The Q-5, J-7, J-8 and older PLAAF aircraft

Totoro said:

Scramble.nl lists the following number of frontline brigades getting J-16s.
2 in 2017, 2 in 2018, zero in 2019, 2 in 2020, 1 in 2021, 3 in 2022, 1 in 2023 and 3 in 2024.
Those figures are probably best normalized over the period as probably years when 3 were seen per year were like first in january, second in the summer and third in december. so the following year could then be like first in summer and the next one may've not come until january of the next year.
Anyway, it'd suggest j-16 production hasn't really let up, but caught a different cadence.
Important to note is that delivery to a brigade doesn't need to be 30 airframes per year. more likely is that 10-15 so were delivered one year, then 10-15 more the next year. then possibly 0-10 more in the third year.

I am sure @Deino can come over and give his assessment of new J-16 airframe numbers since 2022.

Click to expand...

tphuang said:

I was looking through scramble today for some clues. Looks like there is basically about 3 brigades left that are still listed as flying and not part of flight school or part of J-8FR unit.

No non-J-8FR unit left for J-8 program

Also we are down to 4 JH-7A units and no JH-7 units left.

We are finally getting to the point where we are probably 1 year from full J-7 and J-8 retirements and maybe 3 years from JH-7/A retirement.

Also looking through this, I see no real Su-27 and J-11 units left. J-11B seems like the least modern flanker we can find.

So, I would imagine that J-10A and Su-30 and any remaining J-11/Su-27 units should be replaced over next 3-5 years, maybe sold to allies (in the case of J-10A).

Does this seem about right to everyone? @Deino ?

Click to expand...