Here is the full video in case there are any clues.
The Q-5, J-7, J-8 and older PLAAF aircraft
- Thread starter adeptitus
- Start date
I was looking through scramble today for some clues. Looks like there is basically about 3 brigades left that are still listed as flying and not part of flight school or part of J-8FR unit.
No non-J-8FR unit left for J-8 program
Also we are down to 4 JH-7A units and no JH-7 units left.
We are finally getting to the point where we are probably 1 year from full J-7 and J-8 retirements and maybe 3 years from JH-7/A retirement.
Also looking through this, I see no real Su-27 and J-11 units left. J-11B seems like the least modern flanker we can find.
So, I would imagine that J-10A and Su-30 and any remaining J-11/Su-27 units should be replaced over next 3-5 years, maybe sold to allies (in the case of J-10A).
Does this seem about right to everyone? @Deino ?
No non-J-8FR unit left for J-8 program
Also we are down to 4 JH-7A units and no JH-7 units left.
We are finally getting to the point where we are probably 1 year from full J-7 and J-8 retirements and maybe 3 years from JH-7/A retirement.
Also looking through this, I see no real Su-27 and J-11 units left. J-11B seems like the least modern flanker we can find.
So, I would imagine that J-10A and Su-30 and any remaining J-11/Su-27 units should be replaced over next 3-5 years, maybe sold to allies (in the case of J-10A).
Does this seem about right to everyone? @Deino ?
lcloo
Captain
With the present production rates of J20 (all variants) and J16, and also expected production of J35A, I agreed with you.
Assume:
J20 production rate at 100 per year X 5 years = 500
J16 at 100 per year X 5 years = 500
J35A at incremental rates of 10 + 25 + 25 + 50 + 50 over 5 years = 160 (assumed production starts in 2025)
Large strike UCAV (eg Jetank and CH series) expected to be produced in several hundreds to replace JH7A
Loyal wingman in both air to air and strike variants expected to be produced in several hundreds
J-16 at 100 per year ?? SAC can produce if there is demand from PLAAF.
not true..
we don't know exact numbers but J-16 alone production can be around 40 per year.. SAC can produce much more than that. all depend on PLAAF orders.
I agree just based on estimated number of airframes in services. 100 per year would be quite a lot considering they already have a large fleet.
J16 production at this point doesn’t make a lot of sense.
you need to buy more j20 than that. Production cost for j20 and j16 is pretty comparable.
j35 ramp up better be faster than that. At this point, you need to go 5th gen only. That means flanker production should wind down over a few years.