The War in the Ukraine

Another Su-35 with assymetric SEAD/CAP configuration, 2x R-73, 1x Kh-31P, 1(?)x R-37M and 2x R-77-1

Strike of Tornado-G rockets on Ukranian positions

Ukranian soldiers with the nazi-era balkenkreuz painted on a BMP-3

An Ukranian MiG-29 was shot down yesterday with the loss of the pilot

Ukranian soldier records herself saying that all civilians left in Bakhmut are separatists and such should get fucked.

An article about the dwindling Ukranian SAM stockpiles while also pushing some of their bs regarding interception rates. They quote Yuriy Ignat who just yesterday said they can't really intercept Shahed nor Iskanders with S300 and Buks

Seems Russian are starting to enter Bakhmut itself


S300V working from Donbass


Newsweek article about Wagner targeting american group Mozart(though the article tries to whitewash them as an NGO, because NGO's train soldiers, apparently) in Bakhmut. It's an interesting clash of stories since we have the previous Ukranian soldier saying that all the civilians in Bakhmut are separatist and then we have this guy saying all the civilians are terrified of the Russians.

Other interesting bits:

Ukraine closely guards its casualty figures, but its forces are believed to be suffering badly around Bakhmut.

"They've been taking extraordinarily high casualties," Milburn said of the units training with Mozart. "The numbers you are reading in the media about 70 percent and above casualties being routine are not exaggerated."

Despite their "tremendous morale," Milburn said the defenders "have an acute 'regeneration problem,' which means getting new recruits into the line as quickly as possible." This means those being thrown into the fight have little beyond basic training.

"Typically about 80 percent of our intake who are coming off of the line have never even fired a weapon before," Milburn said. "We've got our work cut out for us."

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Ukranians fired a Tochka-U into Bryansk, didn't hit much, though

Two entries from @milchronicles. Seeing the heaviest tank and afv battles in the entire war with heavy losses to both sides ---

How many tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were lost in Bakhmut? The equipment remaining in service with the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut is on the verge of failure.

Most of the T-64, T-64BV and Polish T-72M1 tanks were lost by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the battles in the north of the city in the Podgorodny area, during several counterattacks in the south in the area of Kurdyumovka, Zelenopolye, Ozaryanovka. Tanks were also lost in the battles near Opytny, where Ukrainian forces tried to stop the advance of the RF Armed Forces, but retreated due to high losses.

Power outages and a lack of spare parts prevent fast repair of equipment.

Almost all vehicles have high gun wear, and the crews of Ukrainian Armed Forces tanks regularly encounter bursts of ammunition in the gun breech, after which the vehicle is put out of action.

The activity of the artillery of Wagner PMC and the RF Armed Forces also led to high losses of tanks: when a platoon (company) of tanks is detected, heavy artillery fire of high density opens on armored vehicles, which does not allow the equipment to maneuver and fire.

There are also tactical errors. Short daylight hours limit the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in observation and reconnaissance using UAVs, and cold weather forces them to keep vehicles with running engines, which greatly unmasks them and makes them a target for sabotage groups of the RF Armed Forces with Kornet anti-tank systems and Irony surveillance devices that detect enemy equipment in the dark at a distance of 7 km.


Major highway got taken over the Russians and it's implications, according to @milchronicles ---

On December 8, the leadership of the brigade reported to the headquarters of the Vostok command that the RF Armed Forces had taken Geological Street, the road from the city that leads to neighboring Krasnogorovka, under fire control.

The road is under fire from Russian long-range artillery - self-propelled guns "Msta-S" and "Hyacinth-S" caliber 152 mm. In addition, it is controlled by drones and helicopters of the army aviation of the RF Armed Forces.

It was from the neighboring Krasnogorovka that the brigade received ammunition, as well as reinforcements in manpower. Without this, she risks being surrounded and completely destroyed. Any attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to transfer reinforcements to Marinka will now be fraught with the risk of losses.

At the end of November, units of the 79th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were pushed back to the area of \u200b\u200bthe gas facilities of Maryinka. Then they lost control of their positions in the area of the tire repair plant and the Nikolsky elevator in the southwestern part of the city.

Also, during the offensive of the Russian forces on Maryinka, fire control was established in the area of the ATP 11420 motor transport enterprise and over the fork in the O-0530 highway, which deprives the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the opportunity to effectively counterattack the RF Armed Forces.

Heard that Melitopol has been hit
Any further confirmation?

Tam said:

Almost all vehicles have high gun wear, and the crews of Ukrainian Armed Forces tanks regularly encounter bursts of ammunition in the gun breech, after which the vehicle is put out of action.

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Another important lesson for the west. No matter how much superior western tanks may be, guns still wear out. For a prolonged war you need enough tanks to rotate them through maintenance as well.

