the 9th regiment using UAVs with a built-in thermal imager. After that the Kornet ATGM operators and the artillery gun crews of the 9th regiment opened fire aimed at the Ukrainian Troops. "The Armed Forces of Ukraine hastily retreated to their original positions in the Avdeevsky fortified area," he explained.
Transcript:
TRIBUN-TIMUR.COM - This is the recording of the night battle of the Donetsk People's Republic or DPR vs Ukrainian troops in the direction of Avdiivka. The recording was widely circulated on Telegram on Wednesday, December 28, 2022. The upload statement stated that the DPR's 9th People's Militia Regiment carried out a night operation and stopped efforts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to carry out reconnaissance and deploy a platoon of motorized infantry. The fact of the delivery of ammunition and supplies to Ukrainian reconnaissance companies scattered along the forest belt was recorded by soldiers of the 9th regiment using UAVs with a built-in thermal imager. After that the Kornet ATGM operators and the artillery gun crews of the 9th regiment opened fire aimed at the Ukrainian Troops. "The Armed Forces of Ukraine hastily retreated to their original positions in the Avdeevsky fortified area," he explained.
Russia's no. 1 priority right now is training and mobilizing the war economy. They have approx. 300,000 troops in the Ukraine, half of them reservists and the other half a mix of regular and proxy forces.
The Russian airborne and naval infantry arm are mostly in Ukraine, either at the front or in operational reserve. The Russian motor-rifle and armored units are mostly in Russia and Belarus, training and integrating new personnel.
The Wagner PMC has expanded into PMC army of sorts, with an estimated (by the Pentagon) of 50,000 men. This army rivals the size of the DPR and LPR (the greatly expanded 1st and 2nd army corps plus other personnel raised by K-Oblast and Z-Oblast).
So it is overall 50,000 professional-contract Russian army personnel, 150,000 reservists, 50,000 PMC, and the 50,000 Separatist. This is very rough, more or less.
Outside of the Ukraine, the ground forces have 200,000 troops in training. They are likely an offensive reserve and considered to be so by the Ukrainian leadership. They plan to raise 17 new divisions and 5 artillery divisions, mostly based on expanding brigades. However before there could be any offensive, the soldiers need to graduate to at keast battalion, regiment, brigade level manuevers. All this training takes many months and does not materialize overnight. I think it will take all winter, and at most all of spring.
There has been intriguing Christmas day rumors of a 200,000 man Russian offensive from Belarus, towards Lyiv and a strategic victory of cutting off NATO supplies to Ukraine. However I do not believe that the Russians currently have the light infantry forces to pull off such a complex operation. The area is poor offensive terrain and is also swarming with Ukrainian territorials/security and a couple of army brigades.
The Ukrainian political-military leadership prior to Christmas claimed that Russia may launch a winter offensive in Jan 2023-March 2023. However this could be yet more propaganda trying to get more equipment from the NATO.
I do not agree. I think any major Russian offensive would be in the spring of 2023 due to training and preparation issues.
Currently the main area with an active operational reserve and training center is in the Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian command expect some use of this growing reserve, many of which were units that withdrew from Kherson west bank in the fall.
Ukraine is currently on the offensive in the Svatove-Kremmina front as they aim to take both strategic towns.
Russia is currently launching broad-front fixing attacks all over Northern and Central Donbass, mainly using Wagner PMC in nonstop squad and platoon size actions. I have noticed that nearly all analysts of the pro-Ukrainian type do not understand this as a Soviet operational concept- defend by attacking. By fixing so many Ukrainian units with a PMC they are not free to perform offensive operations elsewhere.
Kherson Oblast and Z-Oblast are turning into a massive fortified zone, filled with trench systems that are occupied by reservists. Kherson in particular have 3 echelons of trench systems.
Besides Luhansk Oblast's operational reserve, there are operational reserve pools in Z-Oblast (Melitopol) and in Northern Crimea that are growing.
I can provide a list of sources later but it will be long.
The Russian airborne and naval infantry arm are mostly in Ukraine, either at the front or in operational reserve. The Russian motor-rifle and armored units are mostly in Russia and Belarus, training and integrating new personnel.
The Wagner PMC has expanded into PMC army of sorts, with an estimated (by the Pentagon) of 50,000 men. This army rivals the size of the DPR and LPR (the greatly expanded 1st and 2nd army corps plus other personnel raised by K-Oblast and Z-Oblast).
So it is overall 50,000 professional-contract Russian army personnel, 150,000 reservists, 50,000 PMC, and the 50,000 Separatist. This is very rough, more or less.
Outside of the Ukraine, the ground forces have 200,000 troops in training. They are likely an offensive reserve and considered to be so by the Ukrainian leadership. They plan to raise 17 new divisions and 5 artillery divisions, mostly based on expanding brigades. However before there could be any offensive, the soldiers need to graduate to at keast battalion, regiment, brigade level manuevers. All this training takes many months and does not materialize overnight. I think it will take all winter, and at most all of spring.
There has been intriguing Christmas day rumors of a 200,000 man Russian offensive from Belarus, towards Lyiv and a strategic victory of cutting off NATO supplies to Ukraine. However I do not believe that the Russians currently have the light infantry forces to pull off such a complex operation. The area is poor offensive terrain and is also swarming with Ukrainian territorials/security and a couple of army brigades.
The Ukrainian political-military leadership prior to Christmas claimed that Russia may launch a winter offensive in Jan 2023-March 2023. However this could be yet more propaganda trying to get more equipment from the NATO.
I do not agree. I think any major Russian offensive would be in the spring of 2023 due to training and preparation issues.
Currently the main area with an active operational reserve and training center is in the Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian command expect some use of this growing reserve, many of which were units that withdrew from Kherson west bank in the fall.
Ukraine is currently on the offensive in the Svatove-Kremmina front as they aim to take both strategic towns.
Russia is currently launching broad-front fixing attacks all over Northern and Central Donbass, mainly using Wagner PMC in nonstop squad and platoon size actions. I have noticed that nearly all analysts of the pro-Ukrainian type do not understand this as a Soviet operational concept- defend by attacking. By fixing so many Ukrainian units with a PMC they are not free to perform offensive operations elsewhere.
Kherson Oblast and Z-Oblast are turning into a massive fortified zone, filled with trench systems that are occupied by reservists. Kherson in particular have 3 echelons of trench systems.
Besides Luhansk Oblast's operational reserve, there are operational reserve pools in Z-Oblast (Melitopol) and in Northern Crimea that are growing.
I can provide a list of sources later but it will be long.
here it comes, cruise missile wave targeting energy infrastructure again.
Vengeance Strikes: New Year's Special - Summary as of December 29, 2022, 11:00 AM ET
Over the past two days, retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian military and infrastructure facilities have resumed. Yesterday morning there was a strike on an object in the Sloboda district of Kharkov, according to some reports, a thermal power plant was hit there, after which the metro stopped in the city.
On the night of December 28-29, a massive Geranium raid was recorded on targets in the Sumy region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Kharkiv region, Kherson region, and Zaporozhye; - a fire broke out at the places of some arrivals, as in Kharkov.
This morning missile strikes began very cheerfully in the Kiev region, and then spread to virtually the entire country. Initally, Russian missiles exposed the Ukrainian air defence locations and their workings, after which the Ukrainian air defense systems were destroyed- at least in the vicinity of Odessa and Kyiv .As a result, explosions are continuing right now, lights are starting to turn off in cities, and water is disappearing in some places. At the moment, it is known that the subway has stopped in Kharkiv, and in Lviv, according to the information of the local administration, 90% of the city is already without electricity.
At the moment, we know about explosions in:
— Kyiv
— Kyiv region
— Kharkov
— Nikolaev
— Odessa
— Odessa region
— Dnepropetrovsk
— Dnepropetrovsk region
— Ivano-Frankivsk
— Lviv
— Khmelnytsky
— Vinnitsa
⚡️Blackout in:
— Kyiv
— Kharkov
— Lviv
— Odessa
— Zhytomyr
— Poltava region
Problems with water supply in:
— Zaporozhye
— Odessa
@Slavyangrad
Over the past two days, retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian military and infrastructure facilities have resumed. Yesterday morning there was a strike on an object in the Sloboda district of Kharkov, according to some reports, a thermal power plant was hit there, after which the metro stopped in the city.