An assessment and dialogue on the ongoing War in Ukraine: Russia VS NATO, between Dr. Michael Vlahos (former Defense and state Department officer, worked at the CIA, taught at various War Colleges in the U.S. and Mexico) and Col. Douglas MacGregor (ret.) the last U.S. military officer who had an actual tank on tank battle under his command during (Battle of 73 Easting) NATO Gen. Wesley Clark, Chief War Planner for Operation Allied Force (Kosovo War 1999) Army iconoclast for writing provocative books one of which is the infamous but sort of influential "Breaking the Phalanx" and his most recent book Margin of Victory.

It's a long video, but nonetheless illuminating, interesting, informative, and educational to a person that's interested to hear a perspective from an actual combat officer who's been involved on actual big land battle circa 1991; a man who's been involved from the tactical to strategic planning and joint command. Most importantly, a man that's actually grounded in reality and not living in fantasy woo woo talk as most of us here tend to do, who's combat mission or accomplishment to speak of is playing Call of Duty or airsoft.

infinity_wor;d said:

That 100,000 KIA is just too small. I mean it, for I can't believe the Ukraine government can and will show their true losses to the EU.

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The thing is, Russia MoD is also lying about the losses of Ukraine: they only report at most half of the AFU's losses in their report.
In their daily brief recently, they just skip the things happening in Bakhmut.

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google translation:

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When Russians report casualty numbers they don't include DPR/LPR. I think Ukrainians are doing a similar thing with many of the newly formed territorial defence units, paramilitary and mercenary groups. Unlike Russian republican forces however these make up the majority of Ukrainian forces.

Temstar said:

As for causality numbers:

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1200 poles confirmed KIA.

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. So unless you honest believe averaged over the war 10% of the AFU's KIA are poles, which would extrapolate to more than 10% of the troops fighting now are poles given they didn't enter the war on day 1. That seems highly unlikely.

Poland's figures are more likely to be correct because they have less incentive to hide it. So the questions is what percentage of the troops fighter under Ukraine's banner are poles? Considering Ukraine claim they have more than 1 million men mobilized I think even 1% of that being pole is being generous. So going by polish KIA numbers that would put the total KIA at 130,000, if not more.

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1,200 Poles in one graveyard. That's not including dead Poles who were left on the battlefield, blown into pieces, etc. I think the involvement of Polish soldiers is Polish government sanctioned and is much higher than is being admitted to, definitely more than 1%.

There was recent news a few days ago Poland has started a soft conscription of their forces. If they continue losing soldiers they'll put a restriction on males leaving the country like the Ukraine did.

B777LR said:

Another important lesson for the west. No matter how much superior western tanks may be, guns still wear out. For a prolonged war you need enough tanks to rotate them through maintenance as well.

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No you cannot rotate them, it's a blasphemy, salvage and repair yards are bad press when you find them with a UAV. Way better to paint damaged equipments and say it's from the enemy and blowing it up no ?

The last long term war that have been fought and clearly won by western countries is WW2. The rest was inconclusive more or less. Most intervention was bombing campaign for government changes or skirmishes. No need for weapon to have rotations in these situations.

Hey, didn't someone just tell us a few days ago that the west was totally not involved in this war?

“In January, soldiers of the 45th Commando were deployed on short notice – from Northern Norway – for the evacuation procedures of the British Embassy in Kiev in Poland,” Magowan wrote. “Later, in April, they returned to the country to re-establish the diplomatic mission, providing protection to personnel. During both phases, the commandos supported other covert operations in an extremely sensitive environment and with a high level of political and military risk”.

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sheogorath said:

Hey, didn't someone just tell us a few days ago that the west was totally not involved in this war?

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theyre the same type of bozos who would think USA lost to Kim Il Sung and the KPA in Korea

Forgive me ladies and gentlemen for placing a CNN article in this forum but The information written between the actual words in these articles today are telling a very interesting story, at lewst for me. These systems you don't just hand over to civilians rounded up off the streets, quick shipment (within days quoting from the article) and say we did it Joe!

What this says to me is mission creep. These need to be crewed by the previously mentioned expanding US presence for "monitoring" US weapons (anybody know what monitoring means these day?)

So why Patriots? They have a dismal track record in actual performance VS iranian drone attacks amd even piece meal Iraqi ancient Scuds. Russia is using Iranian drones alongside some of the most advanced ballistic and cruise missiles in the world today, combined with a seemingly endless stockpile of Soviet era war stock all of which Iran itself doesn't have access to, aside from its drones.

Why not some S300 that Ukraine itself says are effective? Well I think the answer is obvious.

I have a feeling the US is getting desperate with this move if they actually do it. How will Russia counter? Well they already know how but we don't. We can only hypothesize until we see it.

For me, Patriot looks to be a slow lumbering relatively fixed target begging for an anti radiation missile, it has a never been tested in a high intesity warzone such as this, other then Iraq which is not even comparable. it has faced fire again in a low intensity conflict and performed dismally defending against drone swarms.

Whats left after this? F16s which will gare just as well as MiG29s? There isn't much left the US can do short of entering the war and at that point we know what happens.

What do you guys think?