On the night of December 28-29, a massive Geranium raid was recorded on targets in the Sumy region, Dnipropetrovsk region, Kharkiv region, Kherson region, and Zaporozhye; - a fire broke out at the places of some arrivals, as in Kharkov.
This morning missile strikes began very cheerfully in the Kiev region, and then spread to virtually the entire country. Initally, Russian missiles exposed the Ukrainian air defence locations and their workings, after which the Ukrainian air defense systems were destroyed- at least in the vicinity of Odessa and Kyiv .As a result, explosions are continuing right now, lights are starting to turn off in cities, and water is disappearing in some places. At the moment, it is known that the subway has stopped in Kharkiv, and in Lviv, according to the information of the local administration, 90% of the city is already without electricity.
At the moment, we know about explosions in:
— Kyiv
— Kyiv region
— Kharkov
— Nikolaev
— Odessa
— Odessa region
— Dnepropetrovsk
— Dnepropetrovsk region
— Ivano-Frankivsk
— Lviv
— Khmelnytsky
— Vinnitsa
⚡️Blackout in:
— Kyiv
— Kharkov
— Lviv
— Odessa
— Zhytomyr
— Poltava region
Problems with water supply in:
— Zaporozhye
— Odessa
@Slavyangrad
Blog entry at @milchronicles. I don't know about the 30:1 ratios. I always have doubts on personnel claims on both sides. But it does seem to me the Ukrainian side is reaching carnage proportions. There were posted pictures of huge mounds of discarded bloodied clothing outside of Ukrainian hospitals from the dead and wounded. Later these mounds were cleaned up to prevent more pictures going into social media.
From @milchronicles
The representative of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Sergei Cherevaty, said that in the battles for Bakhmut (Artyomovsk), the RF Armed Forces suffer heavy losses. However, the facts say otherwise: the Bakhmut garrison is seriously depleted and is, if not on the verge of losing combat capability, then on the verge of a serious crisis.
According to the Military Chronicle, by December 2022, in terms of the number of combat-ready and deployed guns "Hyacinth-B", "Hyacinth-S" and other self-propelled guns, howitzers D-20, D-30, as well as rocket artillery, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are inferior to the allied forces by about 100 once.
The activity of Russian artillery near Bakhmut is such that for one of our killed there are 30 enemy soldiers killed or seriously wounded. At the same time, due to the maximum load on the medical service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city, only one of the three wounded can be evacuated. By January, the situation is predicted to worsen: every second wounded soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will die from artillery fire.
It is important to note that the Ukrainian army is throwing new forces in bad weather at positions already targeted by Russian artillery, which dramatically increases the number of victims.
At the same time, Wagner PMC and the Russian Armed Forces are fighting directly in urban areas. The front line currently passes through the southern and eastern quarters of the city, in the area of Turgenev, Yuzhnaya, Bakhmut Cossacks, Independence and Vatutin streets. Heavy urban battles were recorded in the area of Kotsyubinsky, Lomonosov and Lumumba streets.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, trying to delay the collapse of the first line of defense, send there mobilized without combat experience from Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporozhye and Sumy regions.
After several unsuccessful attempts to recapture the lost Ozeryanovka, the head of the Kharkov garrison, Brigadier General Sergei Melnik, arrived to clarify the losses. Near Soledar, where the 10th and 128th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer heavy losses, the commander of the Khortytsya group of troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Alexander Syrsky, was sent.
The sources of the Military Chronicle in the Bakhmut direction associate their arrival with the catastrophic situation of the units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Next entry are missile attacks described in detail. To add, given the pictures from other channels, the Ukrainian AD systems were also hunted down and hit once they were exposed launching at the decoys. Everything else follows the previous MO of the attacks.
Entry:
What is known about the attacks on Ukraine on December 29: the main thing at the moment
According to the Military Chronicle, warehouses with weapons and equipment, as well as places of deployment of air defense systems in Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Nikolaev regions, were hit.
Also, the Geran-2 drones hit targets in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, where at least two military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were also hit, one of which was a warehouse with artillery ammunition.
Before the cruise missiles hit, target simulators with Luneberger lenses appeared over most objects to open air defense areas. After the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down false targets, the main phase of the attack began.
A massive blow was delivered on the morning of December 29 by Caliber, Kh-101, and Kh-22 and Kh-32 air-launched cruise missiles. In total, according to Ukrainian sources, at least 120 missiles were involved in the attack.
In Kyiv, the subway was stopped after the strike. It is reported about the defeat of an industrial enterprise in the Goloseevsky district.
In Kharkiv, after the arrivals of cruise missiles, there is a partial lack of electricity, and the metro does not work in the city. Interruptions with communication, the Internet and water are observed.
In Ivano-Frankivsk, an infrastructure (energy) facility was hit by a blow.
In Nikolaev, at least two objects were hit by a blow: military and energy
In Odessa, presumably, an air defense basing point and a transformer substation near the airport were hit by a blow. Also, a blow was struck at the 330/110 kV Usatovo substation, 10 km north of Odessa.
In Lvov, energy facilities were hit by a blow. 90% of the city is without electricity and water, the movement of trams and trolleybuses has been stopped.
Also, arrivals were recorded in Sumy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnitsa, Poltava, Ternopil and Khmelnytsky regions.
From @milchronicles
The representative of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Sergei Cherevaty, said that in the battles for Bakhmut (Artyomovsk), the RF Armed Forces suffer heavy losses. However, the facts say otherwise: the Bakhmut garrison is seriously depleted and is, if not on the verge of losing combat capability, then on the verge of a serious crisis.
According to the Military Chronicle, by December 2022, in terms of the number of combat-ready and deployed guns "Hyacinth-B", "Hyacinth-S" and other self-propelled guns, howitzers D-20, D-30, as well as rocket artillery, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are inferior to the allied forces by about 100 once.
The activity of Russian artillery near Bakhmut is such that for one of our killed there are 30 enemy soldiers killed or seriously wounded. At the same time, due to the maximum load on the medical service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city, only one of the three wounded can be evacuated. By January, the situation is predicted to worsen: every second wounded soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will die from artillery fire.
It is important to note that the Ukrainian army is throwing new forces in bad weather at positions already targeted by Russian artillery, which dramatically increases the number of victims.
At the same time, Wagner PMC and the Russian Armed Forces are fighting directly in urban areas. The front line currently passes through the southern and eastern quarters of the city, in the area of Turgenev, Yuzhnaya, Bakhmut Cossacks, Independence and Vatutin streets. Heavy urban battles were recorded in the area of Kotsyubinsky, Lomonosov and Lumumba streets.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, trying to delay the collapse of the first line of defense, send there mobilized without combat experience from Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporozhye and Sumy regions.
After several unsuccessful attempts to recapture the lost Ozeryanovka, the head of the Kharkov garrison, Brigadier General Sergei Melnik, arrived to clarify the losses. Near Soledar, where the 10th and 128th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer heavy losses, the commander of the Khortytsya group of troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Alexander Syrsky, was sent.
The sources of the Military Chronicle in the Bakhmut direction associate their arrival with the catastrophic situation of the units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Next entry are missile attacks described in detail. To add, given the pictures from other channels, the Ukrainian AD systems were also hunted down and hit once they were exposed launching at the decoys. Everything else follows the previous MO of the attacks.
Entry:
What is known about the attacks on Ukraine on December 29: the main thing at the moment
According to the Military Chronicle, warehouses with weapons and equipment, as well as places of deployment of air defense systems in Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Nikolaev regions, were hit.
Also, the Geran-2 drones hit targets in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, where at least two military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were also hit, one of which was a warehouse with artillery ammunition.
Before the cruise missiles hit, target simulators with Luneberger lenses appeared over most objects to open air defense areas. After the air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shot down false targets, the main phase of the attack began.
A massive blow was delivered on the morning of December 29 by Caliber, Kh-101, and Kh-22 and Kh-32 air-launched cruise missiles. In total, according to Ukrainian sources, at least 120 missiles were involved in the attack.
In Kyiv, the subway was stopped after the strike. It is reported about the defeat of an industrial enterprise in the Goloseevsky district.
In Kharkiv, after the arrivals of cruise missiles, there is a partial lack of electricity, and the metro does not work in the city. Interruptions with communication, the Internet and water are observed.
In Ivano-Frankivsk, an infrastructure (energy) facility was hit by a blow.
In Nikolaev, at least two objects were hit by a blow: military and energy
In Odessa, presumably, an air defense basing point and a transformer substation near the airport were hit by a blow. Also, a blow was struck at the 330/110 kV Usatovo substation, 10 km north of Odessa.
In Lvov, energy facilities were hit by a blow. 90% of the city is without electricity and water, the movement of trams and trolleybuses has been stopped.
Also, arrivals were recorded in Sumy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnitsa, Poltava, Ternopil and Khmelnytsky regions.
How is the weather in Ukraine on the ground anyways? The temperature is above zero and right now we're having a warm winter.
One of the assumptions of a rapid winter offensive is that the roads can't be overly muddy and presumably that some key routes need to be frozen over.
I think a new offensive will only be started after the battle of Bakhmut is over.
One of the assumptions of a rapid winter offensive is that the roads can't be overly muddy and presumably that some key routes need to be frozen over.
I think a new offensive will only be started after the battle of Bakhmut is over.
Footage of a self-made military communications relay of the Ukrainian army. The installation was created by craftsmen, on the chassis of the Soviet Volga GAZ-24-10 converted into a pickup truck. There are no technical details of the communication repeater.
Rare footage of the work of the operators of the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system on Ukrainian GMLRS missiles fired from the HIMARS MLRS has appeared. The results of the attack, 4 out of 6 HIMARS missiles were shot down, the consumption of Pantsir missiles was 5 pieces. Good performance for air defense systems, especially considering that HIMARS missiles are difficult targets. Judging by the end of the video, part of the fragments from the HIMARS MLRS missiles hit the Pantsir air defense system.
The work of Russian pilots in Ukraine is shown quite often, but no one shows the life of pilots. Footage of the field camp of Russian pilots in Ukraine.
The Buk-M1 air defense system of the Ukrainian army came under attack from the Russian Lancet kamikaze drone. After the impact of the Lancet drone, the missiles of the Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system exploded.
A batch of modernized T-90M "Proryv" tanks entered service with the Russian army. At the training ground, instructors train crews taking into account modern combat experience. One of the commanders spoke about these combat vehicles.
Rare footage of the work of the operators of the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense missile system on Ukrainian GMLRS missiles fired from the HIMARS MLRS has appeared. The results of the attack, 4 out of 6 HIMARS missiles were shot down, the consumption of Pantsir missiles was 5 pieces. Good performance for air defense systems, especially considering that HIMARS missiles are difficult targets. Judging by the end of the video, part of the fragments from the HIMARS MLRS missiles hit the Pantsir air defense system.
The work of Russian pilots in Ukraine is shown quite often, but no one shows the life of pilots. Footage of the field camp of Russian pilots in Ukraine.
The Buk-M1 air defense system of the Ukrainian army came under attack from the Russian Lancet kamikaze drone. After the impact of the Lancet drone, the missiles of the Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system exploded.
A batch of modernized T-90M "Proryv" tanks entered service with the Russian army. At the training ground, instructors train crews taking into account modern combat experience. One of the commanders spoke about these combat vehicles.
There was another missile attack today, Ukranian sources report +120 missiles.
Several instances of S-300 debris falling on local houses and claim of an alleged SAM site being hit as well.
Meanwhile the Ukranians had another go at Engels and Belgorod.
Several instances of S-300 debris falling on local houses and claim of an alleged SAM site being hit as well.
Meanwhile the Ukranians had another go at Engels and Belgorod.